The American Nuclear Society

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The American Nuclear Society

• Status and Future of Nuclear Power in the U. S.
• Presented to the Foundation for Nuclear Studies
• by Larry R. Foulke
• ANS President
• September 12, 2003

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Nuclear Power Performance Good News

• Increased capacity factors
• Equivalent of 23 new plants
• Excellent safety record
• Reductions in OM costs
• Reductions in radioactive waste
• Reductions in worker exposures
• Avoidance of pollution

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Nuclear Power Performance Good News

• Increased capacity factors
• Equivalent of 23 new plants
• Excellent safety record
• Reductions in OM costs
• Reductions in radioactive waste
• Reductions in worker exposures
• Avoidance of pollution

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Good News (continued)
Already filed Catawba 1,2 McGuire 1,2 St. Lucie
1,2 Fort Calhoun Robinson 2 Ginna V.C.Summer Dresd
en 2,3
Approved Calvert Cliffs 1,2 Oconee 1,2,3 Arkansas
Nuclear One Unit 1 Hatch 1,2 Turkey Point
3,4 North Anna 1,2 Surry 1,2 Peach Bottom 2,3
Announced Quad Cities 1,2 Farley 1,2 Arkansas
Nuclear One Unit 2 Nine Mile Point 1,2Cook
1,2 Browns Ferry 1,2,3 Millstone 2,3 Beaver
Valley 1,2 Brunswick 1,2 Davis-Besse Pilgrim Susqu
ehanna 1,2 7 plants not publicly announced

• Besides excellent performance
• License Renewal
• Good market for pre-owned plants
• Manpower issues being addressed
• Upswing in university enrollments
• National Energy Policy pro-nuclear
• Yucca Mountain progress
• Improved licensing process (10CFR52)

Source NEI
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Abundant Energy

• Is the daily bread of civilization
• Drives the economy
• Drives the quality of life
• Frees man to be creative

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However . . .

• No new plant orders in 25 years
• WHY?

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Issues

• Financial markets
• Risk of high costs for first new plants
• Need for realism
• Infrastructure concerns
• Dysfunctional deregulated energy market
• Spent Fuel Disposal, Accident Indemnity,
  Commissioning Risk

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Illustrative Example Capital Costs for AP1000s
Source Scully Capital Services, 2002
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DOE 2010

• Joint public-private effort to build and operate
  a new plant by the end of the decade
• Early site permitting
• Dominion, Entergy, and Exelon chosen
• Demonstrate NRC licensing processes
• Research advanced technologies
• May not be enough

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Financial Issues

• Financial markets not prepared to finance high
  costs of first new plants
• Power company concerns about earnings dilution
• Concerns about delays in construction
• Concerns about recovering costs in a deregulated
  market
• No credits for non-financial benefits

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Potential Mitigating Actions

• Equity investment, loans, loan guarantees,investme
  nt tax credits, accelerated depreciation, carbon
  free emission credits
• Standby credit facilities for delays due to
  acts of government (regulator)
• Power purchase agreements
• Financial credits for non-financial benefits

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Government Stimulation is Not New

• Stimulate restart of new construction
• Mitigate financial issues
• Risk mitigation by the government is common for
  all sorts of energy not just nuclear

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Bottom Line

• Industry must ask government to mitigate risks
  for new plants
• Vendors must share the risk
• New business model between utilities and vendors
• Energy independence and environmental quality too
  important to leave to short-range market forces

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Bottom Line

• Generation III technology for 2010 plant
• Generation IV promising for long term
• After decades of experience, we can
• Build better and faster
• Be more proliferation resistant
• Have increased safety
• Minimize waste
• Make more than electricity (hydrogen, fresh
  water)
• Be more sustainable
• Become energy independent

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The American Nuclear Society

• The Society for the advancement of nuclear
  science and technology to benefit humanity

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Percent Favor/Oppose Use of Nuclear EnergyAnnual
Averages until 2002
Ref Bisconti Research, Inc. (BRi)
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Nuclear power has best safety record
Deaths from Accidents from Generating
Electricity per Billion MWe-hr
101
Hydro
400-page study of 4,290 energy-related accidents
15,000 deaths related to oil, 8,000 related to
coal, 5,000 related to gas. Paul Scherrer
Institute, Switzerland, 2001
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Coal
10
Gas
1
Nuclear
Includes Chernobyl
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Fossil Fuel Supplies

• Western World must reduce their dependence on oil
• Limit influence on foreign policy
• Reduce cost to economy of oil price shocks
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Prepare for inevitable resource depletion
• Husband oil for other uses
• Reducing oil use is not a solution to terrorism
  but it may help

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Federal Credit Program Examples Abound

• Many agencies use federal credit approaches to
  achieve programmatic goals.
• Budget scoring is a fraction of credit authority
  based on Subsidy rate.
• Examples of federal credit programs
• FY2002
• Program Annual credit Subsidy rate

• Ginnie Mae Mortgages 200.0 B 0.33
• DOEd Food direct loan program 21.6 B 4.00
• SBA General business loans 10.7 B 1.07
• DOA Rural utility electrification 2.6
  B 1.13
• DOT TIFIA for transportation 2.0 B 4.50
• NASA Commercial space 15.0 B TBD
• transportation

Individual projects are evaluated by independent
rating agencies before funding.