Crop Outlook

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Crop Outlook
Ames, Iowa August 22, 2008 Chad
Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets
Specialist chart_at_iastate.edu 515-294-9911
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U.S. Corn Supply and Use
-0.60
6.00
5.40
Source USDA-WAOB, Aug. 2008
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U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
Source USDA-WAOB, Aug. 2008
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World Corn (million metric tons)
Source USDA-WAOB, Aug. 2008
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World Soybean (million metric tons)
Source USDA-WAOB, Aug. 2008
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Source USDA-NASS, Aug. 2008
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Crop Basis Patterns
Source CARD, Iowa State
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Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
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Exchange Rate Ratios (Jan. 2007 1)
Source CME futures
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Corn Soybean Area
Growth rate of 1.5 million acres per year
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Input Costs
Source USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 2008
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Stocks-to-Use Ratios
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Thoughts for 2008

• Looking for a later than average frost
• Wet spring/flooding impacts will likely show up
  in yields
• Markets are primed to move higher on weather
  concerns
• How about the dollar?
• Weaker dollar has helped hold up crop and
  livestock exports
• Strengthening dollar could help lower feed costs
• Most important ag. statistic Crude oil price

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Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond

• Many of the storylines from the past few years
  will continue
• Tight stocks for both corn and soybeans
• The competition for acreage
• Ethanols buildout livestocks adjustment
• Energy price general economy concerns
• Market volatility will remain high
• Link to the energy markets
• More market players with different trading
  objectives
• Given current factors, the 2009 outlook is for
  feed prices to be in the neighborhood of 2008
  prices