The lowest low fertility threat is still here

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The lowest low fertility threat is still here
DEPARTMENT of DEMOGRAPHY and GEODEMOGRAPHY Faculty
of Science, Charles University in
Prague Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha, Czech
Republic Tel [phone] E-mail
rychta_at_natur.cuni.cz URL https//portal.natur.c
uni.cz/geografie/demografie
Jitka Rychtaríková

CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Current fertility and future prospects for Europe
Is the expected TFR increase realistic in low
fertility countries ?
Europop2008 Convergence scenario (convergence
year 2150)
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Outlines

• Cohort and cross-sectional trends
• When the years 1987 and 2007 are compared
• Changes in fertility by birth order
• Changes in fertility by education
• Changes in fertility by marital status
• Reconciliation between work and family
• Attitudes towards pre-school care
• Availability of facilities

CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Can the Czech Republic hope for the future
fertility recovery?
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Basic fertility indicators in the Czech Republic
TRENDS
Decrease in the TFR Increase of percentage of
childless women Increase of maternal age Increase
of percentage of extramarital births
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Increase in childlessness, in one parent
families, and the emergence of a
pro-family-specific population group
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Intensity and structural change in fertility has
been profound
Reduced fertility rates by birth order and
education
TFR 1987 1,91 2007 1,44
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Women with higher education prefer traditional
family
Percentage of extramarital live births 1987
7,42 2007 34,49
Percentage born to single women 1987
5,15 2007 27,94
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Intensity change in fertility affected the least
single women with the highest education
Reduced fertility rates by birth order and
education
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Intensity and structural change in marital
fertility affected everybody in different level
and direction
Reduced fertility rates by birth order and
education
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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A pre-school child is likely to suffer if his/her
mother works
Probability modeled is agreement with the above
statement

• Males
• Increase with age
• Lower education
• Childless

Generations and Gender Survey 2005 Czech
Republic 7 263 respondents Logistic regression
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Number of available places for childer under 3
years has dramatically decreased
Kindergartens percentage of children attending
in 2004/2005 Age 3 77,1 Age 4 93,4 Age
5 94,1 Age less than 3 26,4
CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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Conclusions and future prospects

• Fertility decline is irreversible.
• Structural change by education and marital status
  will depressed fertility level in the future.
• Reconciliation between work and family has been
  turned down.
• The assumption related to the future fertility
  level (TFR1,52) in the Czech Republic (2060)
  seems to be overestimated.

CEFRES 18.12.2008 Fertility issues in connection
with family and dependency policies in France and
in the group of Visegrad countries
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CEFRES 18.12.2008