Foresight in the Czech Republic

1
Foresight in the Czech Republic

• Karel Klusacek
• Technology Centre ASCR
• Project coordinator
• Technology Foresight for EU Enlargement
• International Conference
• October 3, 2002
• Sheraton Hotel Balkan, Sofia, Bulgaria

2
Background

• Project was ordered by the Czech Government
  through the Ministry of Education
• Project was managed by the consortium of the
  Technology Centre AS CR (principal contractor)
  and the Engineering Academy CR
• National RD Policy approved by the Czech
  Government in January 2000 is the background of
  the project
• Project deadline 30.12.2001 (exercise lasted 13
  months)

3
Project objectives

• To propose
• a set of national priorities of oriented research
  with a particular emphasis on matching the
  anticipated needs of the society in the time
  horizon of 10 years
• To suggest
• a suitable system for management of the National
  Program of Oriented Research
• rules for Program implementation

4
Project organisation structure
Coordination Committee
Ministry of Education
Project Mgmt Group
International Panel of Experts
Executive Team
External Experts
Expert Panels
Reference Panel
5
Stages of the project
Appointment of a management group
XII 2000
Structure building
Identification of Sectors
Location of experts
I-III 2001
Interviews (demand side)
Desk research (strategic docs, economy, RD
structure)
Sectoral SWOT analyses (experts)
III-VI 2001
Panels SWOT analysis, brainstorming, list of
important research directions, first
prioritisation, voting procedure, discussion,
list of key research topics. cross-cutting
measures. programme implementation and management
VI-IX 2001
Public presentation of interim results, feedback
X 2001
Working group cross-thematic topics, second
prioritisation, aggregation, final list of
priorities of oriented research, final
cross-cutting measures, recommended programme
implementation and method of management
X-XI 2001
Final report to government, public presentation
of final results, dissemination
XII 2001
6
Panels

• Social Transformation
• Human Resources for RD
• Integrated RD
• Regional and International Co-operation in RD
• Management and Implementation of the Programme

• Agriculture and Food
• Environment
• Health and Pharmacy
• Construction, Urbanism and Housing
• Information Society
• Materials
• Discrete Manufacturing
• Machinery and Equipment
• Devices and Instruments
• Chemical Products and Processes
• Transport Systems
• Energy and Raw Materials

13 application sectors (panels) 3
infra-structural panels 1 systemic panel
Panels ? priorities
7
Panelscreation

• one of the most critical points of the project
• typically 15-20 experts
• mixed background research, industry, business,
  government
• chairperson a respected strategic thinker
  assisted by secretary
• members suggested by important stakeholders
  (institutions), individual recommendations,
  co-nomination
• about 300 experts of 1000
• panel members received a modest fee to compensate
  for travels and other expenses plus a reward for
  their homework

8
Panelsrepresentation of sectors
9
Results development Thematic Programs
Important research directions
Sub-programs of ORD
Programs of ORD
Keyresearch directions
Suggested by an inter-panel working group
(multidisciplinarity) Final edition mgmt group
ad hoc experts
Defined by National RD Policy 5 thematic and 3
cross-cutting programs
SWOT analyses in panels Brainstorming Scenarios
Scoring procedure in panels IMPORTANCE vs. FEASIBI
LITY
612
163
19 (90)
5 (19)
IRD
scoring agregation in panels
agregation
IRD
IRD
Sub-program
KRD
Thematic Program
IRD
KRD
x
IRD
KRD
IRD
KRD
Sub-program
IRD
selection
IRD
IRD
IRD
IRD
10
Prioritisation procedure

• Objective select Key Research Directions from
  Important Research Directions (612 in total)
• A modified CSIRO/UK approach
• Performed in panels - 171 of 188 panel members
  voted (91)
• Importance vs. Feasibility analysis
• 35 selection criteria in 5 categories
• About 300,000 data points generated
• On-line (Internet) voting procedure

IMPORTANCE

• economy
• society
• environment sustainable development

FEASIBILITY

• absorption strength of an application sector
• production strength of RD

11
Panel reports

• Main results
• development trends (scenario) in a particular
  application sector in the Czech Republic to the
  year 2010
• detailed SWOT analysis of the application sector
• priority ranked set of suggested key research
  directions (key technologies)
• strategic key technologies (emerging technologies
  and market niches) for the Czech Republic

12
Final remarks (1)

• Project resulted into 19 thematic and 19
  cross-cutting sub-programs, 90 key research
  directions
• Implementation principles and operational rules
  outlined
• Important side-products interviews of 300
  industrial and service companies (a demand side),
  complex analyses of application sectors
• General principles of the National Programme of
  Research (NPR) based on the Project results was
  approved by the Czech Government in May 2002
• Minor modifications in the NPR management still
  expected in the second half of 2002
• Assumed start of the NPR 1 January 2003
• Project provided a guide for distribution of
  about 65 of public spending for research in the
  Czech Republic
• Follow-up projects likely after evaluation of
  the exercise and a design of a Czech foresight
  strategy

13
Final remarks (2)

• a permanent discussion forum established via
  Internet (former panel members )
• technology foresight is one of priorities of the
  future Framework Programme
• a rapid spread of foresight-type activities
  worldwide
• regarding the EU-candidate countries, national
  foresights were completed in Hungary and the
  Czech Republic
• in addition to national exercises, regional or
  even pan-European projects appear more recently
  some in the context of EU enlargement
• for more information www.foresight.cz