MM5, RAMS,

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MM5, RAMS, CAMx Simulations of Summer-time
Middle-East O3
Shoukri Kasakseho, Robert Bornsteino, Erez
Weinroth ºSan Jose State University, San Jose,
CA, USA Applied Research Institute-Jerusalem,
Bethlehem, West Bank, Palestine Hebrew
University, Jerusalem, Israel

• (Funding USAID-MERC Program)
• Shouk_mcsd_at_yahoo.com

Presented at the 86th AMS Annual Meeting Jan-Feb
2006 Atlanta, Georgia
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Outline

• Background
• Synoptic-scale circulation patterns
• Obs of 03 mesoscale transport-patterns
• MM5 and RAMS met simulations
• CAMx 03 simulations
• Conclusions
• Future work

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Middle East Synoptic Typesref Dyan and Levy
(2002), JGR

• Account for 74 of O3 episodes over region
• High pressure over eastern Med Sea (Spring) 25
• Red sea trough over Israel (Fall) 29
• Shallow Persian trough (Summer) 20
• Five others undefined 26
• Shallow Persian (thermal) troughs produce high
  O3, as they are caped by N. African sub-tropical
  H, which produces
• subsidence warming, stabilization, shallow
  mixed layers
• sunshine and rapid photochemistry
• Current effort investigates a Persian trough
  occurrence that coincided with HUJI aircraft O3
  observations

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Obs IMS 700 hPa, July 29, 0000 UTC

• Eastern-Med dominated by Low-p system ?
• inland lobe of Azores H thus split into W
  NE segments
• Protrusion from Western High penetrates inland
  to
• Western Saudi Arabia

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700 hPa ECMWF same day
L
H
L

H
ECMWF IC/BC captures position strength of
L split (W NE) Highs
protrusion from W high ? good upper IC/BC
for RAMS/MM5
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H
L
Trough line

Ridge line
H
IMS SFC Obs, July 29, 0000 UTC

• Eastern edge of Azores High (1023 hPa) over
  Europe (NW of study region),
• with eastward (projection) ridge from its
  S-lobe over center of study region
• Sfc Persian Trough (projection) line (996 hPa)
  N of study area
• E-W oriented cold-front to N between H
  Persian L

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L
H
L
H
H

• ECMWF SFC Pressure (left) Correctly captures
  position strength of H, Persian Trough Low, W-E
  cold front (grey area), both projections
  (hard to see)
• ECMWF D-1 concurrent SFC V (right) dominated by
  projections, with counterclockwise flow N of
  area (over Med Sea) is influenced by eastern-L
  and clockwise flow S of area (Israel Sinai) is
  influenced by South-lobe of western-H
• good SFC IC/BC for RAMS/MM5

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.
Available O3 sites (Left is sub-domain of MM5
Domain 2) ridge-lines shown
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Sites I Inland, CU Coastal Urban
CNU Coastal Non-Urban
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Night 3 AM LST (00 UTC)

• Flow Dir weak down-slope off coastal mountains
  for
• Coastal plain offshore (to W) from W-facing
  slopes
• Haifa Pen. (square) offshore (to E ) from E-
  facing slopes
• Inland sites directed inland (to E) from
  E-facing slopes
• Low-O3
• generally lt40 ppb)
• Haifa still at 51 ppb

L
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Day 1200 NOON LST

• Winds
• Reversed
• Stronger up 6 m s-1
• Coastal plain Onshore/upwind, from SW
• Inland sites Channeling (from W) in corridor
  (box) Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem (Modiin station).
• High daytime O3
• Max at Mappil, 66 ppb
• 2nd max at Modiin, 63 ppb

H
H
L
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O3 time series for Aug,1
Obs
Peak is at 11 LST. Why?
Inland sites day max (auto sources)
Coastal urban day min (via max titration)
Coastal non-urbanized Moderate day values (less
titration)
Night time min
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RAMS Configuration (Weinroth 2004)

• 3 Grids
• 20 km over E-Med for background synoptic forcing
• 5 km over Israel, West Bank, and Gaza for
  meso-scale sea/land mt/valley flows
• 1.25 km for Tel Aviv-Jeru-salem
  transport-corridor
• Domains GPs 45 x 45, 74 x 54, and 146 x 218 for
  Domains 1-3
• 24 vertical levels
• 1st full grid cell at 125 m
• Topography GTOPO30 project
• ECMWF for IC and BC
• Simulations start at 0000 UTC on 1 August 97
  end 72-h later

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MM5 Configuration (Kasakseh 2006)

• Version 3.7
• 3 domains
• 15, 5, 1.67 km Grid Spacing
• 59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid Points
• 32 s-levels
• up to 100 mb
• first full s-level at 19 m
• ECMWF IC and BC
• Two-way nesting
• 5-layer soil model
• Gayno-Seaman PBL
• Simulations
• Start 0000 UTC, 29 July 97
• End 0000 UTC, 3 Aug 97
• Single LINUX CPU (SJSU-Lightning)

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Obs vs. MM5 T(t)
from changing GC/synoptic conditions?
MM5 needs analysis nudging
MM5Run1
July 29
August 1
August 2
obs
MM5Run 4
July 31
Aug 1
Aug2
Standard MM5 over-predicts summer night-time
min-T (Bornstein 2006, this Conf) ?
lower deep soil temp ? better T-results ? better
Winds ? better O3
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Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug all down-slopeoff-shore
(except where inland-direct at inland sites)
RAMS

• Off coast South-Westerly (no obs, so ?)
• Coastal plain downslope/offshore from SSE (in
  obs, but cant be in coarser ECMWF-results)
• Inland sites inland directed (in obs ECMWF)

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Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug all down-slope, off-shore
(except where inland-direct at inland sites)

• MM5 Domain-2
• Off coast onshore from W (like ECMWF no obs??)
• Coastal plain downslope/offshore from SSE
• (in obs RAMS, but cant be in coarse
  ECMWF-results)
• Inland sites inland directed (in obs ECMWF)

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Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug All westerly/onshore flow
RAMS

• Off coast Onshore from SW (no obs??)
• Coastal plain upslope/onshore (in obs, but
  cant be in coarse ECMWF-results)
• Inland sites inland directed (in obs, MM5,
  ECMWF)
• South (circle) NW as in MM5 (No Obs)

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Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug All westerly/onshore flow

• MM5 Domain-2
• Off coast onshore from W (like ECMWF no obs)
• Coastal plain upslope/Onshore (in obs RAMS,
• but not in ECMWF-results)
• Inland sites inland directed (in obs ECMWF)
• South (circle) NW (as in RAMS ECMWF no Obs?)

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RAMS/CAMx (left) vs. Airborne Obs (right) from
Weinroth (2004)? Secondary max (underestimated)
from autos over Jerusalem (in obs) ? Primary
max from power-plants in Jordan (no obs)
Flight Path
Jerusalem
Irbid, Jordan
.
Hadera Power ? Plant
1 Aug, 1500 LST
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SUMMARY OF RESULTS

• Observations during a summer Persian-Trough
  period produced typical (not episode-level) O3
  (as it was somewhat N of area) show
• Meso (down/up slope sea/land) breezes dominate
  coastal flows
• Jerusalem O3 max due to coastal auto emissions
• Coastal-urban O3 min due to NOx titration
• Model-results show
• RAMS MM5 reproduce surface flows
• CAMx reproduced the observed Jerusalem O3 max and
  produced an even larger previously-unknown max
  over Jordan due to power plant emissions

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FUTURE WORK

• Improved MM5 simualtions
• Modified IC soil moisture to improve max-T
• Incorporate FDDA analysis nudging
• Compare PBL transport patterns in RAMS and MM5
• Run CAMx with MM5 met-input and compare to
  results from RAMS/CAMx
• Move to uMM5 and uWRF

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