Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

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Determinants and Dynamicsof Micronesian
Emigration

• A Brief Discussion
• for the
• Micronesian Voices in Hawaii Conference
• April 2008
• Ben Graham

2
Outline

• Foreword
• Guiding Questions
• Migration 101 What We Know
• WWII to Independence
• Micronesian Emigration Today
• The Numbers
• Development Intentions
• Issues and Indicators
• Summary
• Looking Forward

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Foreword

• Focus on
• international emigration (movement of persons
  out of one country and into another)
• from the FSM and the RMI into the United States
• Micronesia and Micronesians refer to FSM/RMI
  and their citizens (Palau and other countries in
  region not specifically discussed)

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Guiding Questions

• What are common drivers and characteristics of
  global migration? 
• What do we know specifically about Micronesian
  emigration over time?
• What are key factors driving Micronesians to
  leave their islands today?
• What are main social, economic, and other issues
  we must consider to better understand Micronesian
  emigration?
• Looking forward, what are some important issues
  to consider?

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Migration 101 What We Know

• Humans have always migrated as a way to improve
  their condition
• Micronesians in particular have (over thousands
  of years and out of basic necessity) always been
  highly mobile people
• Today, global migration pressures continue to
  rise, mostly from the developing to the developed
  world
• Every year, millions of emigrants from developing
  countries gain access into developed countries
  via formal and legal processes
• Every year many enter illegally

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Migration 101 What We Know

• US alone sees nearly two million entrants a year,
  half a million of which are illegal
• Earliest economic models for predicting
  emigration (at individual level) identified the
  following as major factors influencing decision
• Earnings at home
• Potential earnings abroad
• Cost of migration

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Migration 101 What We Know

• Over time, and with more research, more variables
  have been added. Common factors on sending
  country side include
• Poverty and hardship
• Unemployment
• Low wages
• High fertility
• Poor health and education services
• Conflict, insecurity, violence
• Governance issues
• Human rights abuse, persecution, discrimination

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Migration 101 What We Know

• On the receiving side, major factors include
• Stock of previous emigrants from home country now
  residing in destination country (the friends and
  relatives effect)
• Demand for labor
• Potential for improved living standard
• Safety and security
• Political and religious freedom
• Family reunification
• Return to ethnic homeland
• Freedom from discrimination and persecution

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Migration 101 What We Know

• In the middle, some factors can enable or deter
  the flow of migration from one country to
  another, namely
• Cost
• Distance
• Immigration policies
• In short, international migration is influenced
  by a wide and complex set of factors on the
  sending side, the receiving side, and in between.
  Emigration theories and models developed over the
  years can only partially explain and predict the
  emigration phenomenon.

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Migration 101 What We Know

• A simplified framework for studying migration

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Migration 101 What We Know

• A few other important characteristics of
  emigration 
• Contrary to popular belief, emigration from poor
  countries typically increases as economic
  development in these countries takes place
• There has been observed a hump-shaped curve
  reflecting the relationship between economic
  development and emigration
• Migration (in general) can have profound effects
  on development, human capital accumulation,
  poverty, and many other issues in both sending
  and receiving countries
• Internal migration (mostly in terms of urban
  migration) and migration between developing
  countries are also growing

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WWII to Independence

• 1950s and 1960s Movement Strategically Denied
• Post WWII years characterized by relatively
  limited movement of people into and out of
  Micronesia
• US administration of TTPI emphasized control and
  security
• US policy of strategic denial in force
• However late 1960s saw entry of regularly
  scheduled airline services (Continental
  Micronesia) and Peace Corps

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WWII to Independence

• 1970s and 1980s Emigration for Education Begins
• Schools built in the 1950s and 1960s began
  graduating students in 1960s and 1970s
• Emigration for education began in the 1970s
• Most emigration out of Micronesia throughout the
  1970s and 1980s was for education

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Micronesian Emigration Today

• The 1986 commencement of the Compacts the
  defining moment in modern Micronesian emigration 
• Whereas education the initial driver, after 1986
  we see a broadening of factors
• Micronesians increasingly citing economic
  opportunity and employment as the key drivers
• While 15.6 percent of post-Compact migrants in
  Hawaii in 1997 cited employment as their primary
  reason in 2003 this increased to 18.2 percent
• Other drivers gaining importance medical and
  subsistence
• Arkansas Marshallese cite employment as 1

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Micronesian Emigration Today
Reason for Migrating (post-Compact migrants),
Hawaii 1997 and 2003
Source Censuses of Micronesians in Hawaii.
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The Numbers

• Emigration has grown rapidly especially since
  beginning of the Compacts
• But not unpredicted
• 1963 Solomon report in the long run ... certain
  inflexible economic limitations of the area and
  the increasing population pressure must
  eventually compel substantial emigration of
  Micronesians.
• 1986 Fran Hezel There is every reason to believe
  that the trickle of emigrants will increase
  considerably in the near future Unless the
  island nations of Micronesia are somehow able to
  turn around their economies and create hundreds
  of new jobs without the assistance of higher
  levels of US aid, there is a good chance that
  more young people will elect to leave home and
  pursue jobs, wherever they are to be found.

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The Numbers

• Neither FSM nor RMI have systems to capture
  emigration data
• Recently discovered US Department of
  Transportation database captures all movements of
  airline passengers
• Analyze air passenger movements into and out of
  Micronesian and US airports (embarkations and
  disembarkations) from the early 1990s to today 
• The following summarizes net embarkations
  (departures over arrivals) of air passengers over
  the 1991 to 2006 period
• The data show very clearly over 16 year period
  thousands more have departed than have arrived

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The Numbers

• FSM saw over 23,000 net embarkations while RMI
  saw over 15,000
• Chuuk 12,423
• Pohnpei 8,490
• Kosrae 1,187
• Yap 991
• While absolute numbers of FSM embarkations
  higher, RMI higher in percentage terms

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Net Embarkations (by air) FSM and RMI 1991 to
2006
Source US Department of Transportation TranStats
Database Note data only for passenger movements
between FSM/RMI and US, FY for FSM and CY for RMI
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Net Embarkations (by air) FSM and RMI 1991 to
2006
Source US Department of Transportation TranStats
Database Note data only for passenger movements
between FSM/RMI and US, FY for FSM and CY for RMI
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The Numbers

• For FSM, 1998, 2003, 2004, and 2006 banner years,
  with more than 2,000 total net embarkations
• For RMI, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2005 and 2006
  over 1,000 net embarkations 
• Next graph shows three year trailing averages for
  net embarkations for the 1993 to 2006 period
• For FSM, since year 2000, average has been on an
  upswing (except for the slight dip in 2006)
• For RMI, average was high in the early 2000s but
  has slowly leveled off

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Net Embarkations (by air) FSM and RMI, 3-Year
Trailing Average 1993 to 2006
Source US Department of Transportation TranStats
Database Note data only for passenger movements
between FSM/RMI and US, FY for FSM and CY for RMI
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Development Intentions

• Generally speaking, development goals,
  intentions, and aspirations fairly clear
• Adopted similar strategies for development,
  prioritization on health and education sectors
• Amended Compacts of Free Association prioritize
  resource allocations to health, education and
  supporting infrastructure
• Pledged to promote sustainable growth by
  supporting and facilitating private sector
  development, efficient and effective basic public
  services, protecting and managing natural
  resources

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Development Intentions

• Both countries have held national economic and
  social summits
• Both countries have formulated economic
  development plans
• Both have signed onto multiple international
  treaties that commit them to achieving specific
  development goals and targets (MDGs)
• But neither the FSM nor the RMI have very clear
  definitions of poverty and hardship and neither
  has articulated poverty alleviation or social
  protection strategy

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Issues and Indicators
Median Age 1999-2000
Source Secretariat of the Pacific Community
PRISM website, census reports
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Issues and Indicators
Population Pyramids for RMI, FSM 1999-2000
Source Secretariat of the Pacific Community
PRISM website, census reports
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Issues and Indicators
Average Household Size 1999-2000
Source census reports
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Issues and Indicators

• Both countries have rapidly growing working age
  populations (2006)
• FSM 60,500 and RMI 28,900
• In the labor force
• FSM 35,400 and RMI 14,800 (historically low
  LFPRs)
• Formally employed
• FSM 16,463 and RMI 9,810 (registered in the
  Social Security databases)
• In some areas, formal employment has contracted
  over time

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Issues and Indicators

• Estimates for those in labor force but not
  registered as being formally employed
• FSM 18,978 and RMI 4,950 persons
• These nearly 24,000 people are either
• Formally employed but not registered
• Informally or self-employed
• Not employed

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Issues and Indicators
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Issues and Indicators
Estimated Labor Force and Formally Employed 1997
to 2006
Source FSM and RMI Economic Reviews FY2006,
author estimates
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Issues and Indicators
National Unemployment Rate 1999-2000
Source census reports
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Issues and Indicators
Average Annual Real Wages, Formally Employed
1995 to 2006
Source FSM Economic Review FY2006
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Issues and Indicators

• As with real wages, over the long run real GDP
  per capita in FSM and RMI has fallen
• FSM real GDP per capita (1998 ) fell from 2,107
  in 1995 to 1,888 in FY2006
• In RMI the decline (in 2000 ) from 2,693 to
  2,454

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Issues and Indicators
Percent of Population Living Below Basic Needs
Poverty Line 1999-2000
Source ADB Hardship in the Pacific series
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Issues and Indicators

• Participatory Poverty Assessments conducted in
  2002 (for RMI) and 2004 (for FSM) by ADB
• Conclusion that while extreme poverty does not
  currently exist, many feel that hardship being
  experienced by many families in both urban and
  rural areas
• Some families find it increasingly difficult to
  earn cash needed to meet living expenses 
• In 2006 RMI Community Survey, 27 percent of
  households indicated overall quality of life has
  gotten worse or much worse in recent years

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Issues and Indicators
Public Expenditure on Education ( of GDP) 2003
Source IMF
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Issues and Indicators
Public Expenditure on Health ( of GDP) 2003
Source IMF
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Issues and Indicators
Annual Average Per Capita Spending for
Education/Health () 2005
Source World Bank
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Issues and Indicators
World Health Organization Global Rankings on
Overall Performance of Health Systems (191
countries) 2000
Source WHO
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Issues and Indicators
Life Expectancy, Male and Female (from latest
censuses)
Source Secretariat of the Pacific Community,
PRISM website
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Issues and Indicators
Retention Rates, Grades 1,8,9,12
Source World Bank and Hezel, F. (2002). Taking
Responsibility for our Schools. PREL.
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Issues and Indicators
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Issues and Indicators
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Issues and Indicators
Is RMI Government (2006) Responsive to Community
Needs?
Source 2006 RMI Community Survey
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Summary

• Young population structures continued high
  growth in working ages, labor force
• Micronesia will have excess labor supply for long
  time, but employment opportunities at home
  growing slowly
• Unemployment and inactivity high, especially
  among youth
• Real incomes have fallen since 1990s, many
  households below basic needs lines
• FSM and RMI spend far more on health/education
  but much room for improvement
• In governance, both countries can make
  improvements

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Looking Forward

• No reason to believe that magnitude of emigration
  will dramatically change any time soon - many
  push, pull, enabling factors at play

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Looking Forward

• PUSH hardship, unemployment, low wages, limited
  education and health services, general lack of
  economic security, boredom all will continue to
  push Micronesians
• PULL plentiful jobs, better wages, education
  opportunities, health services, growing pool of
  friends and relatives, prospects of improved
  living standards, economic security, citizenship,
  more US and other employers directly hiring from
  Micronesia (?) all will continue to pull
  Micronesians
• ENABLERS open door access under Compact, friends
  and relatives covering emigration costs, short
  distances to some destinations (Guam, Honolulu)

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Looking Forward

• Some key questions and issues to also consider
• Is the open access under the Compact permanent?
• What about companies now directly recruiting
  Micronesians from home (covering costs, etc.)?
• What about climate change and sea level rise?
• What about seasonal work schemes (e.g., Guam,
  Taiwan, etc.)?
• What about growth in tourism?
• What about remittances (financial, governance,
  etc.)?
• Other issues?

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Looking Forward

• Both countries have promised to improve human
  development, economies, and quality of life
• Some indicators confirm this is happening but
  most indicators suggest major improvements can be
  made, especially in health and education
  performance and outcomes
• But improving health and education alone will not
  be enough
• Economic policy commitments should translate into
  real economic and employment growth

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Looking Forward

• Most pubic money spent on education and health,
  so should highest priority be to ensure all
  citizens are able to complete high quality
  education? Shouldnt quality of health care
  (preventative, diagnosis) dramatically improve?
• Improving human development, social and economic
  outcomes is the most effective way to ensure all
  Micronesians (wherever they chose to live) are
  able to not only survive but truly succeed in
  their environments

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Looking Forward

• FSM 3rd Economic Summit (2004)
• To achieve moderate growth in incomes and to
  avoid rising out-migration rates need to
  maintain fiscal discipline support essential
  services implement a moderate program of reforms
  to improve the environment for domestic and
  foreign investment reform program would be
  required
• All of these principles (fiscal discipline,
  reform, etc.) should be pursued, however while
  development and rising incomes will improve the
  lives of Micronesians, this may not necessarily
  stem the heavy tide of emigration we have now
  witnessed for over two decades

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KOMMOOL TATA!
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Hawaii specific issues
Source CNN Money website (www.cnnmoney.com)