Global Warming-

1
Global Warming-

• Past Trends and Future Projections

Investigation by Edward Sun Nepean High School
2
Background Information

• Global warming is the increase in the Earths
  average surface temperature.
• Global warming is caused by the Greenhouse Effect
  and elevated emissions of greenhouse gases,
  notably carbon dioxide.
• Naturally occurring greenhouse gases help
  regulate the Earth's climate by trapping heat in
  the atmosphere and reflecting it back to the
  surface. However, human activities have amplified
  this natural process.

3
Background Information (Cont)

• In the past century, the mean surface temperature
  on Earth has increased approximately 0.6 degrees
  Celsius.
• Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the
  twelve warmest years since 1850.
• If global warming is indeed caused by human
  activities, as suggested by many studies, then
  all of us are responsible to do something about
  it.

4
Seeking An Answer

• Global warming is becoming one of the central
  issues of the world
• More and more people are becoming aware of the
  undesirable effects global warming could have on
  the Earths climate, due to much propaganda.
• Global temperatures have been rising and are
  projected to rise further in the future.

5
The Question

• What factors have been causing the Earths
  climate to change, and how will it change in the
  future?
• In an endeavour to answer the above question, I
  decided to investigate on the topic of global
  warming.
• As there are two parts to this question, data of
  past trends will be analyzed, and predictions for
  the future will be made based on these past
  trends.

6
My Hypotheses

• In the future, the climate of the Earth will
  likely be warmer, the sea levels will likely
  rise, and weather patterns and precipitation will
  be affected. Human activities such as burning
  fossil fuels are responsible for past alterations
  of the Earths climate.
• Conducting research, analyzing secondary data,
  and studying relationships will help determine
  the precision of these hypotheses.

7
Variables Examined
The emission of CO2?
The amount of precipitation?
What is the relationship between global warming
and
The amount of fossil fuel burnt?
The number of motorized vehicles?
Ocean levels?
8
A Potential Cause

• As global warming is primarily caused by an
  overabundance of greenhouse gases in the
  atmosphere, we will first consider some factors
  that could cause a rise in the atmospheric
  concentrations of gases such as carbon dioxide
  and nitrogen dioxide.
• What are some things that produce these gases?

9
A Potential Cause (Cont)

• The first to come to mind are cars that line the
  roads of cities, which are increasing in number
  every year.
• Burning gasoline releases carbon dioxide.
• As the combustion of gasoline is an absolute
  necessity for cars to run, the number of cars
  escalating through the years must surely mean
  that the amount of greenhouse gases entering the
  atmosphere has been increasing as well.

10

• Below is graph of the total number of registered
  vehicles in Canada from year 1990 to 1995

The total number of registered vehicles in Canada
had been increasing at a steady rate in the six
years.
11

• Canadas economy was gradually growing, and the
  number of cars on the roads had been on the rise
  at an average rate of 1.33 each year.
• Now let us examine what effects this had had on
  the emissions of greenhouse gases in Canada.

12

• There was an increase in Canadas emissions of
  greenhouse gases at the same time as the number
  of vehicles was mounting.

13
When graphed onto the same axes, the strong,
positive correlation
0.83427 suggests that the increase in the
number of vehicles may be causing a rise in the
amount of greenhouse gases released into the
atmosphere. When we study the same relationship
for the United States, we find similar, positive
correlations.
14
(No Transcript)
15

• Canada and the United States are selected in a
  cluster sample of countries in North America, as
  they are the dominant producers of greenhouse
  gases.
• Since it is shown by many studies that global
  warming is indeed caused by the Greenhouse
  Effect, we may be able to say from studying the
  above relationships that manufacturing more cars
  will contribute to global warming.
• However, as there are many other factors that can
  cause the Earths climate to change, we cannot
  conclude with certainty that the increase in the
  number of vehicles has caused significant changes
  to the concentration of greenhouse gases in our
  atmosphere.

16
Burning of Fossil Fuels

• Burning fossil fuels is another major contributor
  to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

17

• As we can see from the pie chart in the previous
  slide, about 75 of the worlds energy is
  produced by burning fossil fuels.
• Let us examine how this affects global warming.
  Here is a graph displaying the total fossil fuel
  CO2 emissions in Canada between 1985 and 2004.

18

• Clearly, an increasing amount of carbon dioxide
  is being released from burning fossil fuels.

Now let us compare it with the temperature trend
in the Northern Hemisphere between 1960 and 2005.
19

• As much as the temperature deviations fluctuate,
  we can see from the linear trend line that the
  average temperature had been steadily increasing.
  The graph in the next slide clearly shows the
  cause-and-effect relationship between the two
  variables.

20
(No Transcript)
21

• It appears that the amount of fossil fuels burnt
  also has a strong, positive correlation with the
  rise in temperature.
• From studying the statistics, we learn that
  burning fossil fuels has indeed been producing
  more and more carbon dioxide each year.
• Since there is much evidence proving that global
  climate change is due to elevated levels of
  greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it is fair to
  say that burning fossil fuels is definitely a
  contributing factor to the global temperature
  rises.

22
Recent Trends and the Future

• Despite much propaganda attempting to raise
  global awareness regarding global warming, the
  number of cars continues to increase, as do the
  sales of gasoline.

23

• If we extrapolate on the graphs, we can easily
  predict that in about five years, the sales of
  gasoline in Canada will exceed 39 billion litres
  per year, while the sales of diesel oil will
  surpass 20 billion litres per year.
• The implications of this are clear without
  saying more greenhouse gases will be produced,
  which may lead to further changes of the Earths
  climate.

24

• Now let us look at how the climate has been
  affected so far. On the following page is a graph
  on the average annual rainfall amounts in Canada
  between the years of 1989-2003.

25

• While there were great variations in the average
  yearly rainfall amounts during this decade and
  half, we can see from the negative slope of the
  trend line that on the whole, rainfall amounts
  had been decreasing.
• If this trend continues, then further drops in
  the amounts of rainfall can be expected.
• We can clearly see this by extending the trend
  line on the graph.

26
On A Global Scale

• So we have seen that alterations in the climate
  of the northern hemisphere have been occurring.
  Let us see if changes are also taking place on a
  global scale.
• If the global temperatures have indeed been
  getting warmer, then we can expect to perceive
  visible changes in the Polar Regions, where a
  rise in temperature can cause the ice to melt.
• Examining the graph on the following slide allows
  us to see the changes that had been occurring in
  the Arctic ice thickness between the years of
  1990 to 1997.

27

• As we can see, the sea ice had indeed been
  melting and getting thinner over these seven
  years.
• Because global temperatures have been climbing
  constantly, we can conclude that the ice melting
  is due to global warming.

28

• Another question arises from this conclusion
  What happens to the sea level as the ice melts?
  The logical answer is that it will rise. Let us
  see if this is true.

29

• As predicted, the sea levels are indeed rising.
  This can also be attributed to the global climate
  changes, as we have already concluded that global
  warming is what causes the ice to melt.
• Let us examine a recent set of data

30

• Assuming current trends will stay the same in the
  future, the likelihood of the Barents Sea level
  rising more than 10 cm in a future year is 4/6 or
  67.
• The probability of the number of years the
  Barents Sea rises over 10 cm in sea level in the
  next twenty years can be shown by a binomial
  distribution

31
(No Transcript)
32

• As we can see from the chart from the previous
  slide, it is most likely that the sea level of
  the Barents Sea will rise over 10 cm in 12 to 15
  years of the future twenty years, if the current
  trend continues. The expected number of years E
  (x) is 20X0.67 13.4 years.
• Now let us calculate the probability that the
  Barents Sea rises over 10 cm in ten or more of
  the twenty years ahead. Since np20X0.6713.4 and
  nq20X0.336.6 (both greater than 5), it is
  reasonable to use a normal distribution to
  approximate.
• The mean (µ) will be np13.4, and the standard
  deviation (s) will equal to (npq)½(20X0.67X0.33)
  ½2.1

33

• P(x gt 9.5)
• 1 P(x lt 9.5)
• 1 P(z lt (9.513.4)/2.1)
• 1 P(z lt -1.86)
• 1 0.0314
• 0.97

The normal approximation shows that the
likelihood of the Barents Sea rising over 10 cm
in ten or more of the twenty future years is
about 97. This high probability is also an
indicator of how much the global climate has
changed, and how much it will continue to change
if the current trends persist.
34
In Conclusion

• Strong, positive correlations have been found
  between the atmospheric concentrations of
  greenhouse gases and some human activities that
  produce such gases.
• Analyzing climate patterns allowed calculations
  to be done on the likelihood of further climate
  changes. These calculations show that it is
  extremely likely for the Earths climate to
  continue changing in the future.
• Looking at the obtained results, it seems that
  global warming has indeed been caused by human
  activities, and the Earths climate will likely
  experience further changes, as stated in the
  hypothesis

35
Cont

• Although the gathered statistics all strongly
  support the hypothesis, they do not confirm its
  precision.
• While it is extremely probable that the
  hypothesis is correct, the fact remains that
  there are numerous other factors that can
  contribute to the greenhouse effect, and many
  organizations around the world are taking action
  to slow, if not stop global warming.

36
Bias in the Data

• Data were collected from trustworthy websites to
  minimize the number of results that are skewed
  due to various forms of bias.
• However, in some cases the sample sizes may have
  been too small and may not be representative of
  how the climate of the entire globe has been
  changing.

37
End of Presentation

• Thank you for listening