Module 4 Analysis

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Module 4 Analysis Interpretation of MDG
Statistics Indicators
4.2.3 Analysing and interpreting results
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Analyse trends

• In relation to enabling policies and programmes
  implemented
• Highlight policies which have facilitated
  progress towards achieving the goal/target
• Where progress has not been good discuss key
  policy and programme changes required
• INVOLVE STAKEHOLDERS in this kind of policy /
  programme analysis as the primary agents of change

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Information about development situation

• Common information included in country reports
  (in the introduction or for each goal) should be
  included to show broader development context
• Macro economic policy framework
• Design and implementation of key programmes
  policies resources allocated targeted
  beneficiaries and projected outcomes highlight
  those which need improving
• Emerging issues to be addressed
• Resource / technical assistance requirements to
  meet national goals, objectives and targets (in a
  broad sense eg redesign of taxation base to keep
  government revenue stable)

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National priorities

• Summaries should be included with relevant
  goals along with performance indicators and
  progress made
• Not too much detail but general information
  remember that the MDGR has a very broad target
  audience
• Sub-national, gender, youth and other relevant
  groups in the population should be included in
  the analysis

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Include emerging issues

• Modify or generate indicators based on
• Emerging issues in the country
• Availability of data information gaps and
  strategies to reduce them
• Sub national information requirements
• Getting key messages across to decision makers
• Complexity or simplicity of indicators
• Keep the focus on outcomes (rather than on
  inputs)
• Where progress hasnt been good
• Highlight reasons for setbacks/delays
• List possible strategies to follow
• List possible policy/project interventions

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Present the broader context

• Remember the inter-linkages and relationships
  between the MDGs and the determinants, effects
  and outcomes note where these exist
• Poverty and general health status
• General health and economic output
• Economic output and poverty

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i entry point
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Presenting the indicators

• KEEP IT SIMPLE, or produce a second technical
  report for this specialised audience
• Charts
• Maps GIS
• Simple tabulations or cross tabulations (gender,
  areas)
• Ranking
• Scaling
• Time series

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Charts for different provinces, gender etc
Information brought together in the pie chart for
comparison
The scale MUST be kept the same on the different
charts
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Tables where range is high
Range is from 44 to 240, a lot of different
values so a table is used rather than a chart
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Shading on tables to show range
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Timelines simple to understand
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Pictures provide powerful messages
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Conclusions

• Present the findings and what they mean even if
  this is not so good (eg rate of decline stagnated
  or worsening situation)
• For such situations end the discussion positively
  by pointing the way forward in terms of what is
  required to reverse the situation resources,
  technical assistance, projects, reforms etc
• Remember that the MDGR is an advocacy document
  for ALL stakeholders and for ALL readers
  (including the public and donors)

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Statistical annex

• Include this in your report for the international
  agencies to pick up your indicators as well as
  the technical audience to see (in broad terms)
  how the indicators were derived
• Include your input data and the indicator so
  adjustments can be made (eg PPP factors added to
  the poverty measures if population, poverty
  lines, and other input statistics are included)

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Any questions?