Title: Climate change and the cryosphere
1Climate change and the cryosphere
2Outline
- Background, climatology variability
- Role of snow in the global climate system
- Contemporary observations of climate change
- Cryospheric indicators of climate change
- Future global regional projections
implications of climate change
3Background, climatology variability
4Surface water budget ?S P E R
520th Century Climatology
Observed
GFDL
Ref Masuda
6Current snow coverage
30 March 2009
7Departure from average
30 March 2009
8Seasonal climatology
9Observed GFDL Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent
(x106 km2), 1973-2000
Season OBS GFDL MAE RMSE
Winter 44 42 2.4 0.55
Spring 30 35 4.8 1.00
Summer 6 4 2.3 0.51
Fall 19 20 1.7 0.40
Annual 25 25 0.9 0.22
10Mean annual maximum monthly snow mass (kg m-2) in
Canada, 1980-1997(Brown et al. 2003)
11Current SWE in Prairies
12Monthly Eurasian standardized snow cover extent
anomalies
13Interannual variability
Source Karl et al. (1993).
14Role of snow in the global climate system
15Annual cycle of daily discharge in Skeena River
(1955-2004)
freshet
16Variation of peak discharge with latitude for 42
Hudson Bay rivers
Source Déry et al. (2005), J. Climate.
17Contribution of snow to river runoff
Source Barnett et al. (2005).
18Teleconnections
Definition Atmospheric interactions between
widely separated regions that have been
identified through statistical correlations (in
space and time). For example, the El Niño
teleconnection with the Southwest United States
involves large-scale changes in climatic
conditions that are linked to increased winter
rainfall.
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23Correlation coefficient between annual Eurasian
snow extent anomalies discharge anomalies the
following year in 64 rivers of northern Canada
Source Déry et al. (2005), JGR.
24Observed 20th century climate change
25Warming air temperatures
Climatic Research Unit, University of East
Anglia, http//www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
2620th century climate trends
Reference Déry and Wood (2005)
27Trends in global surface air temperature
28Trends in global surface precipitation
2920th century temperature-precipitation
covariability
Reference Déry and Wood (2005)
30Cryospheric indicators of global change
- Snow depth, swe, density, albedo temperature
(heat content) - Duration of snow cover growing season
- Snowmelt/spring freshet date
- Soil moisture
31Snow depth
Source Curtis et al. (1998), Int. J. Climatology
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33Annual cycle of daily snow accumulation (SWE) at
Barkerville
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35Trend () in April 1st swe, 1950-1997
Source Mote et al. (2005), BAMS
36Albedo
Source Stone et al. (2002), JGR.
37Trend (days/year) in snow cover duration,
1972-2000
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39Snowmelt Date
Source Stone et al. (2002), JGR.
40Annual cycle of daily runoff for the Swift River
near Barkerville
41Trend in centre of volume in river discharge
across western N. America
Source Stewart et al. (2005), J. Climate.
42Future projections implications of global change
43Components of the climate system
44IPCC 4th Assessment
45IPCC 4th Assessment
46Expected indicators of climate change
IPCC 3rd Assessment
47IPCC 4th Assessment
48IPCC 4th Assessment
49IPCC 4th Assessment Runs
50Trends in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent
Source Déry et al. (2006), JGR.
51Projected change in seasonal snow cover frequency
based on GFDL CM2 simulations (21st - 20th
century)
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Projected change in frequency
52Trends in Northern Hemisphere snow mass
53Projected change in seasonal snow water
equivalent (swe) based on GFDL CM2 simulations
(21st - 20th century)
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Projected change in swe (mm)
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55Regional climate (baseline)
- Source PCIC (http//www.pcic.uvic.ca)
56Temperature Projections
57Precipitation projections
58Regional Projections for snow
59Implications of global change
- Increase in planetary albedo (positive feedback
on global warming) - Decreasing water resources, including soil
moisture - Longer growing season
- Impacts on recreational activities
- Ecological implications
60Further reading
61Points of Discussion
- Which component of the cryosphere is most
vulnerable to climate change? - What are the possible environmental impacts of
climate change in Prince George, B.C., Canada? - Will there be any jobs for cryospheric scientists
in the 21st century?
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