Fertility trends in Europe: parity analysis

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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Daniel Devolder Centre of Demographic
Studies Barcelona Autonomous University email
ddevolder_at_ced.uab.es
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis

• Introduction
• Study of fertility trends in the last one hundred
  years, in European countries, with a focus on the
  last thirty years (during the so-called second
  demographic transition).
• We want to show that it is indispensable to take
  account of parity in order to explain the changes
  of fertility in time.
• In order to simplify a bit, we will restrict our
  analysis to first births on one hand, and all
  others births as a group on the other.

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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis

• Crisis in fertility analysis
• In the last decade, fertility analysis has
  switched from the cohort perspective championed
  by Ryder since the 1950s to the period approach
  defended by Rallu and Toulemon, Bongaarts and
  Feeney.
• But the measure of period fertility intensity (or
  quantum) is in a state of complete disarray we
  can now calculate it in more than ten different
  ways, with different results, but have no clear
  criterion to choose one of them.
• This explain why in the present study we will use
  a mix of cohort and period approach, in a
  pragmatic way.

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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis

• Ryders decomposition of fertility
• We will use Norman Ryders methods as a guide for
  the decomposition of fertility into its
  components of change by parity.
• First there is Ryder translation formulae that
  explain period total fertility (PF) as the
  product of cohort fertility quantum (CF, the
  cohort total fertility of women born
  approximately thirty years ago) by the changes in
  cohort fertility tempo (the variation in time of
  the cohort mean age at childbearing m).

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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Ryders formulae can be extended to take account
of births by order, and more specifically, births
of first order on one hand, and on other one,
births of all other orders
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Ryders formulae can be extended to take account
of births by order, and more specifically, births
of first order on one hand, and on other one,
births of all other orders
p0-gt1 is the proportion of women who have at
least one child (the complement to one of the
proportion childless). CF1 is the cohort
fertility of mothers, that is the number of
children for women who have at least one child.
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Ryders formulae can be extended to take account
of births by order, and more specifically, births
of first order on one hand, and on other one,
births of all other orders
m1 is the cohort mean age at first
childbearing. I is the mean birth interval and k
is the mean number of these intervals.
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
If we begin by changes in tempo, we can say that
the postponement of childbearing in Europe has
been one of the most remarkable aspects of
fertility evolution in recent times.
Evolution of cohort mean age at childbearing in
Western European countries
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Postponement of fertility is in fact explained by
the postponement of parenthood recent changes
in the age at childbearing are totally explained
by changes in the age at first childbearing. R
2 is the determination coefficient between the
cohort mean age at childbearing and the age at
first childbearing.
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
The evolution of quantum Childlessness is
increasing in Europe, since the 1945 birth
cohort...
Census
Civil Registration
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
... the increase in childlessness is the main
factor in the recent evolution of the quantum of
cohort fertility in Europe... (p0-gt1
is the complement to one of the proportion
childless)
- - - - Census Civil registration
- - - - Census Civil registration
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
... and the rise in childlessness hides the
stability or the increase in the fertility of
mothers (p0-gt1 is the complement to
one of the proportion childless)
- - - - Census Civil registration
- - - - Census Civil registration
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Components of variance of total cohort fertility
of variance explained by the variations of
childlessness and the fertility of mothers I -
Western Europe
First demographic transition and the baby boom
Second demographic transition
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Components of variance of total cohort fertility
of variance explained by the variations of
childlessness and the fertility of mothers II
Southern and Northern Europe
First demographic transition and the baby boom
Second demographic transition
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Back to period fertility The evolution of
fertility of mothers in Europe in the last 40
years
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis
Period fertility of mothers in Central and
Eastern Europe the drop and the recovery in some
countries during the 1990s
Constant during the 1990s
Drop and recovery during the 1990s
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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis

• Conclusions
• The changes in time of behaviours related to the
  decision to become a parent are now the principal
  factor in the explanation of the fertility trends
  in Europe in the last thirty years.
• Variations in tempo are totally explained by the
  increase in the age at first childbearing.
• Variations in quantum in countries with a high
  level of childlessness are dominated by the
  changes in fertility for the first birth order.

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Fertility trends in Europe parity analysis

• Conclusions
• On the contrary the fertility of parents is
  almost stable since the 1970s, and it is probable
  it will not change much in the future, because
  its levels are very close to desired or planned
  fertility one.
• The fertility will increase in the future in
  Europe only if childlessness decrease. This could
  happen if young adults change their life style
  and there is a reversal towards earlier
  fertility, and a decrease in the age at first
  childbearing, something difficult to envision now.