Using online Delphi software for rapid decision making

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"Using online Delphi software for rapid decision
making"

• Dr. Andrew King
• Dept of Mechanical Engineering,
• University of Bristol,
• Bristol BS8 1TR

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Technical Failure
Tacoma Narrows Bridge, 1940, Resonance
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Technical Failure
De Havilland Comet, 1953-1954 Fatigue
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Technical Failure

• A cessation of proper functioning or
  performance
• Lack of scientific understanding
• Poor manufacture
• These tend to be specific to individual products
  and lead to better design/safety standards which
  are mandatory.
• Technical failures rarely happen twice because
  lessons are more easily learnt.

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Non Technical Failure

• Failure can also mean not achieving the desired
  end
• Whilst projects can fail for technical
  reasons, more often they fail to achieve the
  starting aim because of non-technical reasons.
• Specifically a Non Technical Failure is any
  significant falling short of the customers
  requirements.
• To the customer any failure is unacceptable!
  Often NTF can happen again, and again.

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NTF Types

• Quality a failure to do what was initially
  wanted or with all the functionality promised.
• Functional quality
• Conformance quality
• Cost a failure to stay within the development
  budget or operating cost levels
• Purchase/operating cost
• Return on Investment/Profit margin
• Time a failure to be delivered when expected
• Event deadlines
• Competitor deadlines

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Build me a moat!

• Around the Castle
• 3 m wide, 2 m deep

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Reasons for Failure
Source Standish Group Scientific American, 2001
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Recognise this?
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Requirements Analysis

• At the start of any project it is important to
  be sure the requirements are correct, complete
  and convincing.
• If not, the project will either fail to complete
  (due to disagreement) or complete but fail to
  deliver (due to distortion).
• ..but finding the full requirements is very
  difficult!

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Different Stakeholder Views

• In almost every technical project a variety of
  different groups are involved.

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The Delphi Technique

• Developed by the RAND Corp in 1960s.
• Asks open questions to a group (single or double
  blind)
• Gathers opinion not just facts
• Is peer reviewed by the other people.

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Using Delphi Results
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Web Delphi Software

• Paper Delphi has high time, effort and admin
  load.
• Professional Version demonstration now

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Surveys Done/Active/Planned

• DMRG Team Spirit
• How to make the group work better
• Remanufacturing/Upgrade Potential
• With Xerox, Panasonic, RM plc
• Future direction of IED
• Reversing the falling membership trend
• Establishing a student exchange
• UoB PolyU, Hong Kong
• ESRC Life Extension Network
• Diverse stakeholder opinion

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Software Development

• Phase 1
• complete, except for infoAVs
• Phase 2
• phase 0, user question commenting agreement
• phase 1a user answer pre-ranking commenting
• Phase 3
• system reports on user influence