Darfur Joint Assessment Mission

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Darfur Joint Assessment Mission

• Scenarios for the JAM

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What are scenarios?

• A scenario is a story that describes a possible
  future.
• Building and using scenarios can help people
  explore what the future might look like and the
  likely challenges of living in it.
• Scenarios are intended to form a basis for
  strategic conversation they are a method for
  considering potential implications of and
  possible responses to different events

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Why use scenarios?

• We can use scenarios to think about the uncertain
  aspects of the future that most worry us.
• To discover the aspects about which we should be
  concerned.
• How do we react to these issues in our work?

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How will we use scenarios?

• Scenarios for Darfur as a whole
• To be clear to everybody of what we try to do in
  each scenario
• To guide the Early Recovery Programme
  implementation - what should happen when?
• Plans A, B and C
• Scenarios for the JAM Process itself.
• Methodology
• Reach and scope of the JAM
• Security requirements

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How would scenarios be used in the JAM Document?

• Situation A
• Large scale returns happen spontaneously in one
  state
• Security situation gets gradually better
• Progress made on DPA institutions
• Confidence grows over time?
• Implications for JAM
• Large scale food security programmes
• Infrastructure development
• Humanitarian support to IDPs and refugees as they
  move
• Reaction to the numbers, through mobilisation of
  resources

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How would scenarios be used in the JAM Document?

• Situation B
• IDPs afraid, so no significant returns
• Security situation gets progressively worse
• DPA continues to be under strain
• Some areas of Darfur could be quiet, while others
  experience extensive fighting
• Implications for JAM
• Heavier dependence on humanitarian aid
• Work on Rule of Law, capacity and institution
  building
• Limited infrastructure
• Services continue to be provided in the camps.

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Scenarios for the JAM process

• Mixed security picture across Darfur,
  fragmentation, partial implementation of the DPA,
  
• Collapse of security on the ground (outside state
  capitals), no efforts towards reconciliation and
  problem solving, DPA implementation slow or
  non-existent
• Formal end to the peace process

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JAM scenario 1

• Current situation
• Poor security for Darfurians and aid groups
• Conflict on the ground in many areas
• Some good will towards peace processes
• Donor support for JAM process
• Implications for JAM process
• Strong Darfur-centered process
• Build consensus and dialogue on the ground
• Combination of key informant discussions and
  field visits
• Close cooperation with agencies, NGOs and civil
  society
• Field visits allow for a scaling up of needs
  assessment for early recovery for Darfur.

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JAM scenario 2

• A future deterioration of the situation on the
  ground
• Movements of nationals and internationals becomes
  much reduced.
• Armed groups declare no cooperation with the JAM
• Tensions between factions and movements rise
• More heavy fighting in localised areas of Darfur
• DPA continues to be seen as a possible path
  towards peace / problem solving
• Implications for JAM process
• Work limited to state capitals and larger towns
• Focus more heavily on key informants
• Identify work that needs to be done later to more
  fully inform the Jam
• Lesser focus on implementation in the coming
  months.

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Contingency Planning

• Defining the main focus or issue (political,
  social, security, ethical)
• Understanding situation (time, size and scope)
• Analysing hazards and risks
• Identifying, defining and prioritizing
  contingencies
• Developing scenarios for planning process
• Continuous updating.