Risk Taking Behaviour

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Risk Taking Behaviour
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Learning Goals

• Give an account of 2-3 Models
• Critically evaluate such models
• Look at risk in the workplace
• Conduct a risk analysis

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Reading

• See web site - risk course for SMEs
• Yates and Stone
• Statutory instruments
• As you might find..

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Who takes risks?

• You
• Me
• Health
• Driving
• Money

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Why take risks

• Gain
• Laziness
• Inattention
• It cant happen to me
• Work, health, leisure etc

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Work based e.g..s?

• Investment, safety, diagnosis, treatment,
  resource allocation, short-termism etc
• Why do we want to understand - training,
  prevention of loss.

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Definition? Its hard

• Consider
• Accepted vs. unaccepted risk
• Unrealistic optimism
• Anchoring/Halo
• Related to error, not a simple concept

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Zero Risk Theory

• Naatanen and Summala 1974
• The minimisation of risk

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Risk Homeostasis theory

• Wilde 1982
• The maintenance of a constant level of risk

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Subjective Utility theory

• Molen and Botticher 1988
• Risk as a decsion making process

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Critique Pluses

• Starting Point
• Useful in limited paradigms
• Ok for individual levels of behaviour.Simplistic.
  Bad with complexity

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Critique Minuses

• I real life risk is distributed
• People behave differently in groups.
• People dont loo at the whole picture.
• Risk is not unitary
• Not predictive.

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Evaluation of models

• Do they predict?
• Do they allow planning?
• Do They help prevention?
• Are they based upon limited paradigms
• Do they change thinking

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Subjective Utility Theory

• A sort of DIY theory for each situation

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Risk Management

• Employers must make an RA
• And act on it
• Otherwise..
• Not much happens

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Risk Assessment

• Probabilistic risk assessment
• Task analysis
• Formal Risk assessment