Title: KBC Group
1KBC Group
- Is it important to participate in the
Pan-European Consolidation ?Goldman Sachs
Conference, June 2006
2Important information for investors
- This presentation is provided for informational
purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to
sell or the solicitation to buy any security
issued by the KBC Group. - KBC believes that this presentation is reliable,
although the information is condensed and
therefore incomplete. - This presentation contains forward-looking
statements, involving numerous assumptions and
uncertainties. The risk exists that these
statements may not be fulfilled and that future
developments differ materially. Moreover, KBC
does not undertake any obligation to update the
presentation in line with new developments. - By reading this presentation, each investor is
deemed to represent that it possesses sufficient
expertise to understand the risks involved.
3Growing consolidation optimism
MA activity European banking sector (in bn USD)
- Over the last 2 yrs., bankers have shown
increasing MA optimism with an increasing
cross-border dimension, partly driven by - Strong profit growth (sectors 2004-05 CAGR gt30)
- Solid equity markets sector return (gt50 since
start of 2004) - MA activity prompting new MA activity
(self-fulfilling catalyst)
4Growing consolidation optimism (2)
- In the coming years, cross-border consolidation
in Europe may become even more intensive on the
back of - (Sustained) favourable economic environment
- Large capital surplus (and limited organic
reinvestment opportunities) - Search for growth areas / exposure to emerging
economies - Search for economies of scale
- Attempts to become larger in order to combine
capital base or to leverage capital arbitrage - And not least fear of being left behind (or
taken over)
5Growing consolidation optimism (3)
European and US banks, ranking per market cap
Scale differences between US and EU refer
especially to top-3(no significant differences
in lower ranking)
- Eye-opener is the European market so
unconsolidated? (compared to the US)
6KBCs consolidator track record
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- 1998 Belgian domestic merger of equals (3
parties) Rationale - Unlocking cross-selling potential (bancassurance)
- Reducing overlaps of systems and distribution
channels - Combining capital resources (to fund
international growth) - 1999-2003 First mover in CEE-5 acquisitions
(step 1), followed by local, in-country mergers
(step 2) - Rationale for step 1 growth
- Rationale for step 2 strenghtening of market
positions - 2004-2005
- Study of various add-on acquisitions in CEE
(Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia) - Study of cross-border transaction scenarios in
which equal forces would be joined at CEE-level
- However, no transactions have been realised
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7KBCs consolidator track record (2)
- What we learned over the past few years?
- We have gone through various deal types with
different geographic scopes - In many fields, our experience saw confirmation
of conventional wisdom that MA benefits may
easily be overestimated (or underestimation of
execution risk) - On day 1, all MAs destroy valuevalue creation
comes later - Cross-border barriers are real (cultural,
regulatory, linguistic differences, the political
agenda, etc.) - A merger of equals is a complex delicate
process (especially in cross-border cases) - Scale is (highly) important but not in all
fields to the same extent - Asset inflation has been high return on (new)
investments are at risk
8Our view on the future
Household debtand GDP per capitain Europe
Householdsdebt/GDP
CEE
GDP per capital (USD)
Belgium
- Over the past year, KBC has strenghtened its
bancassurance position in its historic market,
Belgium (representing 55 of FY05 Group income),
while building up an additional franchise in 5
CEE countries (25 of income) - By doing so, KBC managed to secure long-term
growth propsects - Growth in Belgium is surprisingly high, driven by
strong wealth flows and a still low-endebted
private economic sector - The CEE region obviously is a double-digit growth
franchise on the back of higher economic growth
and an underpenetrated consumer base
9Our view of the future (2)
Market share of 5 largest banks per country
- We are operating in markets with relatively high
concentration no need for further domestic
consolidation (except in Poland) - In the markets in which we operate, buying time
is largely over(few opportunities, high asset
prices)
10Our view of the future (3)
Return versus scale Europes top 50 and
Belgiums top 10
ROE In
Total assets In millions of EUR
Source McKinsey, 2003 data
- In retail financial services, scale in itself is
not necessarily a decisive factor in our view
(retail local SME business still highly
dependent on confidence and local presence) - However, it is vital
- to hold significant market share (10 to 20) in
the individual markets - to excel in the implementation of operating
models
11Our view of the future (4)
- KBC therefore focuses on
- Strenghtening current franchises further
- Highly performing distribution channels
- More sophisticated product offering (in areas
such as SME, HNWI,) - Intelligent marketing
- Adequate customer service
-
- gt Moreover, add-on acquisitions may take place to
further strenghten local market positions
(dependent on opportunities) - Ensuring lean operations and use of scale in
areas where this is relevant, such as - Wholesale activities (incl. leasing asset
management) - Technology and technology-driven transaction
processing - gt Moreover, operational alliances with
third-parties (co-sourcing) may be set up
in certain areas to generate scale effects
12Our view of the future (5)
KBCs role in future MA transactions
KBC as an acquirer KBC in a merger of equals KBC as a target
At the level of the entire group Highly improbable(focused strategy capital restrictions) Highly improbable(locked by shareholder syndicate) Highly improbable(locked by shareholder syndicate)
In-local-market scope Add-on investments possibleif clear strategic fit / return, but few opportunities available (e.g., in Poland) Add-on investments possibleif clear strategic fit / return, but few opportunities available (e.g., in Poland) Highly improbable(no material divestment plans in home markets)
13Conclusion
- is it important to participate in the
Pan-European Consolidation trend? - Maybe
- But , in our view, not for a company with our
profile, i.e. - Focus on retail and local companies
- Assured organic growth potential CEE and
(surprise?) Belgium - Sufficient levers for cross-border scale effects
intra-group via co-sourcing - No capital constraints to fund growth, open mind
for periodically considering return of surplus to
shareholders
- gt Confidence that our stand-alone business case
includes growth, value and low(er) execution risk
14Additional information
15KBC at a glance
- COMPANY PROFILE
- Top-20 financial player in Europe with a 32 bn
euros market cap - Active in banking, wealth management and
insurance with a strongly integrated business
model - Focus on retail and SME
- Key geographical markets
- Top-3 position in Belgium (3m customers)
- Top-3 position in CEE(9m customers)
- SHAREHOLDER PROPOSITION
- Attractive franchises
- Interesting growth potential CEE and
(surprise?) Belgium - Winning bancassurance model
- Modest risk profile
- Capital discipline
- Dvidend policy oriented towards yearly
increasing dividend - Conservative investment policy
- 2006 share buy-back (1 bn)
- Increased share visibility, liquidity,
transparancy
16Solid growth potential
Total loans Mortgages Customer deposits Life reserves AUM
Growth, 1Q06 (y/y) 12 23 8 40 27
Belgium 9 16 0 43 28
CEE 15 36 18 38 44
- By selecting its core markets, KBC managed to
secure long-term growth prospects - Growth in Belgium is surprisingly high, driven by
strong savings flows (AM / Life) and a still
underleveraged private economic sector - The CEE region obviously is a double-digit
franchise on the back of higher economic growth
and an underpenetrated consumer base
Note growth trend excl. (reverse) repo and
interbank activity
17Financial track record
Return on equity
Net profit
In m EUR
39
24
- Over the last yrs, the financial performance
improved significantly. - In 2005, net profit was up 39, resulting from
solid revenue dynamics and also supported by
historically low loan losses. This trend
continued in 2006 Q1 net profit was up 37.
Pro forma for the new KBC group
18Capital deployment 2006-07 initiatives
Objective Allocation of management time Allocation of capital
Strengthening CEE- Buy-out of third parties- Acquisitions- Accelerated organic growth
Strengthening the private banking franchise
Strengthening the Belgian franchise
Distribution excellence
Lean operations
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- We identified additional growth options in order
to strengthen the current franchises and to
ensure distribution excellence and lean
processing - If we execute them rightly, they will enable KBC
to safeguard its growth prospects in the long term
19Contact information
- Investor Relations OfficeLuc Cool, Head of
IRE-mail investor.relations_at_kbc.com - Surf to www.kbc.com for the latest update