Three candles to light

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Three candles to light the darkness
Truth, Knowledge and Nature
Ancient Irish Proverb
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Climate Change I Global Warming

• A. What is Global Warming?
• B. General Circulation Models
• C. Temperature and Precipitation Projections
• D. Assessing the Impacts
• 1. Canada
• 2. Mackenzie River Basin
• 3. Middle East
• E. Strategies to Reduce GG Emissions

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Reading

• Beyond Reasonable Doubt (Andrew Weaver)
• www.uvic.ca/ucom/Ring/00feb04/viewpoint.html

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Hot Site of the Week

• http//www.unfccc.de/
• UN Climate Change Secretariat Relates to
  negotiations of a Climate Change agreement.
  Documents COP summaries emissions data, etc.

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Question(s) of the Week

• What are the top two countries in terms of total
  annual emissions of CO2?
• Answer U.S. and China
• What are the top three countries in terms of per
  capita emissions of CO2?
• Answer U.S., Australia and Canada

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The Lead Up to Kyoto

• 180 nations signed the UNFCCC in 1992. Starting
  in 1994, there were Conference of the Parties, or
  COPs held every year. COP 3 was held in Kyoto,
  and led to a protocol that establishing binding
  levels of GG emission reduction.
• (COP 11 was held last November in Montreal, along
  with MOP 1 (Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto
  Protocol))
• Bickering between provinces and federal
  government over emissions
• U.S. said it would stabilize emissions at 1990
  levels by the year 2010.
• Prime Minister announced that he doesnt care
  what our policy is, as long as we beat the U.S.
• Eventually, federal government decided on a
  reduction from 1990 levels of 3 by 2010, and 5
  more by 2015

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Kyoto

• Many issues all greenhouse gases? Trades
  allowed? Offsets for forests? What about
  developing countries? Credit for nuclear power
  sales?
• Note B.C. emissions expected to be 37 more
  than 1990 levels by the year 2010!!
• To date, 157 countries have ratified, accounting
  for 61.2 of all emissions.
• Canada ratified in December, 2002 Kyoto entered
  the force of law on February 16th, 2005.

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• In addition to the conferences, there has been
  considerable media coveragepro and con.
• Temps. have risen almost 1 degree C. in the past
  100 years, with considerable apparent variability
  in temps and precip. 20 warmest years on record
  all since 1980 high incidence of storm-caused
  damage.
• But, why all the interest?? And what is global
  warming?

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Climate warming is better termed, the enhanced
greenhouse effect. Caused by anthropogenic
release of certain gases, known as greenhouse
gases.

• Carbon dioxide
• Methane
• CFCs
• Nitrous oxides
• Water vapour

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Major Greenhouse Gases (percent of total
contribution, 1988)
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Major Greenhouse Gases, 2002 (Mt and of total)
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Total Global Emissions (in CO2 equivalents)
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CO2 Concentrations and Emissions, Global
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Major greenhouse gases and their characteristics
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Gases are relatively transparent to incoming
solar radiation, but absorb long-wave radiation
and re-emit it downward, warming the surface of
the earth and the lower atmosphere.

• This is why the surface of the earth has an av.
  temp. of 15 degrees and not -15 degrees C.
• No controversy over this.

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Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (seasonally
adjusted)
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Atmospheric Methane Concentrations
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Now, why should we be concerned?

• Concentration of these gases in the atmosphere is
  increasing at a constant rate.

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Well, so what???

• Seems to be a strong correlation between the
  level of these gases and the temperature of the
  earth.

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Departures of Annual Average Global Surface
Temperatures, 1860 - 1992, From the 1950-79
Average
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• Controversy relates to our inability to
  accurately predict what effect these gases will
  have on climate.
• Projections from large, numerical simulation
  models - General Circulation Models or GCMs
• Not able to capture complexities of climate
  system
• Cost of limiting gases very high

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Fact

• Anthropogenic releases of GG are increasing at a
  constant rate
• This will result in global warming (in absence of
  other effects)
• There will be substantial regional effect
• Consequences could be very great, depending on
  ability of system to adapt.

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Fiction

• We cannot say for certain whether changes are
  related to global warming
• We dont know how other earth systems (oceans
  clouds) will react to warming
• We dont know what role natural variation will
  play.

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Global Emissions Under Two Different International
Agreements
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Estimated Sources of Methane

• Wetlands 115 Tg (1012 grams)
• Rice paddies 110 Tg
• Enteric Fermentation 80 Tg
• Gas drilling, venting 45 Tg
• Biomass Burning 40 Tg
• Coal mining 35 Tg

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B. General Circulation Models

• Most projections of climate are the result of the
  output of GCMs. These are large, numerical
  simulation models of the Earths atmosphere.
  Calibrated with different climate variables, then
  run under different concentrations of CO2 --
• GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab
  (Princeton)
• NCAR Natl. Ctr. for Atmospheric Research
  (Boulder)
• GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NY)
• UKMO UK Meteorological Office
• CCC Cdn. Climate Centre

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General Circulation Models (cont)

• Project temperature and precipitation under
  different concentrations of CO2
• All show remarkable consistency with observed
  temperature records (less so precipitation)

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What do the models tell us?

• They also show substantial changes in climate as
  CO2 increases, but magnitude of changes varies.
• In high latitudes, enhanced warming in winter and
  increased precip. in all seasons
• Warming over central N.A. more than average, but
  reduced precip. and soil moisture and
• Sea level rise of approx. 65cm, or - 35cm.

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Criticisms of the GCMs

• Major criticisms of the GCMs relate to their
  treatment of five important feedback mechanisms
• water vapour
• snow and sea ice
• cloud cover
• cloud radiative properties
• ocean-atmosphere interface
• Also poor spatial resolution. Most important
  impacts may be the result of the increasing
  magnitude and frequency of extreme events.

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Additional Comments

• Some readings are not yet on reserve (we have
  recently added new readings).
• Yes, all readings are required however, I will
  note the important ones for review.
• Yes, I will try to keep to a reasonable pace.
• Yes, the news items are important and will be
  covered in exams.

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Question of the Week

• What was the warmest year on record (for global
  average temperature)?
• 1999 1996 1992 1987 1895?
• 1999 1996 1992 1987 1895

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