SIS

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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004
Implications of an ageing society Pas
cal WOLFF Eurostat E5
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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004

• Purpose
• Review proposed indicators for theme Ageing
  Society.
• Approach
• Context
• Policy goals
• Sub-themes and areas
• Coherence with other works

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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004

• Context
• Profile of IPSE and Soc. Prot. statistics
  remains high and continues to grow
• Within EU, big impetus from Lisbon process
  and Open Method of Coordination.
• Now streamlining with employment, health,
  etc
• Work of SPC Indicator Subgroup
• Within Eurostat, re-launch IPSE WP 1998,
  launch SILC
• Key proposals Eurostat, Laeken portfolio,
  Str. Ind., NAPs/pens 2002, JPR, ISG progress
  report 06/2003

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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004

• Headline objectives
• Adequacy of pension and health care systems,
  while maintaining sustainability of public
  finances and inter-generational solidarity ?
  PENSIONS ADEQUACY
  ? FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY
• Address the demographic challenge by raising
  employment rates, reducing public debt and
  adapting social protection systems, including
  pension systems ? DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
• Increase the average EU employment rate among
  older women and men (55-64) to 50 by 2010.

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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004

• Sub-themes and areas
• PENSIONS ADEQUACY
• Preventing social exclusion
• ? Risk of poverty for people aged 65 and
• Enable people to maintain living standards
• ? Replacement ratio (comparison of
  household income between 65 and lt65)
• Promoting solidarity within and between
  generations
• ? Inequality of income distribution (under
  development
  in ISG - JPR

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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004

• Sub-themes and areas
• DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
• Population structure
• ? Dependency ratio (65 and vs. 15-64)
• Life expectancy
• ? Life expectancy (at age 0, at age 65)
• Fertility
• ? Fertility rate
• Migrations
• ? Net inwards migrations (aged 15-64)

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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004
Dependency ratio
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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004

• Sub-themes and areas
• FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY
• Employment levels
• ? Effective average rate of withdrawal from
  labour market
• ? Employment rates for people aged 55-64
• Sustainability of pension systems
• ? Pensions expenditures as a of GDP
• Sustainability of health care systems
• ? Health care expenditures as a of GDP

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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004
Dependency ratio
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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004

• Coherence with other works
• SDI framework is in line with ISG proposals
• Key indicator in pensions adequacy theme is
  at-risk-of-poverty rate for 65 rather than
  replacement rate (median household income)
• Demographic change adds indicators on fertility
  rate and migration. Demographic structure taken
  as level 1 indicator (for ISG it is pensions
  adequacy).
• Employment of older workers appears under
  economic theme instead. Projected expenditure on
  healthcare added.

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SDI Workshop Stockholm, 9-12 February 2004

• Remaining shortcomings
• Some areas are still under development (best
  needed indicators) wealth indicators,
  theoretical replacement ratio, public
  expenditure on care of the elderly
• (Short-term) monetary poverty does not
  necessarily lead to low living conditions
• Pensions or health care expenditures (even as a
  of GDP) does not give an evaluation of
  financial sustainability