ActionOriented Research on Small Arms Injuries: Needs and Challenges

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Action-Oriented Research on Small Arms Injuries
Needs and Challenges
IPPNW-COST Workshop, Helsinki, 8 September 2006

• Keith Krause, Small Arms Survey, Geneva

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The Context

• Good news international attention on armed
  violence is growing, and has never been higher
• Bad news the problem is serious, and few
  effective practical measures have been
  implemented
• Complex issue weapons possession and use is
  embedded in complex social networks
• Multiple stakeholders with multiple agendas

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Small Arms Direct Effects

• More than 300,000 fatal injuries in 2003
• 80-100,000 of these in conflict
• 200-270,000 from homicide, suicide and accident
• Young males at risk

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Small Arms Indirect Effects

• Excess mortality in conflict contexts
• Criminal violence
• Costs to public health system
• Delivery of basic services or humanitarian aid
• Population Displacement
• Economic opportunity costs

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Needs Five Baskets

• Systematic data collection
• Comprehensive picture direct/indirect
  consequences
• Effective costing models
• Information on weapons availability
• Broader socio-economic data

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Data Collection

• Systematic collection of data on deaths and
  injuries, at least in representative sample of
  institutions
• Better catchment area analysis to allow
  extrapolation
• Ongoing surveillance of armed violence
• Creative techniques eg matching crime, public
  health and survey data (capture-recapture, etc.)

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Measuring the Direct and Indirect Impacts of
Armed Violence
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Costing Models
Total costs of violence amount to 12-20 of
Latin Americas GDP Costs of gun violence to
societies are higher than other types of violence
Average medical costs per gunwound and stab,
Brazil and Colombia (2003 PPP USD)
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Weapons Availability and Use

• No simple relationship between availability and
  use
• Which guns, in whose hands, are associated with
  which types of armed violence
• What is the socio-culture context for guns and
  violence

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Socio-economic context of armed violence

• Demographic Age, gender
• Geographic urban vs. peri-urban vs. rural armed
  violence
• Socio-economic income, education, employment
• Temporal time of day, day of week, time of year
• Contagion, opportunity and neighbourhood effects

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Policy/Advocacy Challenges

• Acknowledge the relative importance of the issue,
  depending on the context
• Emphasize the greater costs of armed violence
  relative to other kinds of violence
• Determine the cost-effectiveness of interventions
  
• Slow translation from evidence to action to
  prevent or reduce armed violence