Title: Decisions, Decisions: How to make good decisions
1Decisions, DecisionsHow to make good decisions
- Alleene Anne Ferguson Pingenot, Ph.D.
- HealthQWest Decision Making Program
- University of Stirling
2How Do You Know a Decision is Good?
- options grow out of values, in the light of
situational constraints and opportunities. - Ward Edwards (1999)
3Decision Analysis
- Used to
- evaluate programs
- allocate resources to conflicting interests
- provide guidance for on-going programs
- Tool Multi-attribute Utility Technology
- (MAUT)
4Decisions Under Uncertainty
- The probability of x reflects only how much one
knows about x - Whether a decision is good or not is about
process, not outcome - If the outcome is certain, there is no decision
to be made
5MAUT is based on 6 Principles
- Compare alternatives
- Ensure all stakeholders are represented
- Expect multiple conflicting goals
- There will always be a subjective component
- When judging magnitude, use numerical statements
- Stay on task
6Essential Elements of Decision Analysis
Logic
A L T E R N A T I V E
P R E F E R E N C E
K N O W L E D G
Howard, 2007
7How To Make a Rational Decision Specify the
Problem
- Describe the problem
- 2. What is the goal of the decision?
- 3. Identify stakeholders
- 4. Identify values of stakeholders
- 5. Identify options
8Select a Way to Analyse the Problem
- Is uncertainty the key?
- Is conflicting values between different
stakeholders key? - What kind of analysis best captures and
structures the issues?
9Develop a Detailed Structure for Analysis
- Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis
- Options across top
- Prioritized Values down left side
10Summary
- Most of the up front work is in defining the
problem and setting goal - Ensure that have clear idea of who is making the
final decision (and why) - Ensure all stakeholders are involved in the
process
11Summary, Continued
- Values and their prioritization involves
discussion by all stakeholders - From that discussion, keeping original goal in
mind select options from which to choose - Finally, rate options on the prioritized values
12In Closing
- Decision Making carries no guarantee of ideal
results - Study the problem together to structure it in
such a way that you make the best decision with
the knowledge you have at the time under the
constraints that exist
13Notes How do you know a decision is
Good? Edwards (quoted by Vlek in Shanteau,
Mellers and Schum, 1999) Evaluating a decision
as good or not must depend on the stakes and the
odds, not on the outcome....options grow out of
values, in the light of situational constraints
and opportunities. He then goes on to discuss
the importance of carefully structuring the
problem for decision analysis. Decision analysis
was one of the many important practical
contributions Ward Edwards made to the study of
decision making. A very practical method of
decision analysis he developed is
Multi-attribute Utility Technology (MAUT).
14- MAUT
-
- Used for evaluating program, allocating resources
to conflicting interests, and providing guidance
ongoing programs. - Designed to be easily used by people not familiar
with technical issues of decision analysis. - Based on 6 principles (paraphrased from Edwards
Newman, 1982)
15- The Six Principles
- Evaluations should compare alternatives
- Ensure all stakeholders should be represented
Useful for situations where there are multiple
stakeholders in the decision to be made - Expect to have multiple conflicting goals, but
not all are of equal importance.Evaluations need
to assess how well a course of action serves each
goal.Therefore use multiple measures of
effectiveness subjective numerical estimates of
how much, how long, etc. data from research
when available - Judgements are inevitably a part of any
evaluation. (there will always be a subjective
component to evaluation) - When judging magnitude, use numerical statements
(simplifies combining estimates into an overall
evaluation) - Evaluations generally should be relevant to the
decision. (stay on task)
16Suggested further reading Smart Choices A
Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions
(Paperback) by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney,
Howard Raiffa quote "decisions shape our
lives..." (Note although this book is written
for lay readers, the authors are well known
leaders in the field of decision making research)