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Economics Aspect on Power Generation by Biomass in Thailand

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Investment includes development, EPC, IDC and grid connection costs. BOI privilege granted ... Fixed power tariff (average peak and off-peak TOU rates plus Ft) ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Economics Aspect on Power Generation by Biomass in Thailand


1
Economics Aspect on Power Generation by Biomass
in Thailand
  • Surachet Tamronglak, Ph.D.
  • Director
  • Biomass One-Stop Clearing House

Biomass to Energy, Bangkok, February 14, 2006
2
Agenda
  • General assumptions
  • Economics of large scale power plants
  • Economics of small scale gasifiers
  • CDM aspects

3
General Assumptions
  • Investment includes development, EPC, IDC and
    grid connection costs
  • BOI privilege granted
  • D/E ratio 31
  • Loan period 7 years
  • Interest 6
  • Constant loan drawdown during construction
  • WACC 7.5

4
General Assumptions (contd)
  • Project life 15 or 20 years
  • Power cost during plant startup included
  • Admin. Charge of 2 of total power sales for
    projects larger than 1 MW
  • Fixed fuel prices
  • Fixed power tariff (average peak and off-peak TOU
    rates plus Ft)
  • Fixed exchange rate (Baht 40 / US)

5
Rice Husk Fired Power Plant
  • Gross capacity 6 MW (net 5.3 MW)
  • Total investments Baht 340 mil.
  • Project life 20 years
  • Fuel price Baht 750/ton (incld. transportation)
  • Fuel consumption 67,000 tons/year
  • OM 3
  • Net power sales 37 GWh/year
  • IRR 7.25
  • NPV Baht -3.4 mil.

6
Palm EFB Fired Power Plant
  • Gross capacity 6 MW (net 5 MW)
  • Total investments Baht 420 mil.
  • Project life 20 years
  • Fuel price Baht 300/ton (incld. transportation)
  • Fuel consumption 103,000 tons/yr
  • OM 4
  • Net power sales 35.1 GWh/year
  • IRR 7.07
  • NPV Baht -7.4 mil.

7
1-MW Gasifier Power Plant
  • Gross capacity 1 MW (net 0.9 MW)
  • Total investments Baht 45 mil.
  • Project life 15 years
  • Fuel price Baht 500/ton (incld. transportation)
  • Fuel consumption 10,800 tons/year
  • OM 5
  • Net power sales 6.5 GWh/year
  • IRR 30
  • NPV Baht 30 mil.

8
120-kW Gasifier Power Plant
  • Gross capacity 120 kW (net 102 kW)
  • Total investments Baht 6.7 mil.
  • Project life 15 years
  • Fuel price Baht 500/ton (incld. transportation)
  • Fuel consumption 1,300 tons/year
  • OM 10
  • Net power sales 0.73 GWh/year
  • IRR 0.33
  • NPV Baht -1.5 mil.

9
Coal Natural Gas in Power Generation
Natural Gas
Coal
10
Natural Gas Demand
  • Transportation is not included yet.

11
Natural Gas Supply
  • Supply includes 3P (33 tcf), while proven reserve
    (1P) is approximately 12.5 tcf
  • At 2005 production level, (3P) R/P is around 45
    yrs ( 15 yrs for 1P)
  • At 2015 production level, R/P is much shorter
  • LNG import starts in 2010. More import needed,
    if transportation is included

12
Grid Emission Factors (ton/MWh)
High Coal
Medium Coal
Low Coal
13
CDM Aspect Case Study 1/3
  • Case Study
  • 8.8 MW (net) biomass power plant
  • 480 million Baht investment
  • D/E ratio 31
  • Interest 6.5
  • 20-year plant life
  • Without CDM, IRR 11, NPV 84.5 mil.
  • CER prices 7.5 and 15 per ton

14
CDM Aspect Case Study 2/3
7.5 net CER price
  • Without CDM, NPV 84.5 mil.Baht, IRR 11

15
CDM Aspect Case Study 3/3
15 net CER price
16
CDM Aspect All RE Potential
15 net CER price
  • Total RE potential 12,200 GWh/yr or 1,860 MW
    (biomass 1,400 MW, biogas 160, solar 100 MW, wind
    100 MW and MSW 100 MW)

17
Conclusions
  • Economy of scales works here
  • Fuel cost is also a critical factor
  • Some small scale projects and projects burning
    difficult fuels need help
  • CDM can be beneficial

18
  • Thank you for your attention
  • Tel 66-1-837-8525
  • surachet_at_efe.or.th
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