The Future of

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The Future of Crime Mapping
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Crime Mapping Now

• Software and data advances help advance the
  application
• Questions answered
• Where are the crimes?
• Where are crimes concentrated? Hotspots
• What social and locational indicators predict
  crime concentrations?

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Crime Mapping Now

• Crime control and prevention has increased
• Most applications are retrospective ???
• We need to predict the possibility of crime
• We need predictive models of hotspots
• We need to know where it is changing.

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Prevention???

• We tend to respond to existing crime
• Why do we not try to prevent it?
• When we do anticipate, the problem of
  displacement arises.
• Prevention strategies must consider displacement
  and deal with the possibility
• The value of the halo effect?

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Prevention???

• Predictive mapping of attractive targets and do
  what???
• The spillover effect???

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Predictive Mapping

• Primary theories
• Rational choice theory
• Routine activity theory
• Both based on the criminal having purpose and
  self determination
• Persons seeking to benefit themselves?
• The Risk / reward concept is a foundation
• Therefore what types of crime are we dealing
  with?

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Predictive Mapping???

• GIS as two methods
• Geocoding for data creation
• Aggregation based on geocoding results
• Data display of the aggregated results
• Displaying data as
• Polygons of tabulated data
• Points of tabulated data
• Raster grids for broad spatial interpretation

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Hotspot Mapping

• Statistically clustered crimes in specific areas
• Often not considered in terms of time
• One day or week a hotspot the next not there
• Long term analysis (year) may be more accurate
• Deploying patrols based on longer term trends

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Hotspot Mapping

• Which techniques would be better?
• Mean Center?
• Standard deviational ellipse?
• Accumulation of crimes to unique point?
• Accumulation of crimes within a user defined
  radius?
• Raster grid showing the concentration of crimes
  as a continuous surface?

10
Repeat Victimization

• Of people, addresses, businesses
• The question What are the most commonly
  frequented targets in terms of types?
• Hot dots but they might not be in one general
  area
• Ex. Convenience marts but they may not all be in
  the same area

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Repeat Victimization

• Ex. Convenience marts
• But they may not all be in the same area
• They may be by type of target versus geographic
  pattern.