Groupthink

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Groupthink

• Neil Ferguson

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Irving Janis

• Irving L Janis (26 May 1918 - 15 November 1990)
  was a research psychologist at Yale University
  and a professor emeritus at the University of
  California, Berkeley
• Janis, I. L. (1982) Groupthink. Boston Houghton
  Mifflin.

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Madness is the exception in the individual but
the rule in groups(Nietzsche)
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• Groupthink describes a decision making process,
  where the group members go along with what they
  believe is the consensus. Groupthink causes
  groups to make hasty, irrational decisions, where
  individual doubts are set aside, for fear of
  upsetting the groups balance

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Therapy Meeting
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Groupthink

• Groupthink refers to the deterioration of
• Mental efficiency
• Reality testing
• Moral reasoning
• As a result of in-group pressures to conform and
  maintain the group relationship

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Seven Major Decision Making Defects Resulting
from Groupthink

• The groups discussions are limited to a few
  alternative courses of action (usually two)
  without a survey of the full range of
  alternatives.
• The group does not survey the objectives to be
  fulfilled and the values implicated by the
  choice.
• The group fails to re-examine the course of
  action initially preferred by the majority of
  members from the standpoint of non-obvious risks
  and drawbacks that have not been considered
  originally.
• The members neglect courses of action initially
  evaluated as unsatisfactory by the majority of
  the group. They spend little or no time
  discussing whether there have overlooked
  non-obvious gains or whether there are ways of
  reducing the seemingly prohibitive costs that
  made the alternatives undesirable.
• The members make little or no attempt to obtain
  information from experts who can supply sound
  estimates of losses and gains to be expected from
  alternative courses of action.
• Selective bias is shown in the way the group
  reacts to factual information and relevant
  judgments from experts, the mass media and
  outside critics. The members show interest in
  facts or opinions which support their preferred
  policy and take time to discuss them, but they
  tend to ignore facts and opinions which do not
  support their policy.
• Members spend little time deliberating about how
  the chosen policy might be hindered, sabotaged
  politically or via common accidents that happen
  the best-laid plans.

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Group Morality

• Ferguson, N. Cairns, E. (1996). Political
  Violence and Moral Maturity in Northern Ireland.
  Political Psychology, 17, 4, 713-727.
• Loyalty becomes the highest form of morality.
• Grouthink promotes dehumanization and the
  imposition of harsh measures on the out-group.

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Summary

• The more amiability and espirit de corps among
  the members of a policy making in-group, the
  greater is the danger that independent critical
  thinking will be replaced by groupthink, which is
  likely to result in irrational and dehumanizing
  actions directed against the out-group.

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The Groupthink Model Antecedent Conditions
Symptoms Outcomes
1. Cohesive Group 1. Overestimation Low
2. Structural Faults 2. Closed-
Minds Probability 3. Provocative Social Context
3. Conformity Pressures Of Success
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The Bay of Pigs The Perfect Failure

• April 17, 1961 1,400 Cuba Exiles land at the Bay
  of Pigs
• Day 1 Half the supply ships are sank, the rest
  flee.
• Day 2 20,000 Cuban soldiers surround the exiles
• Day 3 1,200 exile troops are captured.

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A Victory over Yankee Imperialism, Fidel Castro
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The Outcome

• Military disaster
• Civil protests
• Discredited in Latin America
• International community hostility to this illegal
  act
• Led to the building of missile sites plus 5,000
  Soviet troops entering Cuba

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The Planning Failures

• No one will know that the USA was involved they
  will believe the CIA cover story and sceptics
  will be easily refuted.
• The Cuban air force is so ineffective that it can
  be knocked out completely before the invasion
  begins.
• The 1,400 men have high morale and are willing to
  carry out the invasion without any US ground
  troops.
• Castros army is so weak that the small Cuban
  brigade will establish a well-protected beach
  head.
• The invasion by the exiles will touch off
  internal rebellion and topple the regime.
• If the Cuban brigade fails they can retreat to
  the mountains and join the guerrilla units
  holding out against Castro

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Symptoms of Groupthink

• Illusion of Invulnerability
• Illusion of Unanimity
• Suppression of Personal Doubts.
• Self -appointed Mindguards.
• Docility Fostered by Suave Leadership.

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Preventing Groupthink

• The leader or the group should assign the role of
  critical evaluator to each member, encouraging
  the group to give high priority to airing
  objections and doubts. This practice needs to be
  reinforced by the leaders acceptance of
  criticism.
• The leaders in an organisations hierarchy, when
  assigning a policy planning mission to a group,
  should be impartial instead of stating
  preferences and expectations at the outset.. This
  allows the members the opportunity to develop an
  atmosphere of open inquiry and to explore
  impartially a wide range of policy alternatives.
• The organisation should routinely follow the
  administrative practice of setting up several
  independent policy-planning and evaluation groups
  to work on the same policy question, each
  carrying out its deliberations under a different
  leader.