Overview of the ESKOM Winter 2006 Plan

1
Overview of the ESKOM Winter 2006 Plan Outlook
for 2007

• Parliament Briefing
• May 2006

2
Content

• Introduction
• Supply Demand Balance
• Load Forecast
• Capacity Plan
• Risks and Mitigation
• Transmission Corridors and Bulk Supply Points
• Corridors
• Firmness of Supply
• Risks and Mitigation
• Distribution Network
• Risks and Mitigation
• 2007 Outlook
• Principles of managing shortage of supply

3
Introduction

• The aim of this presentation is to share the
  prognosis for the Winter of 2006 (1 May 2006 to
  30 September 2006) in terms of the ability to
  generate sufficient energy to meet the demand in
  South Africa and the ability to transport this
  energy to the customer and to provide a brief
  outlook for 2007.
• A classification methodology to indicate the
  level of generation capacity adequacy and
  transmission network adequacy is described.
• The prognosis based on this classification is
  provided on a weekly basis as the base plan.
• Key risks that could affect this base plan are
  identified and mitigation strategies described.
• Principles to manage any supply-demand imbalance
  are described.

4
Classification of Generation Capacity and
Transmission Network Adequacy
5
Generation Capacity (MW)

• The weekly maximum Power Demand is forecast for
  52 weeks in 2006
• The required Operating Reserves is 1 900MW which
  is needed to manage real time demand variations
  and sudden loss of import or generation.
• The Required Supply is the sum of Power Demand
  and Operating Reserves.
• The Actual Supply on weekly basis is the
  operational capacity in ESKOM less the sum of the
  plant on planned maintenance and known unplanned
  or forced outages.
• The current operational capacity in ESKOM
  excludes the Camden units as their reliability
  has to be established through operational
  experience.
• The import from Cahora Bassa is planned to be
  1050MW.

6
Classification

• Green
• Supply deficit lt1000MW.
• Probably use of DMP resources and EL1.
• Orange
• Supply deficit between 1000 MW and 2000 MW
• Probably use Interruptible loads.
• Red
• Supply deficit between 2000 MW and 3000 MW
• Probably use interruptible loads and have some
  mandatory load shedding.
• Brown
• Supply defeicit gt 3000MW.
• Probably have rotating mandatory load shedding

7
Winter 2006 Supply Demand Balance
8
Resources Available
(RTS excluded)
9
Emergency Resources
Additional Emergency DMP available in week 19
10
Classification of Capacity Adequacy
11
Supply Demand Balance
12
Risks Mitigation - Generation
13
Key Conclusion Generation Capacity

• We have enough available capacity but it very
  tight
• We have about 500MW additional emergency DMP and
  more is being sourced
• Key risks
• Impact of Koeberg on the national situation
• Technical problems on the running plants(loading
  and age)
• Higher demand than expected( weather and
  commodity prices)
• We are focused at avoiding mandatory load
  shedding at a national level at all costs.
• However multiple technical problems can
• result in load shedding.

14
Transmission Corridors and Bulk Supply Points
15
Transmission Network Adequacy

• Transmission Corridors supplying a significant
  geographical area from the Mpumalanga Generation
  Pool were identified .
• The demand in these areas has been forecast and
  the capacity of these corridors assessed through
  power system studies.
• Classification is as follows
• Green The corridor can supply the peak demand
  even if a single credible contingency occurs
  (N-1).
• Orange The corridor can supply the peak demand
  if no contingency occurs (N-0) and a contingency
  plan exists to re-configure the distribution
  network to supply the load. Interruption of
  supply could occur based on the nature of the
  contingency and the load will then be restored.
• Red The corridor cannot supply the peak demand
  with the existing network and load shedding is
  required over the peak periods.
• Brown The corridor cannot supply the demand at
  peak periods as well as at other times of the day
  and rotational load shedding is required
  throughout the day.

16
Corridors
17
Firmness of Supply Major Cities
18
Risks Mitigation - Transmission
19
Key Conclusion Transmission Grid

• The Cape corridor remains a risk until Koeberg
  units are back
• Risk at the other corridors are considered low
• Risks of double contingencies are always present

20
Distribution Network
21
Risks Mitigation - Distribution
22
2007 Outlook
23
Capacity outlook for 2007
24
Principles of Managing Shortage of Supply
25
Principles

• Supplying energy at the lowest cost is a key
  driver
• Optimize supply side resource usage specifically
  on the primary energy side and the high
  availability of our generation units
• Creation of innovative demand side products
• Supplying high quality energy to our customer
  base is a key driver
• Well defined system reliability (security
  adequacy) requirements
• Tight operational control with primary focus on
  grid security
• Equitable execution of supply and demand side
  options to meet lowest cost and high supply
  quality drivers
• Clear operational procedures for scheduling
  dispatch
• Operational discretion in special circumstances
• Merit order of resources to use to meet supply
  mismatch
• Shortage of Supply does not mean blackouts!
• One can predict shortfalls and schedule emergency
  resources and if that runs out have controlled
  load shedding managed by regional control
  centres.
• Sudden loss of generation due to faults are
  managed through the utilisation of operational
  reserves and automatic under-frequency load
  shedding schemes which prevents cascading
  outages.
• Load is then restored in a controlled fashion.

26
Thank You Questions?