Benchmarking Review of GTAAs in the South West

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Benchmarking Review of GTAAs in the South West

• Pat Niner
• Centre for Urban and Regional Studies
• University of Birmingham

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Presentation plan

• Who we are and what we did
• Summarise findings on
• variability of estimates of requirements
• survey methods
• consistency of approaches to making estimates
• robustness of GTAAs
• cross-boundary issues

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Who we are and what we did

• Team from CURS at Birmingham and SHUSU at Salford
• Brief to benchmark the 7 South West GTAAs for
  consistency and robustness as evidence in the RSS
  review
• Also to look at any relevant cross-boundary
  issues
• Stage 2 will be to look further at needs of
  Travelling Showpeople

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Who we are and what we did

• We developed and used benchmarking pro-formas to
  examine each GTAA in a structured way
• checklist records survey approach and how each
  element in the needs assessment model is
  calculated
• summary answers questions first set out in CLG
  Preparing Regional Spatial Strategy reviews
  report
• The completed pro-formas were circulated to LAs
  for comment
• The pro-formas are included as Appendices to our
  report

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Limits to benchmarking

• The GTAA reports were our only source of
  information
• we can look at internal logic etc compare with
  best practice and our own experience
• we have no external check on factual accuracy
• We have not benchmarked any subsequent revisions
  by LAs
• We have concentrated on the quantitative element,
  which fails to do full justice to some of the
  South West GTAAs which are excellent in more
  qualitative ways

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Finding 1 Variability
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Finding 2 Survey methods

• There is some variation in overall study design
• There are different emphases on qualitative and
  quantitative aspects
• All include an interview survey with Gypsies and
  Travellers most achieved a reasonable (sometimes
  very large) sample and used satisfactory
  questionnaires
• We conclude that survey methods are generally
  robust and findings should be reliable

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Finding 3 Consistency of approaches to making
estimates?

• We looked in detail at how the GTAAs dealt with
• estimating the base population
• overcrowding and family growth
• unauthorised development
• unauthorised encampment
• movement between sites and houses
• supply issues
• which groups were included (eg Showpeople)
• transit needs

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Consistency of approach?

• All GTAAs included all or most of these elements
• BUT
• At a detailed level they all did it in a
  different way
• Approaches are not consistent in detail
• The approach taken appears, in some instances, to
  affect the resulting estimates

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Some examples

• Far too much detail to present here
• Examples (NOT comprehensive see report)
• base population Cornwall, Gloucestershire and
  Wiltshire
• overcrowding and family growth Somerset, Devon
  and West of England
• unauthorised sites Dorset and Gloucestershire
• movement between sites and housing Wiltshire,
  West of England and Dorset
• supply issues Devon and Wiltshire

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Finding 4 Robustness of GTAAs

• We conclude that, overall, 4 GTAAs are
  satisfactory and that their findings can be
  accepted as robust
• Cornwall
• Devon
• Gloucestershire
• West of England

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Robustness of GTAAs

• The remaining GTAAs are less robust.
• Dorset produces an unreasonably high estimate
  of requirements
• Somerset GTAA omits some elements of need and
  therefore under-states requirements
• Wiltshire produces an unreasonably low estimate
  of requirements

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We suggest . . .

• Pitch requirement figures for these 3 areas
  should be amended before final regional proposals
  are made

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Options for amendment

• Re-calculate requirements on the basis of
  improved local information
• Fill gaps with standard assumptions on missing
  elements
• Use a formula approach based on easily accessible
  information (Caravan Count)

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A formula approach

• The RSS formula does not work well in the South
  West
• the nature of unauthorised sites, especially
  associated with New Travellers
• apparent under-counting in the Caravan Count
  evident in robust GTAAs
• Suggest the RSS formula might be amended
• treat long-term unauthorised encampment in the
  same way as unauthorised development
• apply a 10 or 20 uplift for under-counting
• Consider as an interim measure?

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Cross-boundary issues

• We looked at regional growth rates
• caravan numbers in the South West have grown
  significantly faster than the national average
  especially since 1994
• imported caravan-dwelling Gypsies and
  Travellers from elsewhere?
• economic and environmental factors suggest the
  Region will continue to be attractive and grow
  relatively fast

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Cross-boundary issues

• We looked at Regional Statements and GTAAs in
  adjoining areas to check for identifiable impacts
  on the South West
• incomplete coverage at present, especially in the
  West Midlands
• no clear evidence of likely cross-boundary
  impacts
• We conclude it is not possible to take such
  possible effects into account at present