Whats Rush Got to Do With Obama

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Whats Rush Got to Do With Obama?
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The Limbaugh Effect

• Did Dittoheads save Hillarys Campaign
• March 4th, Texas her Alamo
• Bill said a must win state
• Clinton won TX by 100,000 votes out of
  2,820,000
• Texas an open primary

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Rush, on March 3rd, tells 13 million listeners
  hold their noses and vote HRC
• Dallas Morning News also reported rumors of
  efforts
• Bill OReilly mentioned it on Fox

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Limbaugh
• We need to sustain this soap opera
• we need Barack Obama bloodied up politically

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Strategic cross-over voting
• Sincere
• Malicious, raiding
• When might voters engage in strategic voting?
• Did Limbaugh, et al affect level of strategic
  voting?

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Strategic Cross-over Voting
• Requires a fairly sophisticated voted, and
• information about election outcomes
• incentive to maximize effect of vote
• institutional rules that facilitate action

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Strategic Cross-over Voting
• Information
• Ample polling information
• GOP race known to be irrelevant
• Obama ahead in national Dem polls
• Head-to-head polls show Obama stronger vs. McCain
  than Clinton vs. McCain

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Strategic Cross-over Voting
• Incentives
• would a dedicated Republican care enough to
  cross-over?
• how many cross-over for sincere reasons (like Ann
  Coulter, they really like Clinton)?

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Strategic Cross-over Voting
• Institutions
• what barriers?
• what penalties?
• does voter lose ability to participate in other
  GOP contests?
• does voter need to re-register?

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Strategic Cross-over voting
• Institutions
• Old WA Blanket Primary said to be a perfect
  setting to facilitate cross-over voting
• What about new top two primary?

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Cross-over Voting
• What do we know?
• Most studies show cross-over is sincere
• Support for popular incumbents in WA, CA
• Parties claim it exists
• Dixie Lee Ray (but she won)

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Evidence of cross-over voting in 2008 Democratic
  primaries?
• Exit Polls (which, suck...but forget that)

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Evidence
• Trends in GOP participation in Democratic
  primaries / caucuses
• Trends in support for Clinton among Republicans
  participating in Dem events

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Hypothesis
• If strategic cross-over voting exists, we should
  see more Republicans participating in Democratic
  events as McCain locks up nomination

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Hypothesis
• If cross-over voting is malicious, Republican
  support for Clinton should increase as McCain
  locks up GOP nomination

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The Limbaugh Effect
Proportion of Republicans Participating in Dem
Events through June 3rd, 2008
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The Limbaugh Effect
Ratio of Republican support of Obama to Clinton
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The Limbaugh Effect

• Evidence
• In early events, 3 of voters were Republican
• they voted 70 Obama, 30 Clinton
• On March 4th, 9 of voters were Republican
• they voted 50 Obama, 50 Clinton

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Explanations
• 1) Clinton changed her style, went on attack,
  which appealed to more Republicans....and
  targeted GOP voters
• 2) TX, MS, IN Republicans more likely to be
  excited by HRC than Republicans in other states

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Explanations
• 3) Gradual trend where some GOP voters saw their
  vote had more effect on Democratic side
• strategic? yes.
• hard to tell if sincere or malicious
• hedging

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Evidence
• Average of about 4 GOP share in Democratic
  electorate
• Each event 0.5 greater GOP share of Democratic
  electorate
• Open primary 1.2 greater GOP share
• NO CLEAR LIMBAUGH EFFECT

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The Limbaugh Effect

• Evidence
• Average ratio of GOP support Obama to Clinton
  2.1 to 1
• each event 0.2 decrease in Obamas edge over
  Clinton among Republicans
• each 1 increase in McCains lead 0.1 decline
  in Obama among Republicans