Some Market Trends, Indicators And Signals

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Some Market Trends, Indicators And Signals

• FastTrack User Group Meeting
• Aug 3, 2009 Close
• Gordon Harms

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Four Year Cycle in S P 500, in year 1.
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SP500 Head and Shoulders top did not work.
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NASDAQ Long cycles 2 and 4 Year CyclesSma 50
above Sma 200 on 6/5/09. New Bull.
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M2 Money Supply Rate of Change Unfavorable
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US Dollar Turned down short term.
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Commodity Research Bureau Index Up from low
12/5/08.
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Inflation/Deflation 3 Mo. sma of yearly Rate of
Change

• CPI, May -1.14, down from -0.79 in May
• PPI, Jun -4.34, up from -4.41 in May
• CPI is the Consumer Price Index
• PPI is the Producer Price Index

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Gov. Bonds Interest Rates Up and prices down
from 12/19/08 low.
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STBI Bonds Sell 2/13/09.
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High Yield Bonds Buy 3/16/09.
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Energy Services Buy 7/15/09.
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Emerging Markets Bull from 6/12/09.
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Gold versus Dollar Buy XAU-I 11/14/08.
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Sector Performance From 3/9/09 low. Best and
Worst Seven Sectors Percent Gain.

• Finance 92.5
• New Asia 77.5
• Emerge 73.8
• Realty 72.0
• Cap Micro 71.4
• DJ-20 Trans 71.2
• Rut-I 64.8
• Rut-I 64.8 Ref
• Nasdaq 58.3Ref

• Health 36.5
• Japan 35.1
• Bd-HighYield 30.9
• Precious 29.0
• Bd-USGov 3.08
• Vmfxx 0.16
• ZeroBond -1.08

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Russell 2000 Relative Strength Up from 3/9/09
low.
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NYSE dominance from 8/3/09 tends to be
unfavorable.
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S P 500 Market Momentum is up.
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Nasdaq Bull/Bear Bull from 6/8/09.
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NYSE Breadth S Is turned up 7/14/09.
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NYSE NHNL NH oscillator is high.
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NASDAQ Breadth S Is up from 7/14/09.
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NASDAQ NHNL NH oscillator in high area.
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Up volume trending with price is favorable.
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NASDAQ Divergences Unfavorable for 3 months.
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RUT-I Divergences Unfavorable for 3 months.
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NASDAQ Cycles All oscillators in high area.
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Russell Cycles All oscillators in high area.
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NASDAQ VXN-X Market up from low.
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SP500 VXO-X Market up from low.Linear
regression volume trends contrary to price motion.
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Investing Environment

• Favorable
• Interest rate yield curve is positive.
• Bull market, indexes 50 sma above 200 sma.
• Unfavorable
• World Wide Business Activity in recession.
• Commodity prices UP from low 12/5/08.
• Monetary liquidity, M2 Money Supply.
• Yearly seasonality May through Oct.
• Next 9 month cycle low due Oct 2009.
• NYSE is dominant over NASDAQ from 8/3/09.

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NASDAQ Intermediate Trend Indicators

• Bullish
• Price up from low 3/9/09.
• AD and Vol. Summation Indicators moving up.
• Bearish
• NYSE is dominant over Nasdaq from 8/3/09.
• NH NL oscillator indicates future price drop.
• Divergence oscillators indicate future price
  drop.

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Conclusion

• The weight of the evidence appears to favor the
  probability of the market moving down rather than
  up in the near future.
• A short term dip is probable in a long term up
  move.
• This is NOT a prediction, this is an attempt to
  read the probable next move based on similar
  historical circumstances.

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Idealized Cycle

• Economy is in recession and outlook is uncertain
  due to inflation/deflation potential, sub-prime
  mortgage and finance industry problems.
• Stocks(SP500) are down from Oct. 2007 highs and
• up from 3/9/09 low.
• Commodities are down from all time high and up
  from 12/5/08 low.
• Interest rates on Government Bonds are up from
  12/19/08 low, i.e., bond prices are down.

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Idealized Cycle Economy is in 1 and 2.Stocks in
1, may be 2. Commodities may be 3. Interest
rates in 4.
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Cycle of EmotionsFrom Hays Advisory
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Thoughts

• The test of a first rate intellect is the ability
  to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same
  time and still retain the ability to function.
  
• F. Scott Fitzgerald
• ----------
• The truth you believe and cling to makes you
  unavailable to anything new. The best we can do
  for ourselves is to be open to an unknown future.
• Pema Chodron

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Thats All Folks