Observing and Understanding Arctic Environmental Change

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Observing and Understanding Arctic Environmental
Change

• A series of three workshops co-sponsored by
  SEARCH, S4D, AON, and ARCSS
• Peter Schlosser
• IBM Conference Center, Palisades, NY, 3/17
  3/20, 2008
• http//www.arcus.org/search/meetings/2008/aow/

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Arctic/Global Change in the Media
our ability to imagine and purposefully shape
the future
ACIA paints grim picture
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Origin of SEARCH

• The Arctic has been characterized in recent
  decades by a complex of interrelated, pan-arctic
  changes occurring across terrestrial, oceanic,
  atmospheric and human systems
• Observed physical changes have large impacts on
  arctic ecosystems and society
• Anthropogenic activities contribute to observed
  change.

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SEARCH Objectives
The overall objective of SEARCH is to Understand
the nature, extent and future development of the
system-scale change presently seen in the Arctic.
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SEARCH elements
This requires

• Examining if such changes have happened before
  (paleo studies)
• Following the evolution of the changes
  (integrated Arctic system observing system)
• Understanding the forcing mechanisms and
  feedbacks that control the changes (synthesis and
  modeling)
• Understanding the interaction between changes in
  the physical/chemical, biological, and human
  domains (Human/Environment Interface)

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Overall SEARCH Strategy
Science Plan Implementation Strategy
athttp//arcus.org/SEARCH/index.php
Focus of IPY AO
AON workshop Lagrangian Platform Workshop
Sea ice minimum workshop
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SEARCH Observing Change

• SEARCH, through AON, needs to observe the
  transition of the Arctic system from its present
  state into a warmer world
• Most likely the Greenhouse World will occupy a
  new state
• The data flow from the observing system will
  provide insight into the nature and rate of
  change
• The observing system will inform the
  Understanding Change and Responding to Change
  activities
• At the same time, the final implementation will
  be guided by the latter two elements

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SEARCH Understanding Change

• SEARCH needs to provide projections of the
  evolution of the Arctic system across domains
• Emphasis has been on long term projections and
  reductions of error envelopes, but short-term
  predictions are of similar importance
• Projections of Arctic Change are important input
  to Responding to Change activities
• Understanding Change projects will contribute to
  optimization of Observing System

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SEARCH Responding to Change

• Ultimate question for society and decision makers
  is how to respond to Arctic Change (for example,
  what is the right mix of adaptation and
  mitigation?)
• This element of SEARCH requires, for example,
  applications research and research in decision
  making under (environmental) risk
• Recent change in public (and political)
  perception of Climate Change led to significant
  (abrupt) change in focus from making the case for
  change. Public and decision makers expect options
  for solutions from the science community

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Motivation of workshops

• The drastic arctic sea ice retreat observed in
  2007 underscores the immediate need for increased
  integration and coordination. The sea-ice cover
  retreated to well below its previous record
  minimum extent, with potentially substantial
  physical, biological and socio-economic impacts
  on the Arctic.
• This event raises a number of important questions
  with respect to our ability to forecast similarly
  large events on short (i.e. this upcoming year),
  inter-annual, and decadal timescales, and also
  our strategy for combining observational efforts
  with modeling studies directed at improving our
  understanding of arctic change.

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Sea-ice trends ice extent
http//nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/200
70810_index.html
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Impact of workshops

• Strengthened connections between international
  arctic observing efforts and Understanding
  Change, Responding to Change and Arctic synthesis
  projects (ARCSS/SASS/DAMOCLES).
• Improved understanding of the remarkable sea ice
  decline in 2007 and repercussions through the
  components of the arctic system.
• Specific guidancethrough recommendations in the
  workshop summaryfor improving the observational,
  modeling, and synthesis efforts to track,
  interpret, and respond to either accelerated
  change or recovery following the 2007 minimum in
  the sea ice cover.
• Guidance (through recommendations to NSF and the
  EU) for enhancing observational approaches and
  technologies to optimize performance and
  adaptability in the rapidly changing Arctic.

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The Opportunity

• Transition into Greenhouse World is historic
  moment
• Arctic community is asked to deliver significant
  contributions to one of the dominant scientific
  problems and societal challenges of our time
  (historic challenge)
• Positioning of Arctic community at center of
  global change (historic transformation)

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Perspectives

• The Arctic community is faced by the challenge to
  project the future state of the Arctic system
• This requires close integration of observations,
  synthesis, and modeling activities on an
  international level
• The amplified signal predicted for and observed
  in the Arctic presents a major opportunity to
  place Arctic Environmental Change studies at the
  center of Global Change research

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