In the name of GOD

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In the name of GOD
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Population and Its Norm (Iran Specimen)By
Dr. Mehdi MomeniIslamic Azad University
Najafabad Branch
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With regard to its geographic and climatic
conditions, Iran has some limitations in its
natural resources, notably water and land. The
recent uncontrollable population growth has
exerted great pressure on forests and grassland
leading to their total destruction in some parts.
The present study pivots on this assumption that
Irans population has exceeded its proportional
equilibrium norms.
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• The uncontrollable growth in recent decades and
  the relative poverty of water and soil resources
  have caused intense pressure on these natural
  blessings, leading to ecological imbalances in
  many areas of the country. This problem forced
  the governments to consider population projects.
  Graph 1 shows Irans population in recent
  decades.
• Graph 1. Population Growth in Recent Decades in
  Iran

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• Favorable Population Norms
• French famous demographer, Vebre, gives a more
  precise and clear definition of desirable
  population norm. To him, a desirable population
  norm maintains the best balance between resources
  and the number of people. A standard population,
  in a country or region, is economically balanced
  if it can meet the following conditions.
• 1- All of the people seeking work are employed is
  different social jobs.
• 2- All of the natural resources are exploited
  logically and proportionally without destruction
  or waste.
• 3- The average cost of living permits people to
  use the lowest level of calories needed
  individually.

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• Based on the above three conditions, the present
  state of population in Iran reveals an
  uncontrolled increase. The available official
  statistics show that in 1980, 89.8 percent of
  people of the total groups between 15 to 64 years
  of age were busy and 10.2 percent of people were
  jobless. The number of the unemployed between
  1990 and 2000 has augmented to 14.2 percent in
  1990 to almost 19.1 percent in 2000. At the
  present time, (2006) the unemployment rate, as
  the official figures show, is 13 percent but
  unofficial statistics indicate it is two times as
  much.
• The main reasons for such an increase could be
  the relatively high rate of population growth in
  recent decade, the economic recessions of the
  recent years, and the lack of sufficient
  investments to employ the jobless population.

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• To study how to exploit natural resources without
  causing any destruction, it suffices to examine
  forests and grasslands in Iran. Based on the
  statistical figures released by the F.A.O., the
  surface area of forests in Iran was 18 million
  hectares at the end of the year 1980 (FAO, 1988,
  p. 25). The last figures published in 2002 by the
  Organization for the Protection of the
  Environment estimated the total area of the
  forest to be about 12 million hectares. This
  means 6 million hectares of woods has been
  destroyed just in 2 decades

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• An inevitable result of the destruction of
  grasslands and forests is the recent horrific
  catastrophic floods which are the immediate
  results of mismanagement and lack of attention to
  these valuable natural resources. The frequency
  of flood incidences has been on the rise in the
  past 50 years. In the 1960s the number of floods
  was 195. It increased to 233, 431, and 904 in the
  1970s, 1980s and 1990s, respectively. In the past
  5 years we have witnessed 1108 flood in Iran.
• Graph 2. The Growth of Floods in Recent Decades

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• Conclusion and Suggestions
• Irans geographical situation and its climatic
  conditions, resulting from its place in the world
  desert belt have imposed certain restrictions on
  its resources. Its uncontrolled population growth
  in recent decades has pressurized its natural
  resources leading to extensive destruction. The
  impact of such pressure, direct or indirect, is
  quite remarkable in all economic and social
  projects, especially in agricultural ones. The
  scarcity of water, a direct result of its dry
  climate, dominating all of the country is a basic
  problem. As far as Irans soil is concerned, as a
  result of uncontrolled exploitation of soil, its
  ecosystem hardly reconstructs itself in the arid
  and semi arid regions.

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• to avoid population explosion, it is very
  urgent for the government to use instructional
  and cultural strategies applying warnings,
  propaganda, logical guidelines and the latest
  preventive methods to control population growth.

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• END