Future Aerosol Emissions From Industrial and Utility Boilers

1
Future Aerosol Emissions From Industrial and
Utility Boilers

• Soonkyu Jung 1
• Tami. C. Bond2, and David G. Streets3
• 1,2 Department of Civil and Environmental
  Engineering,
• University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,
  Urbana, Illinois, USA
• 3 Decision and Information Sciences,
• Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois,
  USA

2
Combustion
Aerosols are an important pollutant in urban
areas. PM2.5 are considered to have significant
adverse effect to human health and stringent
regulations to reduce PM2.5 emission have been
issued in many world regions.
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3
Black Carbon and Climate

• Black carbon has been the second largest climate
  forcing after CO2. - Jacobson (2000)
• Combined with a reduction of black carbon
  emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2
  emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could
  lead to a decline in the rate of global warming,
  reducing the danger of dramatic climate change
• (Hansen et al, 2000)

4
Radiative Forcing
(IPCC,2001)
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Challenges

• Warm or cool?
• OC scatter light back to space thus acting to
  reduce the warming
• BC warms climate by absorbing sun lights
• Determining the ratio is a difficult task
• Where How much of the BC/OC comes from?
• Different Combustion process / Control
• Historical future emission
• Lack of historical data

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Aerosol-Climate Study Overview
Climate Model
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Aerosol Emissions from Combustion
Aerosol from deferent fuel Combustion technology
have totally different properties amount By
Using this idea, we develop aerosol emission
inventory
www.upstate.edu/ pathenvi/basics/bas1.html
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Total Emissions
BOND ET AL., 2004
Where, j species k country l sector
m fuel type n fuel/technology
combination Em Emissions FC fuel consumption,
kg/yr EF Emission Factor specific to
fuel/technology combination (including the
effects of control devices), g/kg X Fraction of
fuel of this sector consumed by a specific
technology, where ?X 1 for each fuel and sector
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Determination of the total emission
Diesel Super emitter
Sector Transport
Fuel type
Fuel Consumption
Emission Factor
Fuel Fraction
0.6
12
0.05
2kg pm
1,000kg
0.95
1.5
1.425
Diesel normal
EFpm,g/kg
0.94
2.0
0.15
0.05
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Present Day Estimate of BC/OC- Bond et al. 2004
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Which of these will change in the future?
Fuel Change
Coal-fired, high BC
Gas or electric, low BC
www.sacecs.co.za
en.wikipedia.org
We Use IPCC SRES Scenario for fuel estimation
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Which of these will change in the future?
Technology Change
Old burner - high BC
Modern Combustor, low BC
www.sacecs.co.za
Google.com
We Develop Dynamic Simulation tool For future
technology splits
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Which of these will change in the future?
Emission Control Technology
Electrostatic precipitator, high collection
efficiency
Cyclone, low collection efficiency
Street, 2004
We Develop Dynamic Simulation tool For future
technology splits
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Governing factors of technology change

• Diffusion Studies suggest
• Adoption rate of new technology is
• -Positively related to the Benefits
  Technology popularity
• -Negatively related to the Costs
• We use (based on historical trend simulation)
• Emission Standards of species ( Regulation )
• Technology popularity (e.g. Installed Capacity)
• Technology limitation (Newer technology takes
  time to be used in Developing countries)
• Economic situation

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Drivers Regulation and Control Efficiency
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Drivers Government Regulation
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Drivers Capacity- Case of Cyclone Furnace
Uncontrolled NO Concentrations for Types of
combustion (Air Pollution Control Manual, 1992,
p. 216)
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Technology Choice Probabilities- Case of Cyclone
Furnace
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Drivers - Boiler Population Trend
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Estimate Boiler Age Distribution- From Fuel
Consumption Data
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Emission Standards Modeling- Particulate Matter
over GDP per Capita
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Drivers Industry Sector Change
Agriculture Dominant ----? Service Sector
Dominant
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Description of The Model
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Schematic diagram for developing future emissions
inventory model
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Preliminary Result

• Total global coal-boiler capacity is estimated to
  increase (in all scenarios , Ranging from
  394-605 for the power sector)
• Use of coal boilers for power generation is
  expected to be high in many world regions,
  because the demand for electricity is expected to
  increase in all scenarios (from 340-540) and
  use of coal for electricity generation to remain
  high (20-31)

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Preliminary Result (Cont.)

• The boiler capacity in South Asia is forecasted
  to take the largest of the 2050 values of 9-20
  under most scenarios except A2 scenario which
  expects USA as the largest share

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Selected global combustion technology changes
(a)
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Questions?

• Thank you

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Description of The Model- Simulate initial
Distribution of Boilers

• Create Boiler inventory
• Combustor Type
• Control Equipment Type
• Boiler Age (Estimated from Fuel Consumption)
• Capacity Distribution

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Description of The Model- Run the Model for a
Step Year

• Examine Boiler Age and Retire Boilers
• Check New Regulation and Upgrade Control
  Equipment
• Calculate amount of capacity of boilers in this
  step year
• Determine the firing type and control device

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Description of The Model- Determine Emissions

• Technology Splits from simulation will be
  interfaced with Emission Inventory program

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17 World Regions in this model (From IMAGE Group
2002)
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Boiler Capacity Distribution- Assume Follow
S-Shape Curve
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(No Transcript)
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SRES Scenarios

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What are the IPCC SRES scenarios
Globalisation
A1 Balanced A1 Fossil A1 Technology
B1
Emphasis on sustainability and equity
Emphasis on material wealth
A2
B2
Regionalisation
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IPCC Scenarios
Globalisation
Globalised, extensive Sustainable development
Globalised, intensive Market-Forces
Emphasis on material wealth
Emphasis on sustainability and equity
Regional, intensive Clash of civilisations
Regional, extensive Mixed green bag
Regionalisation /fragmentation
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Impacts

• Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm
  drains/sewers
• Changes in circulation and the implications for
  air pollution
• Coastal cities and tidal surge
• Implications of increased wind storm

IPCC Working Group, 2002
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Present Day Estimate of BC/OC- Bond et al. 2004
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Previous Estimates of Aerosol Emissions From
Fossil Fuel Combustion (Tg/Year)
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Calculation

• j species
• BC( Black Carbon) or OC( Organic Carbon)
• k country
• Country level
• (in large country, State or Province level)
• l sector
• Residential, Industry, Power, Transport, Biomass
  Burning
• m fuel type
• Diesel, Hard Coal, Gasoline, Wood
• n fuel/technology combination
• Fuel used by a specific technology

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Total Emission(2-2)
Sector
Fuel
Fuel/Technology combination
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Emission Factors (EF)

• Emission Factors of BC and OC ( j BC or OC )
• EFBCEFPM F1.0 FBC Fcont,
• Where
• EFPM the bulk particulate emission factor, g/kg
  
• F1.0 fraction of emissions with diameters
  smaller than 1µm
• FBC fraction of fine particulate matter that is
  black carbon
• Fcont the fraction of fine PM that penetrates
  the control device
• EFOCEFPM F1.0 FOC Fcont,
• Where
• FOC fraction of fine particulate matter that is
  organic carbon

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Fuel consumption of the future

• FCi,k,l,m FC1996,k,l,m FCIMi,k,l,m /
  FCIM1996,k,l,m
• where
• FC1996,k,l,m IEA Energy Statistics data for the
  year 1996
• FCIM fuel consumption in the IPCC IMAGE dataset.

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Emission factors for the future

• EFi,j,l,m,n EFPMi,j,l,m,n fsubj,l,m,nfCj,l,m,n
  fconti,l,m,n
• Where
• fsub f1.0
• fC fraction of the particulate matter that is
  carbon (FBC FOC)

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Evolution of Emission Factors
EFi,j,k,l,m,n EFPMi,j,l,m,n fsubj,l,m,nfCj,l,m
,n fconti,l,k,m,n

• fCj,l,m,n , fsubj,l,m,n and EFPM
• Constant over time for each combination of
  scenario/species/sector/fuel/technology
• fconti,l,k,m,n
• Collection efficiency could be estimated from
• regulation, economics, technology innovation
• fcont 1/1exp(-log(aCn) ßStdpm ?)
• where, a, ß, ? coefficients
• Cn technology adoption parameter
• Stdpm Emission Standards of particulate
  matter

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Radiative Forcing
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Values of Particulate Matter Emission
Characteristics for Stationary Combustion
BOND ET AL., 2004
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Emission Standards Modeling

• Short-term emission standards reflect present
  (and proposed) legislation
• longer term emission standards are assumed to
  improve due to technological enhancements
• Use GDP per Capita as a proxy for technological
  enhancements