Title: Economics Aspect on Power Generation by Biomass in Thailand
1Economics Aspect on Power Generation by Biomass
in Thailand
- Surachet Tamronglak, Ph.D.
- Director
- Biomass One-Stop Clearing House
Biomass to Energy, Bangkok, February 14, 2006
2Agenda
- General assumptions
- Economics of large scale power plants
- Economics of small scale gasifiers
- CDM aspects
3General Assumptions
- Investment includes development, EPC, IDC and
grid connection costs - BOI privilege granted
- D/E ratio 31
- Loan period 7 years
- Interest 6
- Constant loan drawdown during construction
- WACC 7.5
4General Assumptions (contd)
- Project life 15 or 20 years
- Power cost during plant startup included
- Admin. Charge of 2 of total power sales for
projects larger than 1 MW - Fixed fuel prices
- Fixed power tariff (average peak and off-peak TOU
rates plus Ft) - Fixed exchange rate (Baht 40 / US)
5Rice Husk Fired Power Plant
- Gross capacity 6 MW (net 5.3 MW)
- Total investments Baht 340 mil.
- Project life 20 years
- Fuel price Baht 750/ton (incld. transportation)
- Fuel consumption 67,000 tons/year
- OM 3
- Net power sales 37 GWh/year
- IRR 7.25
- NPV Baht -3.4 mil.
6Palm EFB Fired Power Plant
- Gross capacity 6 MW (net 5 MW)
- Total investments Baht 420 mil.
- Project life 20 years
- Fuel price Baht 300/ton (incld. transportation)
- Fuel consumption 103,000 tons/yr
- OM 4
- Net power sales 35.1 GWh/year
- IRR 7.07
- NPV Baht -7.4 mil.
71-MW Gasifier Power Plant
- Gross capacity 1 MW (net 0.9 MW)
- Total investments Baht 45 mil.
- Project life 15 years
- Fuel price Baht 500/ton (incld. transportation)
- Fuel consumption 10,800 tons/year
- OM 5
- Net power sales 6.5 GWh/year
- IRR 30
- NPV Baht 30 mil.
8120-kW Gasifier Power Plant
- Gross capacity 120 kW (net 102 kW)
- Total investments Baht 6.7 mil.
- Project life 15 years
- Fuel price Baht 500/ton (incld. transportation)
- Fuel consumption 1,300 tons/year
- OM 10
- Net power sales 0.73 GWh/year
- IRR 0.33
- NPV Baht -1.5 mil.
9Coal Natural Gas in Power Generation
Natural Gas
Coal
10Natural Gas Demand
- Transportation is not included yet.
11Natural Gas Supply
- Supply includes 3P (33 tcf), while proven reserve
(1P) is approximately 12.5 tcf - At 2005 production level, (3P) R/P is around 45
yrs ( 15 yrs for 1P) - At 2015 production level, R/P is much shorter
- LNG import starts in 2010. More import needed,
if transportation is included
12Grid Emission Factors (ton/MWh)
High Coal
Medium Coal
Low Coal
13CDM Aspect Case Study 1/3
- Case Study
- 8.8 MW (net) biomass power plant
- 480 million Baht investment
- D/E ratio 31
- Interest 6.5
- 20-year plant life
- Without CDM, IRR 11, NPV 84.5 mil.
- CER prices 7.5 and 15 per ton
14CDM Aspect Case Study 2/3
7.5 net CER price
- Without CDM, NPV 84.5 mil.Baht, IRR 11
15CDM Aspect Case Study 3/3
15 net CER price
16CDM Aspect All RE Potential
15 net CER price
- Total RE potential 12,200 GWh/yr or 1,860 MW
(biomass 1,400 MW, biogas 160, solar 100 MW, wind
100 MW and MSW 100 MW)
17Conclusions
- Economy of scales works here
- Fuel cost is also a critical factor
- Some small scale projects and projects burning
difficult fuels need help - CDM can be beneficial
18- Thank you for your attention
- Tel 66-1-837-8525
- surachet_at_efe.or.th