Energy Technology Perspectives Scenarios and Strategies to 2050

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Energy Technology PerspectivesScenarios and
Strategies to 2050
Fridtjof Unander Deputy Executive Director Enova
SF(International Energy Agency until September
2006)
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G8 - Gleneagles Communiqué July 2005
We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our
shared multiple objectives of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, improving the global
environment, enhancing energy security and
cutting air pollution in conjunction with our
vigorous efforts to reduce poverty The IEA
will advise on alternative energy scenarios and
strategies aimed at a clean, clever and
competitive energy future
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2006
ETP 2006 provides part of IEAs advice on
scenarios and strategies ETP 2006 presents a
groundbreaking review of technologies across all
sectors and assess how they together can make a
difference
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Energy Technology PerspectivesPresents

• Status and perspectives for key energy
  technologies in
• Power Generation
• Transport
• Buildings and Appliances
• Industry
• Global scenarios to illustrate potentials for
  different technologies under accelerated policies
  
• Strategies for helping key technologies make a
  difference

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Scenario Analysis

• Scenarios analysed
• Baseline Scenario
• Accelerated Technology Scenarios (ACT)
• TECH Plus scenario
• ACT and TECH Plus scenarios
• Analyse the impact from RD, Demonstration and
  Deployment measures
• Incentives equivalent to 25 USD/tonne CO2 for
  low-carbon technologies implemented world-wide
  from 2030 and on
• Individual scenarios differ in terms of
  assumptions for key technology areas

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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050Baseline Scenario
Emissions increase 137 from todays level
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050Baseline and Map
Scenario
Map Scenario Emissions returned towards todays
level
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050Baseline and ACT
Scenarios
Without CCS Emissions and costs increase
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050Baseline and ACT
Scenarios
Lower efficiency progress Higher emissions and
costs
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050Baseline, ACT and
TECH plus Scenarios
TECH Plus More optimistic on progress for
certain key technologies
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Emission Reduction by Sectors
MAP Scenario 2050 32 Gt CO2 Reduction
Industry 10
Energy feedstock effic. 6
Materials products effic. 1
Process innovation 1
Cogen. steam 2
Coal to gas 5
End-use efficiency 45
Buildings 18
Nuclear 6
Space heating 3
Fossil fuel gen. eff 1
Air conditioning 3
Lighting, misc. 3.5
Power Gen 34
CCS 12
Water heat., cooking 1
Appliances 7.5
Hydro 2
Biomass 2
Transport 17
Other renew. 6
Fuel economy in transport 17
CCS in fuel transformation 3
CCS in industry 5
Biofuels in transport 6
Fuel mix in building 5 and industry 2
End-use efficiency offers the largest potential
(45) Power Gen. 34,
CO2 Capture Storage (CCS) 20

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Power Generation
Energy efficiency reduces electricity demand by a
third
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Cost Implications Power Generation

• Increasing long-term prices for fossil fuels will
  drive up cost of power generation
• Heavy investment needed to replace and expand
  generation capacity
• Baseline to 203011200 billion (global), 1700
  billion (Europe)
• Investment per kWh increases with more renewables
  and CCS (but less over time)
• Improved energy efficiency substantially reduce
  need for supply side investments and fuel imports
• Net cost for consumers in the long-run is minimal
  or negative

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE
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Insights from the Scenario Analysis
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Scenario Analysis Key Findings

• Most energy still comes from fossil fuels in 2050
• Global CO2 emissions can be returned towards
  todays level by 2050
• Growth in global oil and electricity demand can
  be halved
• Power generation can be substantially
  de-carbonised by 2050
• De-carbonising transport will take longer but
  must be achieved in the second half of the century

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE
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Energy Efficiency - A top Priority

• Improved energy efficiency can save the
  equivalent of 60 of current emissions by 2050
• Improved efficiency halves expected growth in
  electricity demand and reduces the need for
  generation capacity by a third
• Lower efficiency progress increases supply-side
  investments and costs of reducing CO2 emissions

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE
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Electricity GenerationCCS and Renewables are key

• CCS is crucial for the role coal can play in a
  CO2 constrained world without CCS coal-fired
  generation in 2050 drops below todays level
• By 2050 more than 5000 TWh electricity globally
  can be produced by coal-plants equipped with CCS
• There is an urgent need for more RD and for
  full-scale CCS demonstration plants
• Generation from renewables can quadruple by 2050
• Nuclear can gain a more important role in
  countries where it is acceptable

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE
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Transport Key to Reduce Growth in Oil Demand

• Share of biofuels in transport by 2050 is 13 and
  average 2050 vehicle is 40-50 more efficient
  than today
• Reduce expected growth in transport oil demand by
  almost 50
• Transport accounts for 62 of the 42 mbpd total
  oil savings by 2050, which more than halves the
  expected growth in total oil demand
• Hydrogen can reduce transport oil demand and CO2
  emissions even further and can be crucial for
  long-term sustainability

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE
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Key Technologies

• A technology portfolio will be needed
• Improving energy efficiency is top priority
• CCS is key for a sustainable energy future
• Other important technologies
• Renewables, including biofuels
• Nuclear
• Efficient use of natural gas
• In time and with effort, hydrogen and fuel cells

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE
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Costs

• None of the technologies have higher incremental
  costs than 25 USD/tonne CO2
• Significant transitional costs for RDD and
  deployment programs
• Improved energy efficiency substantially reduce
  need for supply side investments and fuel imports
• Progress in efficiency and CCS key to keep
  mitigation costs down

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE
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