Elliot Morley MP

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• Elliot Morley MP
• UK Prime Ministers Special Representative on the
  Gleneagles Dialogue

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The Need for Action
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The Need for Action

• Widespread signs of climate change now
• e.g. melting of glaciers globally, 8 loss of
  Arctic sea-ice in last decade, Melting
  permafrost, sea levels rising at 1-2 cm per
  decade, earlier biological changes in spring
• Significant risks to climate system this century
  with temperature rises of up to 5.8C
• e.g. irreversible melting of Greenland and even
  Antarctic ice sheet could begin (12m sea level
  rise potential), significant slowing of the Gulf
  Stream, widespread species loss, oceans become
  more acidic threatening the food chain, major
  increase in water stress.
• Other potential threats
• e.g. major release of methane as permafrost melts
  and oceans warm, threats to key weather systems
  Asian Monsoon, El Nino events more severe,
  hurricanes become stronger, biosphere ceases to
  absorb excess CO2

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Austrian Glacier, Pasterze
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European summer temperatures modelled (red) and
observed (black)
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Observed Global Temperature Change 1850-2005
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Carbon Dioxide Levels Over the Last 60,000 Years
SourceUniversity of Berne and NOAA
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The Human and Economic Costs

• UK floods, autumn 2000
• - Insured loss 1bn
• European floods 2002
• - 37 deaths
• - 16 bn direct costs
• European heat-wave 2003
• - 35,000 deaths approx
• - 13.5 bn direct costs
• Hurricane Katrina, 2005
• - More than 1300 deaths
• - 40 bn insured loss alone
• - 200 bn total cost

Hurricane Katrina, courtesy of NOAA
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Economic Losses From Weather Related Events
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Distribution of emissions
Selected countries/regions fossil fuel CO2
emissions 2003
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18
73 world emissions 59 world population
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14
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CO2/capita tonnes
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8
6
4
2
0
US
Brazil
India
EU-25
Mexico
China
Russia
South Africa
Japan
Energy Information Administration, US government,
Energy Information Manual 2003 updated 2005
Cumulative population, million
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The Scale of the Reductions Needed
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International Climate Negotiations - UN

• Kyoto Protocol track - 164 parties (COP/MOP)
• Consideration of commitments for subsequent
  periods for Parties included in Annex I to the
  Convention under Article 3.9, of the Kyoto
  Protocol
• Review of Article 9 of the Kyoto Protocol
• Emission targets for developed countries plus
  flexible mechanisms
• Domestic policies and measures
• Adaptation fund
• Compliance mechanisms
• Bunker fuels (air maritime) to be addressed in
  other fora

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International Climate Negotiations - UN

• Convention Dialogue - 189 parties (COP)
• Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to
  address climate change by enhancing
  implementation of the Convention
• Ultimate objective stabilising greenhouse gas
  concentrations
• Common but differentiated responsibilities
• Industrialised nations should take lead
• Specific needs and special circumstances
  developing countries, esp. most vulnerable
• Focus on e.g. adaptation, technology transfer,
  financial mechanisms

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UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Next Steps

• Montreal Plan of Action
• Convention Dialogue (all Parties) on long-term
  cooperative action to address climate change by
  enhancing implementation of the Convention
• Ad hoc Working Group on commitments of Annex I
  countries post 2012 (Article 3.9 Kyoto Protocol)
• Review of Kyoto Protocol (Article 9) scope to be
  discussed at Nairobi
• SBI SBSTA meetings in Nairobi deforestation,
  technology, adaptation
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report due in 2007

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International parallel processes

• G8 and the Gleneagles Dialogue
• Aim is to break down negotiating blocks at UNFCCC
• Scope Industrialised countries (inc. US and
  Russia) 5
• Rotating Presidencies Russia / Germany / Japan
  / Italy
• Summits and other Ministerial meetings
• Previously no formal follow-up until Gleneagles
  Dialogue (including Plan of Action)
• High level political messages e.g. long term
  goal, Stern on costs of action and inaction
• World Bank/Regional Development Banks mandate to
  develop Clean Energy Investment Framework
• IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (June 2006)

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UK Action

• UK Kyoto target
• to reduce greenhouse gases emissions by 12.5
  below 1990 levels by 2008-12
• UK national goal
• to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 below 1990 levels
  by 2010 and by some 60 from current levels by
  2050, with real progress by 2020
• UK Climate Change Programme
• Energy Review

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UK Legislation

• Put into statute the goal to reduce carbon
  dioxide emissions by 60 per cent by 2050.
• Establish an independent body The Carbon
  Committee to reduce emissions over time and
  across the economy.
• Create enabling powers to put in place new
  emissions reduction measures needed to achieve
  our goals.
• Improve monitoring and reporting arrangements,
  including how the government reports to
  parliament.

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There is still time to avoid the worst impacts
of climate change if we take strong action now.
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Stern Review key figures

• Extreme weather could reduce global gross
  domestic product (GDP) by up to 1
• A two to three degrees Celsius rise in
  temperatures could reduce global economic output
  by 3
• If temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius, up
  to 10 of global output could be lost. The
  poorest countries would lose more than 10 of
  their output
• In the worst case scenario global consumption per
  head would fall 20
• To stabilise at manageable levels, emissions
  would need to stabilise in the next 20 years and
  fall between 1 and 3 after that. This would
  cost 1 of GDP

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Stern Review key messages

• Climate change could have very serious impacts on
  growth and development.
• The costs of stabilising the climate are
  significant but manageable Delay would be
  dangerous and much more costly.
• Action on climate change is required across all
  countries, and it need not cap the aspirations
  for growth of rich or poor countries.
• A range of options exists to cut emissions
  Strong, deliberate policy action is required to
  motivate their take-up.
• Climate change demands an international response,
  based on a shared understanding of long-term
  goals and agreement on frameworks for action.

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Time Line

• 2007 German G8 and EU presidencies
• IPCC 4th assessment report published
• 2008 First Kyoto commitment period begins
• US presidential elections
• Gleneagles Dialogue reports back under
  Japans G8 presidency
• 2009 Projected date for conclusion of post
  2012 negotiations at UN
• 2013 Start of action under post 2012
  framework.

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Where are we going?

• Bring about a shift in attitudes towards climate
  change allowing movement
• from
• Rejection of and/or indifference to need for
  immediate international collective action
• to
• Agreement to inclusive future framework which
  delivers cost-effective but deep emission
  reductions consistent with a long-term goal

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Engagement With the US