Project Plan Root Cause and Risk Analysis Team 2

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Project PlanRoot Cause and Risk AnalysisTeam 2

• NASA Henning Leidecker 301-286-9180
• Boeing Gary W. Bickel 714-372-6820
• 2/25/00

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Team 2 Members

• Project Leads Henning Leidecker-NASA/GSFC
• Gary W. Bickel-Boeing/HB
• Team Members Ray
  Prestridge-JSC
• Pete Mueggler-BHB
• Carol McDonald-BHOU
• Anna Cantwell-SEA
• David Gill-BHB
• Jeanette Plante-GSFC
• Dave Rothermel-BICC
• Dale Zevotek-BICC
• Martin Seifert-LSFT
• David Beverly-JSC
• Craig Mueller-AERO
• Harold Battaglia-BHOU
• John Canham-GSFC

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Task 1-Root Cause Analysis

• Identify Primary Agent for Rocket Engine
  Defect--complete HF-etch enabled by Polyimide
  void and carbon coating breech
• Investigate Strength Reduction, 96
  Cable--complete 124/446 samples below
  Proof-Test level Polyimide void consistently
  observed
• need to complete microphotographs on
  approximately 34 samples
• Investigate Strength Reduction, 98-9
  Cable--partially complete
• Determine source of Polyimide coating voids
  (fiber or other process)
• Determine Agent (or process step) for carbon
  coating breech
• Resolve Lingering Questions (Polyimide Canyons
  versus voids, SEM)
• Complete Root Cause Analysis Report

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Task 1-Root Cause status

• Microphotos on 34 Samples-deferred
• Strength Tests 98-9 Cable-on hold
• Polyimide Coating Voids Source no progress
• Coating Penetration Test Plan in development
• SEM to sort variations in Polyimide void
  structure no progress
• Root Cause Report Major sections left to write

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Task 2-Risk AnalysisUS Lab and Node 1

• Estimate Potential Failures due to Rocket Engine
  Defects--
• Determine Effective n value--failed
  insufficient data
• Determine alternate model for failure prediction
  of existing defects/flaws
• Estimate pre-flight and on-orbit failures based
  on strength distribution data
• Determine Potential for Post-Process defect
  generation by Launch vibration impact
• Determine Potential for on-orbit defect
  generation by Ionized Radiation
• Prepare Risk Analysis Report for US Lab and Node
  1

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Task 2-Risk Analysis StatusUS Lab and Node 1

• Preliminary Risk Analysis Completed
• No consensus on Preliminary Risk Analysis based
  on worst case n-value
• Preparing proposal to do n-value tests for ESD
  attack on uncabled fiber
• Efforts on vibration/ionizing radiation launch
  on-orbit effects on-going

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Task 3-Risk Analysis Reduction(Node 1 DT0
Cable, ESA Cable, all 98-9 Cable Use)

• Determine Low Strength Distribution for 98-9
  cable--
• Provide Preliminary Strength Tests on ESA Cable
  (representing 97 production)--
• Determine Effect of additional Proof Testing at
  the Cable level
• Apply results of above in estimating risk
• Prepare Risk Analysis Reports as needed for these
  tasks

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Task 3-Risk Analysis Reduction Status(Node 1
DT0 Cable, ESA Cable, all 98-9 Cable Use)

• Strength Tests on 98-9 cable on hold
• Tests on ESA cable pending receipt of cables and
  funding decisions
• Proof Testing fixture in development

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Team 2--Schedule
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Team 2--Resources Required