Wed 1119: Climate change and policy

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Wed 11/19 Climate change and policy
A climate change murder trial The scientific
approach Arguments and types of fallacies The
climate scientists Climate skeptics and their
claims
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follow-ups
Is OH radical a limiting molecule in the
atmosphere?
A OH radical (OH) is known as the atmospheric
detergent. It oxidizes and hence cleans the
atmosphere of all sorts of pollutants. These
pollutants include greenhouse gases (e.g CH4),
smog agents (e.g. hydrocarbons), and ozone
depleting compounds (e.g. HCFCs and methyl
halides). OH converts them eventually to CO2
(also a greenhouse gas, but not reactive in the
atmosphere). OH is created by sunlight
interacting with water vapor. It has such a
short lifetime (milliseconds), so methods to
measure it directly are still being developed.
Also, it is highly variable. General
measurements of OH in the atmosphere use proxy
chemicals that are produced only by humans and
destroyed only by OH. These give global
estimates. Some studies suggest that OH is
decreasing in the atmosphere, due perhaps to the
massive input of OH-consuming molecules. This
will have ramifications for the lifetime
estimates of all compounds.
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Climate change on trial
What standard must scientists meet to prove
that the climate has changed due to human
forcing? future climate will change due to human
forcing? More likely true than
not? Preponderance of evidence? Beyond a
reasonable doubt? Does the same standard need to
be applied to the industries who assert that
climate change that has occurred is entirely
natural? future climate change will be
beneficial to society? How much needs to be
proven before policy implementation?
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Climate change on trial
How is the climate policy debate like other
issues in which science plays a definitive role
in policy formation Effect of smoking on
individual and public health? Creationism and
evolution taught in public schools? Other
controversial issues in the news? Examples
involving the environment DDT use as a
pesticide, CFCs depleting stratospheric ozone,
sulfur dioxide emissions from smokestacks causing
acid rain
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Role of scientists
Science does not make value judgments. Rather
science provides people and their institutions
with objective information on which to base their
own value judgments. However, current evidence
suggests that human activities are producing
global changes, and this places more pressure on
scientists to participate in the decision making
process. Special interest groups Judge the
desirability of consequences of action or
inaction argue for certain courses of action (or
inaction) as a consequence.
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Scientific method
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Scientific method
hypotheses- a formal generalization of a
principle nuclear-winter hypothesis, faint
young sun hypothesis theories - theory of
relativity, theory of evolution, atomic theory,
Big Bang theory, stratospheric ozone depletion
theory, plate tectonics theory.
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Deductive and inductive reasoning
http//trochim.human.cornell.edu/kb/dedind.htm
deductive reasoning top-down approach more
narrow and concerned with testing or confirming
hypotheses. General to the specific.
inductive reasoning bottom up approach more
open ended and exploratory. Specific to the
general
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Making an argument
An argument is a series of statements used to
persuade someone of something. That "something"
is called the conclusion or main claim. The first
job in analyzing any argument is to identify its
conclusion. One way to identify conclusions, or
other parts of an argument, is to look for their
indicators .
statements that directly support the conclusion.
evidence (or reasons) for accepting the argument
and its conclusions. Often indicated by phrases
because since obviously (beware of
obviously)
Stage 1 premise
Stage 2 inference
premises of argument used to obtain further
propositions. Often denoted by phrases implies
that or therefore.
Final stage of inference affirmed on the basis of
the original premises and the inference from
them. Indicated by phrases therefore, it
follows that we conclude.
Stage 3 conclusion
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Deductive and inductive arguments
deductive argument conclusion follows
necessarily from the premises and inferences.
inductive argument if the premises are true, it
is improbable that the conclusion would be false.

• All men are mortal. (premise)
• Socrates was a man. (premise)
• Socrates was mortal. (conclusion)

1. Socrates was Greek. (premise) 2. Most Greeks
eat fish. (premise) 3. Socrates probably ate
fish. (conclusion)
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Critical thinking
critical thinking online http//www2.sjsu.edu/de
pts/itl/graphics/main.html Fallacies are
technically incorrect arguments. They are often
logical arguments which appear to be correct but
which can be seen to be incorrect when examined
more closely.
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Argumentum ad hominem
Information or suspicions about vested interests,
hidden agendas, predilections, or prejudices may
make you more vigilant in your scrutiny of that
argument--but they should not be allowed to
influence its evaluation. However, in the case
of opinions, expert and otherwise, where you must
rely not on the argument or evidence being
presented but on the judgment of someone else,
personal or background information may be used to
evaluate the ideas expressed.
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Sweeping generalizations
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Appeal to questionable authority
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More fallacies
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Other fallacies
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Then there are scientific arguments
All evidence presented, assessed, and conclusion
drawn. (inductive scientific approach) vs. Conc
lusion drawn. Evidence drawn to support that
conclusion, evidence cited to contradict contrary
conclusion. (deductive argument
approach). Scientific arguments typically entail
attacking one or more premises on scientific
grounds. To weed out documents that distort
results, mix opinions with science, or present
faulty logic, there is a process called peer
review (a quality control certification filter)
that gives us a body of acceptable
representations of rigorous research.
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Who are the parties involved in climate debate?
Countries and international bodies (WMO,
UNEP) Scientists and groups of scientists (IPCC,
NAS, UCS) Environmental groups (many
organizations) Industrial groups/ climate
skeptic organizations
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Climate scientists and groups of scientists

• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• 122 lead authors, 515 contributing authors, 21
  review editors, and 337 expert peer reviewers.
• An increasing body of observations gives a
  collective picture of a warming world and other
  changes in the climate system.
• Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to
  human activities continue to alter the atmosphere
  in ways that are expected to affect the climate.
• Confidence in the ability of models to project
  future climate has increased.
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50 years is
  attributable to human activities.
• Most of the observed warming over the last 50
  years is likely to have been due to the increase
  in greenhouse gases (Third Assessment Report,
  2001).

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Climate scientists and groups of scientists
National Academy of Sciences (NAS) U.S.
scientists that were independent of the IPCC were
called on to conduct a review of climate change
research for President Bush. In June 2001, their
report concluded Greenhouse gases are
accumulating in the Earths atmosphere as a
result of human activities, causing surface air
temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to
rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The
changes observed over the last several decades
are likely mostly due to human activities, but we
cannot rule out that some significant part of
these changes is also a reflection of natural
variability. Human-induced warming and
associated sea level rise are expected to
continue through the 21st century
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Prominent climate skeptics and their organizations
Sallie Baliunas Frederick Seitz Arthur
Robinson S. Fred Singer Idso family Sylvan
Wittwer Western Fuels
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Various approaches of the skeptic organizations
Attack the integrity/motivations of scientists
e.g. scientists want money from the government so
they must be exaggerating their results. Portray
changes as small numbers compared to large
numbers amount of CO2 is small in the
atmosphere, CO2 emissions are small compared to
natural fluxes, warming signal is small compared
to noise) Highlight uncertainties in the
science Models have signficant uncertainties so
we should not trust them at all this observation
has not been reconciled yet, therefore there is
no general picture of global warming. Present
alternatives as likelihoods Sea level wont
rise because Antarcticas ice sheet will grow. A
warmer climate will mean more crop growth and
more food.
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The Global Warming Petition Project
In the spring 1998, the Oregon Institute of
Science and Medicine sent a mass mailing to
thousands of scientists urging them to sign a
petition calling for rejection of Kyoto protocol
on grounds that reduction of carbon dioxide would
harm the environment, hinder the advance of
science and technology, and damage the health and
welfare of mankind. Included were a reprint of
a Wall Street Journal op-ed Science has spoken
Global warming is a myth, a letter from
Frederick Seitz, former National Academy of
Sciences president, and a faux article (above)
formatted to look like a published paper in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
(it was neither peer-reviewed nor published).
The National Academy quickly distanced itself
from the project saying the petition does not
reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the
Academy.
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Wrap up
Given what you know about how the earth
works and whom is saying what, what do you think
about the climate debate? What actions do you
think the U.S. should take, if any? What other
issues need to be considered?