SocialPolitical Research Unit

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Social-Political Research Unit
SPEC Barometer Results April 2009
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Survey background
The Social, Political, Economic and Cultural
Barometer (SPEC) is conducted every three months
by the Steadman Group (Now Synovate). The main
objective of this particular survey is to assess
the general public opinion on several political
and social issues. The survey assessed the
following issues Government performance Public
Trust in various public institutions and
personalities Performance of the various public
personalities Evaluation of the power sharing
agreement Political parties alignment
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Poll Methodology
The target population for this survey was all
Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A
sample size of 2,035 respondents was drawn, using
a 3565 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error
attributed to sampling and other random effects
of this polls sample size is /- 2.2 margin at
95 confidence level. This sample size is large
enough to make reliable estimates on the target
population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey
was conducted between 13th-17th April. Data were
collected through Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing (CATI). CATI is a call-centre
approach towards survey interviewing, and
consists of two systems (1) a computer system
(both hardware and software) for administering
electronic questionnaires, and (2) a telephone
system for contacting the respondents. This
system is advantageous in that it is fast and
accurate (so that data collection was completed
only yesterday), with responses entered into
computers as the phone interviews are being
conducted. CATI is the main method of data
collection for opinion poll data in the developed
world (where phone ownership/use is nearly
universal).
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Poll Methodology (Cont)
To administer SPEC survey on CATI, a database of
50,000 Kenyans aged 18 was used. This database
has been accumulated over time by Steadman
Synovate (and is continuing to be augmented). In
this database, comprising the sampling frame,
respondent information such as demographics and
geographical location was collected, including
ownership of/access to mobile phones, allowing
those respondents to be contacted by this (CATI)
method. To achieve the sample for this opinion
polls, a randomized multi-stage stratified design
using probability proportional to size (PPS) on
this database was used. Doing this ensured
geographical representation, i.e., explicitly in
terms of province and setting (urban/rural) to
match the sample structure of previous polls and
implicitly reflecting the distribution of
population over Kenyas districts. During the
interview process, those who were not reached at
the first attempt (either because the number was
busy or the call did not go through), automatic
appointments/call backs were programmed by the
CATI software. In the event that no contact was
made after 5 attempts on different days and
times, this number was substituted. The data
collection involved the use of an electronic
semi-structured questionnaire having both open
and closed-ended questions. The survey questions
were structured so as to allow for a broad range
of opinion-options, including no opinion. This
eliminates bias in the way the questions are
asked, and responses captured. Strict quality
control measures for data collection were
applied. The CATI Supervisors made a minimum of
15 back-checks to ascertain whether the calls
were actually made and if the responses given
were correct.
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Government Service/Sector Area Performance
Ratings
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How satisfied are you with the way the
Government is dealing with the issues facing our
country?
Base All Respondents
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Trust and Approval Ratings of Top Leaders and
Institutions
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How much trust you have in each of the following
people or institutions? saying a lot of trust
Base All Respondents
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To what extent do you approve of the overall
performance of? saying Highly disapprove
Base All Respondents
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Attitudes and Expectations Towards the
Power-Sharing Agreement
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Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga
Base All Respondents
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Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga by
Total, Province Setting
Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit
Base All Respondents
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Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga
Time Series
Base All Respondents
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How likely do you think it is that the Grand
Coalition Government will serve out its full
time in office, until 2012?
Base All Respondents
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How likely do you think that the Grand Coalition
Government will serve out its full time in
office, until 2012? By Total, Province
Setting.
Base All Respondents
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Given the current tensions in the coalition
government, which would you suggest is a way
forward?
Base All Respondents
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Do you want the next election to be held on
scheduled in 2012 or earlier?
Base All Respondents
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Political Party Alignment and Correlations
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Which political party do you feel closest to, if
any?
Base All Respondents
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Political Party Alignment by Total Province
Base All Respondents
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Which political party do you feel closest to, if
any? Time series
Base All Respondents
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Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga by
Political Party Alignment
Base All Respondents
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Given the current tensions in the coalition
government, which would you suggest is a way
forward? by Political Party Alignment
Base All Respondents
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Do you want the next election to be held on
scheduled in 2012 or earlier? by Political
Party Alignment
Base All Respondents
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Preferred (Possible) Presidential Candidate in
Next Election
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If an election for president were held now, who
would you vote for, if that person were a
candidate?
Base All Respondents