Proposed Revisions to Councils Fuel Price Forecasts

1
Proposed Revisions to Councils Fuel Price
Forecasts

• Natural Gas Advisory Committee
• June 27, 2007

2
5th Plan Natural Gas PriceCompared to More
Recent
3
5th Plan Natural Gasand Proposed Revision
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Revised Natural Gas Price Forecast Compared to
Others
5
Natural Gas Price(2006/MMBtu)
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Western Natural Gas Prices
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Natural Gas Prices to PNW
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Basis Differentials
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West-Side Delivery Cost
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East-Side Delivery Cost
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Other Assumptions

• LCD delivery cost for large customer?
• Capacity release rates?
• What share of firm pipeline capacity cost might
  be recovered from release market?
• Incremental long-term capacity cost?
• Any firm gas supply premium? Share of firm
  supply for electricity generator?

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5th Plan Oil Price RangeCompared to Recent
Forecasts
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Proposed Revisionof Oil Price Forecast
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Revised Oil Price ForecastCompared to Other
Recent Forecasts
15
World Oil Price(2006/Barrel)
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Revised Coal Price Forecast Compared to AEO 2007
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Coal Price Forecast Rangeand Assumed Growth Rates
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Comparative Fuel PricesIndustrial Sector
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Historical Comparative Prices
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Ratio of Real Crude Price Per Barrel to Wellhead
NG Price Per MMBtu