KERN REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST

1
KERN REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST

• Revision 2002

KERN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS 4/02
2
THE FORECAST REVISION

• Process Oversight
• The Procedure/Assumptions
• Distribution of County-wide Forecasts
• County-wide Forecast Targets
• Scheduled Updates
• Conclusions/Questions

3
Kern COGs Role
4
Reasons for Update to the October 1998 Forecast

• Metro Bakersfield System Study
• Input from the Development Community
• Metro Bakersfield General Plan Update
• Release of 2000 Census Data
• Air Quality Conformity Modeling
• Policy Note Forecasts are maintained for 3-5
  years to allow time for completion of EIRs
  Project Studies

5
Procedure/Assumptions

• Distribution of County-wide Forecasts
• County-wide Forecast Targets

6
Distribution of the County-wide Forecast Totals

• Based on distribution adopted by Kern COG in 1996
  using the 1993 DOF forecast series.
• Share Allocation Method
• Households/Employment Distributions

7
S.W. Metro Bakersfield General Plan Capacity
8
DISTRIBUTION OF FORECAST FOR HOUSEHOLDS S.W.
Metro Bakersfield 2000, 2010, 2020 2030
9
Forecast Distribution Assumptions

• Growth will continue to occur in rapidly growing
  areas with remaining General Plan Capacity
• Areas that reach capacity in future years will
  spill over into neighboring areas with latent
  capacity proportional to their historic growth
• Growth concentrates around existing activity
  centers and grows outwardly from these centers.

10
Chart A DOF Predicting 2000 in 1991
- Basis for the Metro Bakersfield Impact Fee
Program
11
Chart A DOF Predicting 2000 in 1993
- Basis for the Bakersfield MTIS Light Rail Study
12
Chart A DOF Predicting 2000 in 1996-7
- Basis for the Bakersfield System Study
13
Chart A DOF Predicting 2000 in 1998
- Never adopted by Kern COG
14
Chart A DOF Predicting 2000 in 2000
- DOF yearly estimates revised up
15
Chart A DOF Predicting 2000 in 2001
- Latest 2001 DOF estimate lower than latest
Forecast
16
Chart B Historic Vs. Future 1930-2040
17
Chart C Future Comparisons 2000 - 2040
18
County-wide Summary Forecast Conclusions

• DOF forecasts are high and under estimate
  out-migration
• Adopted DOF Forecast is 7 high in 2000 and 12
  high in 2020
• The July 2001 DOF Forecast is high when compared
  to historical trends
• 1.8 growth rate (2 metro and 1.5 non-metro) is
  more realistic
• 1.8 is a mid growth scenario approximately half
  way between the July 2001 DOF Forecast and the
  historic linear growth.

19
2020 Level of Service (Current forecast)
20
2020 Level of Service (Latest DOF forecast)
21
2020 Level of Service (Recommended forecast)
22
1998 Level of Service
23
Time Line For Forecast Adoption/Use

• 2/27/2002 Metro Bakersfield Modeling
  Sub-Committee meeting
• 3/6/2002 Transportation Technical Advisory
  (TTAC) approves forecast update
• 4/25/2002 Kern COG Board Hearing on Forecast
• 10/2002 Begin Integrating 2000 Census block
  level Housing data, income, and other data.
• 2003 Revised DOF forecast due