Electronic Commerce Looking into the Future

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Electronic CommerceLooking into the Future
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Technology and Global Trends

• We are a planet of 6 billion people
• Only 2 use the Internet regularly
• Half watch television on a daily basis
• Half will die without ever making a phone call

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Internet Demographics

• The Internet has been a North American Experience
• Dominated by affluent Caucasians
• Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia are
  growing fast
• Electronic Commerce knows ones, zeros, and dollar
  signs

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One world, ready or not

• Competition among four strong forces
• Capital, labor, nation states, and multinationals
• Capital has wings, and will shift on a dime
• labor will be the big loser, nations are scared
  too
• Most knowledge workers will be able to work
  globally
• the demographics of multinationals is less pure

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The information content of a product

• The information content of a product is
  increasing
• Most of that content will be stored and
  transmitted electronically, much of it never even
  seen by humans
• Manufacturing must splice together these global
  pieces

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The Information Super Highway

• Its not built yet!
• National Information Infrastructure - NII
• Global Information Infrastructure - GII
• We are building stronger, more secure networks
• Electronic Commerce will carry commerce, capital,
  and jobs on these new roads

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One gigabit per second optical fiber
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Staying connected with the world
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Human Digital Workgroups

• Electronic commerce is both human and digital
• Workgroups will change and adapt to our digital
  partners
• Computers are becoming intelligent
• and are helping us make business decisions
• A skilled work force needs to understand and be
  trained in using the apparatus of electronic
  commerce
• Business Process Re-engineering (BPR)
• is about more than saving money, its defining
  workflow

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We are the only species on this planet that
stores ideas outside our bodies
We archive our information and work on it
collaboratively - often years later
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Metaman - technology is human

• The power grid we take for granted
• without it our civilization ceases to exist
• Telecommunications that connect all of our
  business
• Highways, transportation, and automobiles
• from a distance we probably look like ant trails
  too
• Genetic remodeling will be the future of
  medicine
• Dolly was the beginning of genetic
  self-determination
• We have built a civilization dependent on
  technology
• and some of that technology mirrors our own
  evolution

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Jarvic-7 artificial heart
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Human genes injected into a mouse embryo -
designing a hybrid animal
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A different picture of the Internet

• Computation, memory storage, and
  telecommunications
• Distributed storage, computations, and
  communication
• What makes up a human brain?
• storage, computations, and communication
• is this a coincidence?
• The Internet becomes part of the cerebral
  superstructure
• Digital pipes, carrying digital blood, through a
  digital body

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Is the world really going this way?

• Information growth curves are exponential
• Technology keeps us moving on these curves
• Information fuels technology and vice-versa
• Digital knowledge, like culture, evolves rapidly
• In a thermodynamic sense, information wants to
  grow

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Technology trends

• Biological computing is a real thing
• Quantum computing will be even faster
• Genetic algorithms solve real problems
• Programmable computer chips are real too
• IBM has even beamed particles over short
  distances

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Human neurons grafted on a semiconductor device
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Summary

• One world, ready or not
• Human - digital workgroups
• Metaman describes our world
• Digital commerce will make it happen
• We are becoming something very different