Climate%20change%20and%20water%20availability%20in%20Egypt

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Climate change and water availability in Egypt

• Laura Sokka
• 10th August 2004

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Outline

• Present water supply and consumption in Egypt
• Impacts of climate change on the Nile flow
• Sea level rise
• Conclusions

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Renewable water supply in Egypt in 2000 (FAO,
Aquastat 2004)
Source Quantity (km3/year)
Surface water 55.3
Renewable ground water 3.0
Agricultural drainage water 4.0
Reused treated wastewater 0.2
Desalination of sea water 0.025
Total 62.53
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Water demand in Egypt in 2000 (FAO, Aquastat
2004)
Sector Water consumption (km3/year)
Agriculture 53.85
Industry 9.57
Domestic 5.23
Total 68.65
Available renewable resources 62.53 km3 -gt
Consumption already exceeding long-term available
renewable resources
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Climate change

• Climate changes is expected to cause changes in
  temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration,
  runoff and other hydrological processes
• Changes in regional water availability one of the
  most serious impacts posed by climate change
• Several studies (e.g. Riebsame et al. 1995,
  Conway Hulme 1996) have identified Nile to be
  particularly vulnerable to climate change

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Possible consequences of climate change for water
availability in Egypt

• Reductions in the flow of the Nile
• Intrusion of sea water into coastal aquifers

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Problems in modelling regional impacts of climate
change

• The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs)
  to predict regional or local changes limited
  (e.g. Leavesley 1994, Xu 1999)
• Hydrological processes determined locally
• Common approach to link meteorological and
  hydrologic models with GCMs

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Problems in modelling the River Nile

• Complex hydrology which very sensitive to
  climatic fluctuations
• Main body of waters originate from two very
  distinct regions
• Equatorial Plateau (White Nile)
• Ethiopian Plateau (Blue Nile)

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Assessments of the impacts of climate change on
Egypts water resources

• Riebsame et al. 1995 (in Strzepek Smith (Eds.),
  pp. 57-91)
• Results from 3 GCMs where applied to hydrological
  and management models

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Summary of selected hydrological impacts for the
GCMs
GISS GFDL UKMO
Temperature (C) 3.4 3.1 4.7
Precipitation () 131 105 122
Runoff () 130 23 88
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Average annual changes ( of the Base case) in
the Nile Flow
Scenario Nile flow Egypt yield Evaporation
Base 100 100 100
UKMO 88 88 164
GISS 130 118 159
GFDL 23 17 44
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Assessments of the impacts of climate change on
Egypts water resources

• Conway et al. 1996 (Ambio 25 (5)336-342) and
  Conway Hulme 1996 (Wat Res Dev 12 (3) 277-296
• Uses driving forces from IMAGE2.0 and GCMs, and
  hydrological models of the Nile tributaries
• Time period 1990-2050

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Availability of water for Egypt in 2050 according
to the studied scenarios
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Change () compared to current water availability
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Assessments of the impacts of climate change on
Egypts water resources

• Yates Strzepek (1998), Strzepek Yates (2000),
  Yates (1996)
• Study climate change impacts on Egypts water
  availability up to 2060

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Runoff from the Nile Basin and annually available
water for Egypt in 2060 (Yates Strzepek 1998)
BASE GFDL UKMO GISSA
Natural inflow 84 74 132 130
Sudan abstractions 18.5 13.6 42.5 41
Evaporation loss at Aswam 10 10.6 11.9 11.6
Total 55.5 49.8 77.6 77.4
Change -5.7 22.1 21.9
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Summary of the projected flow available for Egypt

• Riebsame et al. (1995) Changes in water
  available for Egypt between 18 and -83
• Conway et al. (1996) -3 km-9 km3/year
• Yates Strzepek (1998) -5.7-22.1 km3/year

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Sea level rise

• Natural sea level rise along the Northern
  Egyptian coast 0.4-5 mm/year (El-Raey et al.
  1999)
• During the recent decades erosion has also
  increased as a result of reduced sediment load
  from the Nile
• IPCC (1995) predicts sea level rise of 0.15-0.9 m
  by the year 2100

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Impacts of sea level rise

• Possible consequences of sea level rise include
  inundation and erosion, saltwater intrusion,
  increased soil salinity, changes of coastal
  ecosystems and losses of productivity
• Several papers on the vulnerability of the Nile
  Delta to sea level rise (e.g. El-Raey et al.
  1996, 1999a 1999b, Sherif Shingh 1999, Frihy
  2003)
• Frihy (2003) assessed 30 of the Nile Delta and
  Alexandria coast areas to be vulnerable to sea
  level rise

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Impacts of sea level rise

• Tourism most adversely affected, agriculture the
  least (El-Raey et al. 1997, 1999)
• Sherif Singh (1999) found the Nile Delta
  aquifer to be very vulnerable to sea level rise
• Additional pumping of water from the aquifer
  would increase sea water intrusion

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Conclusions from the review of climate change
impacts on Egypt

• The Nile extremely sensitive to climatic
  fluctuations
• The impacts of climate change on water
  availability uncertain
• In relation to water availability, the changes in
  Nile flow more important than impacts of sea
  level rise on groundwater resources

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Conclusions from the review of climate change
impacts on Egypt

• Egypt already presently exceeding its long-term
  available water resources
• New sources of water/water saving needed
  regardless of climate change
• Other threats increased water use in the
  upstream countries