The Future of Healthcare

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Chapter 14

• The Future of Healthcare

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Factors that Will Shape the Future of Healthcare
Services

• Changes in death and disease patterns
• Increased life expectancy
• Further economic strain
• Will require
• Balance between acute care, disease management
  and rehab services
• Emergent and resurgent infectious diseases
• New challenges for public health
• Environmental health concerns
• With added life expectancy
• HIV/AIDS will continue to grow

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Factors that Will Shape the Future of Healthcare
Services

• Wellness, prevention and health promotion
• Continued push on prevention wellness
• Implications for providers?
• Partnerships between community medical
  establishment
• Access, cost issues
• Funding??
• MCOs, Hospitals and IDS will lead the charge

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Factors that Will Shape the Future of Healthcare
Services

• Wellness, prevention and health promotion
• Social issues will get great focus of healthcare
  system
• Housing, violence, balanced nutrition, etc.
• Public health will take center stage
• Disease, prevention, et. al.
• All this will require innovative partnerships
• Example Orange County and ORH / ORMC

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Changes in Workforce

• Nurses will continue to be employed in alternate
  settings
• Push on other care providers in acute care
  settings
• Geographic maldistribution of MDs likely to
  continue
• Shift to other care providers in underserved
  areas
• PA, NP, Paramedic (current HB)

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Changes in Workforce

• Aggregate MD surplus
• Deficit in PC docs
• Diversification of workers
• Will lead to increasing challenges for managers
• Cross-training of providers will be necessary

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Financing of Care

• Expenditures expected to reach 2 trillion by
  2008
• Gulp
• Single payer system is LEAST likely to be adopted
  of all reform efforts why?
• ______________________
• ______________________

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What its all about
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Financing of Care

• Ad hoc state initiatives
• Medicaid expansion
• Insurance risk pools for high risk
• Insurance reform for small groups / individuals
• Cooperatives, pools
• Employer mandates
• County consideration for bids??
• Medical Savings Accounts

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Managed Care

• MCO will continue to be the primary financing
  mechanism
• Despite consumer complaints
• Some changes will occur
• Will come under increasing scrutiny for cost
  containment
• Advanced HMOs will eventually evolve

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Long Term Care

• Aging population will continue to strain the LTC
  system
• By 2030, 20 of the population will be Medicare
  eligible
• 14 now
• Policy initiatives for LTC insurance will gain
  popularity
• Maybe even by policy

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The Uninsured

• The healthcare system will need to seriously
  address this problem
• Private insurance has not taken this seriously so
  far
• If not addressed, national healthcare may become
  real possibility

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Technology

• Telemedicine will play increasing role
• Distance Dx and Tx for underserved areas
• Life prolonging technology will lead to moral and
  ethical challenges
• Too many people
• Stem cell research
• Cloning
• Gene Mapping

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See you next week