Space Weather Impacts

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Space Weather Impacts
Bill Murtagh NOAA Space Weather Prediction
Center National Weather Service Boulder, Colorado
REU 12 June, 2009
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Overview

• Evolving customer base for space weather products
• Space weather impacts and the solar cycle
• Customer actions

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Evolving Customer Base
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SWPC Product Subscription Service

• 1,695 New Subscription Customers in 2008

Example of Registrants in 2008
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Status of Solar Cycle 23 Smoothed Sunspot
Number (SSN)

• Cycle 23 - Began in May 1996 with a SSN 8.0
• Peak in April 2000 with SSN
  120.8
• Solar minimum in ???

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• Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller
  cycles
• The largest geomagnetic storms on record
  occurred
• during lower than average cycles

1859 Storm
1921 Storm
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Solar Cycle 23 Electron Fluence
Satellites vulnerable to deep dialectic charging
are threatened at this stage of the cycle (solar
minimum).
gt 2 MeV
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Jan 2007 The statement says the likely cause
of the failure was intense solar activity during
the period, which caused an electrostatic
discharge on board the satellite, disrupting the
on-board electronics.
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• DISH Network said that "on July 14, 2008, our
  EchoStar 2 satellite experienced a substantial
  failure that appears to have rendered the
  satellite a total loss.
• Lockheed Martin had earlier admitted that under
  certain environmental and operational conditions
  the LM-7000 series satellites can suffer complete
  failure.

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GLONASS satellites are at 19,100 kilometers.
Radiation is subsequently the harshest
environmental factor that navigation satellites
must endure.
http//sidt.gpsworld.com/gpssidt/LatestNews/Radia
tion-Forces-GIOVE-B-into-Safe-Mode/ArticleStandard
/Article/detail/555703
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Solar Cycle 23 Cosmic Radiation
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USA TODAY 28 Mar 2005 Cancer fears limit Hong
Kong air crews' New York trips HONG KONG
(AFP) Airline Cathay Pacific has limited air
crews' flights on the non-stop Hong Kong-New York
route after it was found the journey could
increase the likelihood of cancer, a report said
Sunday. Staff of the British-owned, Hong
Kong-based airline say they have been limited to
just two of the ultra long-haul flights per month
since it was found the route exposed passengers
and crew to high levels of cosmic radiation when
they flew over the North Pole.
Cosmic radiation effects on avionics (spacecraft
and airplanes) Ionizing radiation can interact
with electronics and cause a number of different
effects, including ? Bit-flips ? Destructive
burn-out (burn-out in high-voltage
electronics) ? Gate rupture (burnout of a
transistor gate insulator) ? Dielectric failure
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Space Weather Impacts Who cares and why

• Radio Blackouts (R scale)
• - Solar Flares
• Radiation Storms (S scale)
• - Proton Events
• Geomagnetic Storms (G scale)

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NOAA Space Weather Scales
http//www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Radio Blackouts
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Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (NOAA R Scale) -
Flare produces electromagnetic radiation across
the spectrum at all wavelengths from long-wave
radio signals to the shortest wavelength gamma
rays.
Powerful X17 flare
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The New York Communication Center 07Sep05
1800Z   Solar activity severely impacted all HF
comms.  Higher frequencies utilized with little
effect.  24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATC
messages were relayed via sat-voice between 1040Z
and 1939Z..           Severe operational
impact. 
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Solar flares also produce bursts of radio
emission, which can significantly impact GPS.
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Solar Radiation Storms (NOAA S Scale)

• Radiation hazard to astronauts
• Radiation exposure in commercial jets (mostly
  high latitudes and high altitudes)
• Satellite operations
• Satellites may be rendered useless
• Memory impacts cause loss of control
• Star-trackers unable to locate sources
• Days of poor HF (high frequency) communications
  in polar regions
• Position errors in navigation systems

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Aviation

• Aviation interests are significantly impacted
• by solar radiation storms
• Radiation storms create a communications
• problem and a biological threat.

Polar flights departing from North America use
VHF (30-300 MHz) comm with Canadian ATCs. Flights
will continue using VHF with Arctic Radio, but
soon switch to HF (3 30 MHz). SATCOM is
considered a backup during polar flights, but it
is rarely available above 82 degrees north
latitude.
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Manned Space Flight

• NOAA briefs the NASA Space Radiation Analysis
  Group daily
• Shuttle missions and space walks require
  particular attention
• Radiation storms are primary concern, but
  geomagnetic storms will change radiation dose
  levels at higher inclination.
• Deep space missions will be a whole different
  ballgame!!!

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Deep Space Missions
Mars Odyssey Oct 28 2003 (radiation storm) -
The MARIE instrument had a temperature red alarm
leading it to be powered off on October 28. The
MARIE did not recover.

Mars Express - radiation made it impossible to
navigate using stars as reference points
(orbiter's star trackers blinded for 15 hours).
The flares also delayed a scheduled Beagle 2
checkout procedure.
SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of engine due to
radiation levels in lunar transfer orbit.
Reported a total of 3 shutdowns.
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Geomagnetic Storms (NOAA G Scale)

• Electric Utilities widespread voltage control
  problems transformer damage grid collapse and
  blackouts.
• Spacecraft operations surface charging
  problems with orientation uplink/downlink
  problems satellite drag and tracking problems.
• Other systems pipeline currents can reach
  hundreds of amps HF (high frequency) radio
  propagation impacted GPS may be degraded for
  days aurora.

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ESKOM Network reports - 5 Stations, 15
Transformers damaged
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Worst case scenario
1-2 Trillion
Source National Academy Workshop on the
Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space
Weather Events held in Washington, D.C., May 2008.
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GPS operations

• High resolution land surveying airborne and
  marine survey operations and land and sea
  drilling operations are all impacted.

If the GPS data collected are not usable, due to
high solar activity levels, data must be
recollected and reprocessed. The financial and
scheduling impact on these operations is
significant, with costs in the 50,000, to
200,000 to 1,000,000/day range. - FugroChance
The C.R Luigs (ultra-deep water drill ship) -
relies on GPS Dynamic Positioning System for
precise drilling in 9,000 12,000 feet of water
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Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct, the
ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical
error limit, as defined by the FAA to be no more
that 50 meters, was exceeded. That translated
into commercial aircraft being unable to use WAAS
for precision approaches.
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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder,
Colorado

• Space Weather Products and Services
• Watches The conditions are favorable for
  occurrence
• Warnings disturbances that are imminent,
  expected in the near future with high probability
• Alerts observed conditions meeting or exceeding
  thresholds

www.spaceweather.gov
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SWPCs GoalProvide the right information in
the right format...at the right time to the
right peopleto make the right decisions
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Racing Pigeons?
Pigeons have internal biological compasses
composed of the mineral magnetite. This
biological compass is affected by geomagnetic
storms.
Pigeon racers will not release their birds when
G1-G5 geomagnetic storm conditions are observed
or predicted

• The year 2000 which has been very brutal for
  young bird racing here in North America and
  Europe coinciding with the high of the cycle of
  solar radiation in 2000 Alberta Classic

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Quiz What do all three of the following have in
common?
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Why are instruments crafted in the late 17th and
early 18th centuries tonally superior to modern
instruments?
Stradivarius
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• van der Neers painting, Sports on a Frozen
  River

Aert van der Neers painting, Sports on a Frozen
River, 1660
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Colorado Aurora Photo by Ginger Mayfield
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Halloween Storms 2003
A total of 17 major flares, including largest
ever X28 Fourth largest proton event since
1976 Two largest geomagnetic storms (Ap) of Cycle
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Significant Impacts
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The November 2004 Storms

• Some Totals
• Eleven M-class and two X-class x-ray flares.
• Nine Earth-directed CMEs observed on LASCO
  imagery
• Two Radiation storms (at gt10 gt100 MeV)
• Six days of geomagnetic storming four
  severe!
•  

Colorado Aurora Nov 2004 Photo by Darrell
Spangler
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The January 2005 Activity

• Five X-class and 19 M-class flares
• Strongest high energy radiation storm since 1991
• Three days of minor to severe geomagnetic storming

Flights rerouted, polar routes abandoned
altogether ISS astronauts took precautionary
shelter Several satellite anomalies Extended HF
comm problems
Several anomalies occurred on the Gravity Probe B
Mission
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NASA JPL
GPS From GPSOC at Schriever AFB 06 Dec At
approximately 6 Dec/2000Z there was a widespread
loss of GPS in the Mountain States region,
specifically around the 4 corners region of
NM/CO. Several aircraft reported losing lock on
GPS and were tracking 7-9 satellites, and
abruptly loss locks and were then tracking 0-1.
Positioning Fails
Positioning fails
Galapagos Sunlit during SRB
GUAM Nighttime during SRB
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Energetic electrons can cause big problems
for space operations

• High speed streams, produce very large long-lived
  electron belt enhancements
• An ill-timed EVA could deliver a radiation dose
  exceeding short-term limits for skin and eyes.

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Electric power companies take actions to mitigate
geomagnetic storm impacts
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Radar systems are effected by radio bursts

• Air Traffic Control The flare on December 6
  resulted in significant impacts to the network of
  air traffic control radars in Canada, causing
  false targets and interference in the N/S
  direction on scales of approximately 150 miles in
  length. Also on the 6th Denver Center noticed
  strobing on their ATC radar, the problem cleared
  on its own after about 15 minutes

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Very difficult to forecast radio bursts no
one-to-one correlation with flares!
This event received world-wide media coverage