The Future of the Launch Industry

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The Future of the Launch Industry
Benjamin Thomas SolomonB.Sc.(Eng) (UK), Dip OR
(UK), MAOR(UK), MBS(Banking Finance)(Ireland) Te
chnology Innovator/Management Consultant/Author So
lomonSpace_at_aol.com
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Authors Bio.

• Author of
• A Rational Approach to Business Design, Strategy
  and Re-Engineering by Design. (ISBN
  0-9720116-0-9)
• A Rational Approach to Unsystematic Risk,
  Re-Thinking Modern Finance. (ISBN 0-9720116-1-7)

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Authors Bio

• B.Sc.(Eng) (UK), Dip. OR (UK), MAOR(UK),MBS(Banki
  ng Finance)(Ireland)
• 20 years working with multinational and national
  companies.
• Architect of Texas Instruments Daily Factory
  Starts planning systems for Assembly/Test sites
  worldwide.
• Repositioned a 1.1billion port infra-structure
  project to compete effectively against the
  largest container port in the world.
• Re-Engineered a 100m Unilever supply chain,
  reducing sales-order-to-product-delivery time
  from 54 days to 3 days.

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Objective

• A rational means to understanding how why the
  launch industry will change.
• A high level management approach.
• Importance of industry structure.

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Airline Industry Example
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Who is making the profits?
Commercial Aircraft Manufacturer
Commercial Airlines
Passengers
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Holistic Business Model
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Airlines Business Management
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Lesson 1

• High Tech delivery systems do not guarantee
  profits or cash flow, understanding industry
  structure does.

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Whats on the horizon?

• Japanese Shuttle.
• Japanese industrial strategy has always been to
  enter a new market with low cost models, and then
  use the profits to develop more expensive models.

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NASA Business Management
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Lesson 2

• Industry structure analysis shows that NASAs
  contribution to the commercial launch industry
  has eroded significantly.

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Risk-Reward
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NASAs Role

• Create proven technology at the high risk end of
  the graph.
• Hand-off developed technology as quickly as
  possible to as many US commercial enterprises as
  possible.

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Space Risk-Reward
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Who will make the profits?
Commercial RLV Manufacturer
Commercial Space Transport
Passengers Cargo
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Space Transportation Bus. Mgmt.
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Lesson 3

• Avoid the airline industry mistakes.
• Have many commercial RLV manufacturers.

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Commercial Viability

• For a technology to be commercially viable it
  needs,
• Sufficiently long commercial life.
• Cannot be at risk to alternative technologies.
• Cannot be susceptible to technology snowballing
  debugging/development issues.

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A Peak into the Future
Today
Major Revolution in Propulsion Systems
Nuclear Ion Propulsion(Outer Planets)
Nuclear Propulsion (Inner Planets)
Chemical Combustion
lt1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Over the Next 20 Years

• Impetus for the launch industry will come from
  outside the US.
• Major re-think of gravity physics.
• Changes to NASA.

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Concluding Thoughts

• America is holding back America.