Canadians Expectations for Stephen Harpers Foreign Policy

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Canadians Expectations for Stephen Harpers
Foreign Policy
Canadian Institute of International Affairs
February 2006
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Introduction

• POLLARA is pleased to present to the Canadian
  Institute of International Affairs (CIIA) the
  following report of findings from online
  interviews conducted with a nationally
  representative sample of Canadian adults.
• The purpose of the survey was to determine
  Canadians expectations of newly-elected Prime
  Minister Stephen Harpers performance on specific
  foreign policy issues.
• Should you have any questions about the findings
  of this study, please do not hesitate to contact
  us at 416.921.0090 or 1.888.POLLARA

Roland MerbisAssociate Vice President, Public
AffairsPOLLARArmer_at_pollara.ca Douglas
GooldPresident CEOCanadian Institute of
International Affairs dgoold_at_ciia.org
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Methodology

• In total, 2,317 online interviews were conducted
  with Canadian adults across Canada between
  February 1st and 7th, 2006.
• Respondents were randomly selected from POLLARAs
  online panel of Canadians who have agreed to
  participate in online surveys from time to time.
• At the data processing stage, the data were
  weighted to achieve the correct national
  population distribution based on the latest
  information from Statistics Canada.
• National results are accurate to within 2.0,
  nineteen times out of twenty.

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Expectations of Stephen Harpers Performance
Improving relations with the United States Making
sure our armed forces have the equipment and
training they need Ensuring our peacekeeping
troops are ready for their missions Protecting
Canadas sovereignty Solving the softwood lumber
disputewith the United States Diplomacy or
handling relations with other countries Fighting
terrorism Promoting trade with China Providing
aid to people in the poorest countries around
the world
Note Percentages may not add to 100 due to
rounding.
Q1 As you may know, Stephen Harper was elected
as Canadas new Prime Minister on Monday, January
23rd. For each of the issues listed below, please
indicate whether you think Stephen Harper will do
a better job or a worse job than former Prime
Minister Paul Martin.
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Expectations of Stephen Harpers Performance

• Overall, Canadians are optimistic about their
  expectations of Stephen Harpers performance in
  the various foreign policy issue areas.
• More than one-half of Canadians think Stephen
  Harper will do a better job than Paul Martin on
  improving relations with the United States (57)
  and on making sure our armed forces have the
  equipment and training they need (54).
• Similarly, just under one-half (45) anticipate
  Harper will do better than Martin on ensuring our
  peacekeeping troops are ready for their missions.
• Only on providing aid to people in the poorest
  countries around the world are Canadians more
  likely to think Harper will do a worse (32)
  rather than a better (11) job than Martin.
• A plurality of Canadians anticipate Harpers
  performance on promoting trade with China (41),
  fighting terrorism (40), and solving the
  softwood lumber dispute with the United States
  (39) will be neither better nor worse than
  Martins.

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Expectations of Stephen Harpers Performance,by
Gender and Age

• Men are consistently more likely than women to
  think Stephen Harper will do a better job on the
  various foreign policy issues, with the exception
  of providing aid to the poorest countries around
  the world (11 among both men and women).

who say Stephen Harper will do a better job
than Paul Martin
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Expectations of Stephen Harpers Performance,by
Region
who say Stephen Harper will do a better job
than Paul Martin
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Expectations of Stephen Harpers Performance,by
Region

• Albertans are consistently more likely than other
  Canadians to expect Stephen Harper will do a
  better job in all foreign policy areas than Paul
  Martin.
• Two-thirds of Albertans think Harper will do a
  better job than Martin on improving relations
  with the US (65) and on making sure our armed
  forces have the equipment they need (64).
• Albertans are almost twice as likely as Canadians
  in general to believe Stephen Harper will do a
  better job than Paul Martin on providing aid to
  the poorest countries in the world (20 vs. 11,
  respectively).
• Quebec residents, meanwhile, are less likely than
  other Canadians to think Stephen Harper will do a
  better job on making sure our armed forces have
  the equipment they need (40), on ensuring our
  peacekeeping troops are ready for their missions
  (32), on solving the softwood lumber dispute
  with the U.S. (26), and on promoting trade with
  China (12).

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Most important areas for Stephen Harper to
address as Prime Minister
Improving relations with the United
States Protecting Canadas sovereignty Solving
the softwood lumber disputewith the United
States Making sure our armed forces have the
equipment and training they need Diplomacy or
handling relations with other countries Providing
aid to people in the poorest countries around
the world Fighting terrorism Promoting trade with
China Ensuring our peacekeeping troops are ready
for their missions Dont know
Note Percentages may not add to 100 due to
rounding.
Q2 And which of these areas do you think is most
important for Stephen Harper to address as Prime
Minister?
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Most important areas for Stephen Harper to
address as Prime Minister

• One-fifth of Canadians either believe improving
  relations with the U.S. (18) or protecting
  Canadas sovereignty (18) are the most important
  foreign policy issues for Prime Minister Stephen
  Harper to address.
• One-in-seven (14) Canadians point to the
  softwood lumber dispute with the U.S. as the most
  important issue, while one-in-ten think making
  sure our armed forces have the equipment and
  training they need (11) or diplomacy, or
  handling relations with other countries (10) is
  most important.
• Fighting terrorism (4), promoting trade with
  China (3), and ensuring our peacekeeping troops
  are ready for their missions (3) should be last
  on the list of Stephen Harpers most important
  issues, according to Canadians.

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Most important areas for Stephen Harper to
address as Prime Minister,by Gender and Age
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Most important areas for Stephen Harper to
address as Prime Minister,by Gender and Age

• One-fifth (21) of men think improving relations
  with the U.S. is the most important issue for
  Stephen Harper, while a similar proportion of
  women (19) think protecting Canadas sovereignty
  is most important.
• One-fifth (18) of men between 35 and 54 years
  point to the softwood lumber dispute with the
  U.S. as the most important issue (compared to 14
  of Canadians in total).
• Men (5), particularly those between 18 and 34
  years (7), are more likely than women (2) to
  think promoting trade with China is the most
  important issue.

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Most important areas for Stephen Harper to
address as Prime Minister,by Region
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Most important areas for Stephen Harper to
address as Prime Minister,by Region

• More than one-in-four (27) Quebec residents say
  improving relations with the U.S. is the most
  important issue for Stephen Harper to address as
  Prime Minister (compared to only 10 of British
  Columbians).
• In contrast, British Columbians are most likely
  to think solving the softwood lumber dispute is
  the most important issue (25).
• Approximately one-in-four residents in Atlantic
  Canada (23), in the Prairies (23), and in B.C.
  (22) think protecting Canadas sovereignty is
  most important (compared to only 12 of Quebec
  residents).
• Ontarians are slightly more likely than other
  Canadians to think providing aid to the poorest
  countries around the world is most important (9).

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