Causes of and a WindEnergy Solution to Global Warming

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Causes of and a Wind-Energy Solution to Global
Warming

• Mark Z. Jacobson
• Atmosphere/Energy Program
• Dept. of Civil Environmental Engineering
• Stanford University
• Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center
  Colloquium
• November 8, 2006

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What Causes Global Warming?

• Greenhouse Gases
• Carbon Dioxide 0.9 K
• Methane 0.27 K
• Other greenhouse gases 0.4 K
• Warming particles
• Fossil-fuel soot 0.3 K
• Heat island lt 0.1 K
• Cooling Particles
• Sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic, -1.2 K
• anth. soildust
• Total 0.75-0.8 K
• 2005 - largest increase in CO2 over 250 years -
  2.6 ppmv

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Temperature Change 2006 to 2030
A1B scenario B1 scenario Aerosol and CO2
increase Aerosol dec., CO2 increase
Ozone deaths 12,100 to 36,000/yr 7400 to
22,000/yr
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Global Power Demand and Clean Renewable Supply
TW Global overall power demand 9.4-13.6 Po
tential renewable availability Solar over
land 1700 Land-wind at 80 m and gt 6.9 m/s 72a,
80b Geothermal 9.5b Hydroelectric
6.5b Wave 5b Tidal 3.7b
aArcher and Jacobson, 2005 bStacey and Davis,
2006
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Installed Wind Capacity Worldwide
Country Installed (MW) Germany 18,428 Spain 10,0
27 U.S. 9,149 India 4,430 Denmark 3,122 World 59
,084 at end of 2005 Individual turbine 1
MW --gt 60,000 turbines
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2006 Projected New U.S. Installations
MW Natural gas 10,000 Wind 3,000 Coaloil 400
U.S. EIA (2006)
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U.S. Wind For Electricity and Vehicles
5 MW 126-m diameter turbine in 8.5 m/s annual
winds U.S. Energy Number MT-CO2
MT-CO2 Deaths/yr Source of turbines Reduction Re
duction Reduction to displace per turbine per
turbine Coal (elec.) 117,000 1910 0.0177 0.22 Gas
(elec.) 44,000 455 0.0110 0.07 Oil
(elec.) 7100 110 0.0166 0.12 Oil (onroad
veh.) 134,000 1400 0.0102 0.04 Other
1700 Assumes wind-electricity used to
produce hydrogen for vehicles. Fewer turbines
needed for electric or plug-in-hybrid vehicles.
E85 from corn ethanol results in little CO2
change and death increase M.Z. Jacobson,
Stanford Univ. 10/06
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Wind Power For Electricity
Global electric power demand 1.6-1.8
TW Average wind speed at 80 m height
offshore 8.6 m/s How many 5 MW turbines in 8.5
m/s winds needed to satisfy global electric
demand? 860,000 What of water within 25 km of
worlds 1.6 million km of coast needs to be
shallow/windy? 0.9
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Wind Power For all Energy
Global overall power demand 9.4-13.6 TW How
many turbines needed? 5,000,000 What of water
within 25 km of a coast needed? 4.9 Available
global wind over land/near shore gt 6.9 m/s 72
TW --gtEnough wind for 40x all electric power,
6x all energy
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Water Depths and Transmission Near Californias
Coast
10 km from coast
Dark blue depth 20 m Light blue depth 40 m
25 km from coast
Dvorak et al. (2006)
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Floating Turbines 30-200 m Depth
MIT/NREL
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Mean 80-m Wind Speed in Europe
Archer and Jacobson (2005) www.stanford.edu/group/
efmh/winds/
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Mean 80-m Wind Speed in North America
Archer and Jacobson (2005) www.stanford.edu/group/
efmh/winds/
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U.S. Offshore Wind
June 20, 2003 - CNC A study by Stanford
University reported thatthe greatest reservoir
of previously uncharted wind power in the
continental U.S. may be offshore and onshore
along the southeastern and southern coasts. Ever
since it was released, Texas's General Land
Office has been fielding calls from
developers. October 24, 2005 - USA
Today Texas has sold a lease for an 11,000-acre
tract in the Gulf of Mexico that backers believe
could become the first wind energy farm along the
U.S. coast, state officials announced Monday.
May 11, 2006 - USA Today The nations largest
offshore wind farm will be built off the Padre
Island seashore in South Texas (500 MW)
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Reducing transmission capacity 20 reduces power
9.8 with 1 turbine but only 1.6 with 19 turbines
Firming Wind by Aggregating Farms
19 connected wind farms produce 33 firm power
(222 kW out of 670 kW expected power from 1500 kW
turbines) when operating at 87.5 reliability,
the average for a U.S. coal plant).
Archer and Jacobson (2006)
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Aggregate Wind Power (MW) From 81 ofSpains
Grid Versus Time of Day, Oct. 26, 2005
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Birds and Wind
U.S. bird deaths from 7000 turbines
10,000-40,000/yr (!) U.S. bird deaths from
transmission towers 50 million/yr
(!) Worldwide bird deaths from avian flu 200
million/yr () Extrapolated bird deaths with
860,000 turbines 1.2 million/yr Extrapolated
bird deaths with 5,000,000 turbines 7.1
million/yr Premature U.S. deaths fossil-/biofuel
pollution 50,000-100,000/yr () The effect of
wind turbines on birds will always be trivial
relative to the benefit of reducing
fossil-biofuels on human and animal illness.
(!) Bird Conservancy (April 2006) () San
Jose Mercury News (April 2006) () McCubbin and
Delucchi (1999)
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Ethanol Production
Corn Displace existing land use,
plant/fertilize/water/harvest corn. Transport
corn to ethanol-production plant. Convert
corn Enzymes added to starchwater to form
glucose. Yeast added to ferment glucose to
ethanol, H2O, CO2. Gasoline then added to form
fuel. Corn co-products include gluten meal/feed
and dried distillers grains. Fossil fuel energy
used to produce ethanol. Distribute ethanol to
stations. Use fuel in vehicles. Sugarcane High
er ethanol yield/acre but greater transport,
labor, processing requirements. Sugarcane in
Brazil displaces stored carbon. Switchgrass Sug
ars in cellulose/hemicellulose are locked in
polysachharides - broken down by acid or enzyme
hydrolysis during intensive process. Lignin used
for heat. Only test facilities to date.
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CO2-Equivalent Emissions
Delucchi (2006) U.S. corn ethanol 2 less
CO2-eq. emis. than light-duty gasoline (China
17 India 11 Japan 1, Chile -6)
Switchgrass ethanol projected 44 less
CO2-eq. emis. than LDG - DOE large-scale
cellulosic technology 15 years from
fruition Soy biodiesel 50 more CO2-eq. emis.
than heavy-duty diesel Mostly due to fuel,
feedstock, fertilizer production/cultivation Co
rn ethanol 6 more CO2-eq. emis. than heavy-duty
diesel Patzek (2006) Corn ethanol 20 more
CO2-eq. emis. than gasoline Farrell et al.
(2006) Corn ethanol 10-15 less CO2-eq. emis.
than gas
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Is Ethanol Good For Your Health?
American Lung Association E85 is cleaner. E85
reduces ozone-forming pollution by 20..Ethanol
is less toxic. Gasoline contains compounds like
benzene, toluene, and xylene. Use of E85 reduces
the release of these chemicals Clean Fuels
Network E85 burns cleaner compared to
conventional gasoline by reducing ozone-forming
volatile compounds -Statements based on
back-of-the-envelope estimates. -Lets look at
3-D physical/chemical/radiative/dynamical
computation combined with spatial emissions,
population, and health-effects data
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Emission Differences E85Gas From
Field/Laboratory Data
Percent change Oxides of nitrogen -30 (-59
to 33) Carbon monoxide 5 (-33 to 320) Total
organic gas 22 (38 to 95) Methane 43 (43
to 340) Formaldehyde 60 (7 to
240) Acetaldehyde 2000 (1250 to
4340) 1,3-butadiene -10 (0 to
-13) Benzene -79 (-62 to -85) PM number 0
(100) PM mass 0 (31)
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Los Angeles / U.S. Population Distributions
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Effect in 2020 of E85 vs. Gasoline on Ethanol and
Acetaldehyde
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Effect in 2020 of E85 vs. Gasoline on
Formaldehyde and Methane
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Effect in 2020 of E85 vs. Gasoline on Nitrogen
Dioxide and Toluene
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Effect in 2020 of E85 vs. Gasoline on
1,3-Butadiene and Benzene
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Effect in 2020 of E85 vs. Gasoline on Ozone and
Health
??Pop-weighted ozone 35 ppbv E85 minus
gas 1.33 ppbv ??Ozone deaths/yr 120 ??Ozon
e hospitalizations/yr respiratory
illness 650 ??Ozone-emergency-room visits/yr
for asthma 770 ??Cancer/yr USEPA CUREs - for
carcinogens 0.3 ??Cancer/yr OEHHA CUREs - for
carcinogens -3.5
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2020 U.S. Effects of E85 vs. Gasoline
??Pop-weighted ozone 35 ppbv E85 minus
gas 0.28 ppbv ??Ozone deaths/yr 185 ??Ozon
e hospitalizations/yr respiratory
illness 990 ??Ozone-emergency-room visits/yr
for asthma 1200 ??Cancer/yr USEPA CUREs - for
carcinogens 3 ??Cancer/yr OEHHA CUREs - for
carcinogens -29
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Effects of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles vs.
Gasoline on Health and Climate

• Gasoline case (1999 fleet of onroad vehicles)
• Hybrid case
• Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCV), where H2 from
• Steam-reforming of natural gas
• Wind-electrolysis
• Coal gasification

Jacobson, Colella, Golden (2005)
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Percent Reduction in Total U.S. Anthropogenic
Emission Upon Switching Onroad Vehicles to
Hydrogen from Steam-Reforming of Natural Gas
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Near-Surface Soot Difference (mg/m3)
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Annual Reduction in Illness/Mortality
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Reduction in Health/Climate Costs For Each
Scenario
This is the health cost of gasoline
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Estimated Cost of Hydrogen from Wind

• U.S. (/gal)
• Gas cost Oct. 2, 06 2.31
• Gasexternality 2.60-4.11
• Near-term cost of hydrogen from wind-electrolysis
• Electricity (0.03-0.05/kWhtransmiss) 1.60-3.7
  7/kg-H2
• Electrolyzer (50-95 occupied) 0.39-2.00/kg-H2
• Water 0.005-0.009/kg-H2
• Compressor 0.70-1.34/kg-H2
• Storage 0.31-0.31/kg-H2
• Total 3.01-7.43/kg-H2
• Total per gallon of gasoline displaced 1.12-3.2
  0/gallon
• Near-term cost of H2 from wind may be real cost
  of gasoline

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Summary

• Sufficient wind and solar are available worldwide
  to supply all electric- and nonelectric-energy
  and to solve air pollution/climate problems
  simultaneously.
• One-third of wind can be smoothed by
  interconnecting wind farms. Additional wind can
  be smoothed with or added to solar, hydro,
  geothermal. Remaining intermittent wind can be
  used for HFCVs and electric vehicles.
• HFCVs will reduce air pollution significantly,
  regardless of whether H2 is produced from wind,
  natural gas, or coal gas. Wind-H2 is better for
  climate than natural gas-H2. Hybrids are better
  for climate but worse for air than coal-H2.
• Ethanol enhances ozone pollution over current
  vehicles. Other studies suggest corn ethanol has
  no discernable climate benefit. Cellulosic
  ethanol does not exist at the industrial scale.
  Soy biodiesel produces more equivalent CO2 than
  regular diesel for heavy-duty vehicles.
• CO2 emissions must decrease by 80 to stabilize
  ambient CO2, accounting for growth. Immediate
  conversion to near-zero emission renewables
  needed.
• Diversion of resources to biofuels, which have no
  discernable air quality or climate benefit today
  based on current scientific understanding, at the
  expense of true renewables, which have immediate
  benefit, will cause certain climate and health
  damage as CO2, population, and energy use rise
  further.