Coping with the complexity of defence projects

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Coping with the complexity of defence projects

• RUSI, 10th September, 2008

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Defence projects are diverse

• Some projects are less complex than others.
• The most complex projects (Tier III in Smart
  language) have high unit cost, substantial
  technical risk and limited sources of supply.
  Within this Tier, the most complex projects are
  those to be used directly against an enemy in
  combat.
• Strategies for coping with complexity must
  address the latter projects.

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Complication and Complexity

• Complicated problems have a large number of
  variables, but operate within explicit rules and
  agreed objectives.
• Three-dimensional chess
• Engineering design for space exploration
• Arranging the timetable for a large school
• Complex problems have many stakeholders in
  multiple environments, and are governed by
  sciences which are imperfectly understood and
  which are not subject to repeatable test
  evaluation.
• Regeneration of an inner city

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Defence projects are complex

• Characteristics of modern warfare.
• Rapid advance of defence-related technologies.
• Scale and duration of major projects.
• Characteristics of the Government as a customer.
• All of these complexities are durable.

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Challenges of defence systems acquisition
It is a truth universally acknowledged that
defence equipment acquisition is one of the most
challenging of human activities
War is competitive
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Characteristics of modern warfare

• Synchronised interplay of many specialist
  systems.
• Diverse threats and environments.
• Determined and ingenious enemies.
• Infrequent high-intensity wars, so dual
  imperatives of war and peace.
• Important consequences of victory and defeat.

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Rapid advance of technologies

• Difficult to predict future threats, and hence
  difficult to formulate requirements for the best
  military capabilities to counter them.
• Risks to the projects cost, timescale and
  performance of exploiting unproven technology.

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Scale and duration of major projects

• Major projects in each class are expensive and
  therefore infrequent accordingly they assume
  great significance for the stakeholders involved.
• Project budgets must cover several decades of
  procurement, operation support, and disposal.
• Projects with long timescales are prone to
  changing requirements and political/financial
  risks.

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Government as a customer

• Imperfect markets with -
• Few buyers and few sellers, asymmetries of
  information, etc.
• Funded by public Treasury
• Governed by rules of public accountability
• Defence projects have diverse stakeholders
• Services, industry, Treasury, politicians,
  allies, etc.

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Increasing complexity

• Government now has a plethora of PFI/PPP
  arrangements.
• Advance in defence-related technologies is
  accelerating.
• Defence forces and their equipment are
  increasingly networked.
• Individual defence projects are growing faster
  than financial or industrial resources and now
  have significant effects on
• Military capabilities of national/allied forces
• Defence budget management
• Development of the defence industrial base
• Resource allocation within the operating Service

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A jigsaw for masochists
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Coping with complexity

• New concepts and policies
• Military capabilities, defence lines of
  development, industrial and technology
  strategies.
• Reorganisation of Government and industry
• DPA DLO DES, logistic support for fast jets
• Analyses to illuminate modern warfare
• Innovation in defence research, design and
  acquisition
• Systems engineering
• Risk analysis and management
• Improvement in government/industry synergy
• Training education

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Coping with the characteristics of modern warfare

• Operational analysis and mathematical modelling
  to investigate the characteristics of future
  warfare and how it might be fought.
• Models should be guided and interpreted by
  military judgement.
• Models should be unbiased, and should incorporate
  all important features of the operation/campaign.
• Scenario analysis of alternative consistent
  futures to identify robust military capabilities.

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Coping with the rapid advance of defence-relevant
technologies

• Science over-watch and technology forecasting to
  minimise surprises.
• Sustain an independent programme of research and
  technology demonstration, which is large enough
  to form a good basis for project assessment
  and/or development.
• Design equipment with open systems architecture
  and use incremental acquisition (where
  appropriate) to facilitate cost-effective
  responses to evolving threats and technological
  opportunities.

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Coping with project scale and duration

• A large project should be subdivided into
  manageable elements, using an interface matrix to
  minimise awkward interfaces.
• A long project must adopt a through-life approach
• Use Investment Appraisal to guide project
  selection and to optimise design and management
  within an integrated project management
  organisation.
• Large, long projects must have risk analyses
  which are comprehensive, unbiased, rigorous, and
  frequently updated.

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Coping with the Government as a customer

• No golden rules for imperfect markets.
• Use competition, partnership and regulation in
  combination to achieve the optimal mix of
  economy, security of supply, appropriate
  sovereignty and national economic development.
• Recognise divergent objectives of interested
  stakeholders.
• Services high performance, rapid delivery
• Industry high profit, improved competitiveness
• Treasury low cost, delay
• Politicians national security and prosperity
• Allies - interoperability
• All stakeholders should share information to
  facilitate negotiations between them.

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Coping with complexity via education

• Training in methods and procedures is necessary,
  but not sufficient.
• Project management personnel also need education
  to give them a holistic view of their project.
• Understanding of engineering, analysis and
  management issues.
• Appreciation of world affairs, science
  technology, industrial economics and military
  operations.
• Educated staff should have T-shaped knowledge.
• Personnel in defence projects have diverse
  attitudes to -
• Authority, responsibility, communications, risk
  uncertainty, appearance and reality, urgency,
  ethics, etc.
• An educated senior managers must understand all
  cultures to lead a heterogeneous team effectively.

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Conclusion

• Defence project management is one of the most
  complex and challenging of human activities.
• Modern concepts, policies and analyses can help
  educated managers to cope with complexity.