Analyse und Entscheidung im Marketing TeilnehmerInfo

1
Analyse und Entscheidung im Marketing
Teilnehmer-Info

• Lernziele und Inhalte
• Stellung im Studium --- MgtSc Lab
• Course / Vorlesung
• individuelle Vorbereitung (Textbuch)
• Präsentationen und Diskussionen
• (PC-)Übungsbeispiele und Gruppenarbeit
• Leistungsbewertung
• 3/4 individuell (Quizzes), 1/4 Gruppenarbeit
• aktueller Punktestand im W W W

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Funktion der Folien

• Nur einige Folien dienen der Unterstützung von
  Erklärungen des Course-Leiters.
• Die meisten Folien liefern Stichworte zur
  Vorbereitung der Reading Assignments (Was ist
  wichtig?) und als roter Faden für die Diskussion
  in den Veranstaltungen.
• Die Studierenden erstellen ihre eigenen Slide
  Shows für die Präsentationen von Gruppenarbeiten.

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Chapter 1 M. Engineering, Models

• Why marketing engineering?
• marketing models
• verbal, graphical, mathematical
• descriptive (predictive), normative, intuitive
• benefits decision options, relative impact of
  variables, group decisions, subjective mental
  models, opportunity costs, precision, analysis
• Das macht mein Statistiker. ...
• (Der sitzt alsbald auf Ihrem Arbeitsplatz!)

4
Chapter 2 Market Response Models

• Why market reponse models?
• inputs, response/output, objectives, black box
  versus Struktur-, aggregiert, disaggregiert
• Bausteine calibration
• simple phenomena P1 P8, stylized facts
• linear Polynom (power series) Potenz
  (fractional root) halblogarithmisch
  exponentiell modified exponential (Sättigungs-)
  logistisch Gompertz - ADBUDG

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Chapter 2 Calibration

• objective subjective calibration
• Y a bX
• sales share a badvertising share
• R2 goodness-of-fit, Bestimmtheitsmaß
• decision calculus gt ADBUDG, judgmental data,
  Lernen durch trial error

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Chapter 2 Objectives

• abhängige Vars, Zielinhalte
• fixed discretionary cost
• short-term, long-term profit
• uncertainty risk aversion
• certainty monetary equivalent Sicherheitsäquiv.
• risk premium Risikoprämieaverage gain-CME
• multiple goals konfliktäre Ziele?
• constraints Nebenbedingungen

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Chapter 2 Multiple Marketing-Mix Elements

• interactions
• full-linear Y a bX1 cX2 dX1X2
• multiplicative Y a X1b X2c
• dynamic effects
• carry-over, delayed response, customer-holdover
  gt customer retention (decay, erosion) rate
• sales in t a b advertising in t ? sales
  in t-1
• sales in t-1 a b advertising in t-1 ?
• sales in t-2

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Chapter 2 Market Share, Competition

• Mengenumsatz Mengen-Marktanteil Marktvolumen
  (Produktklassen-)
• Wertumsatz, Feldanteil Käuferanteil
• Attraktionsmodell Mi Ai / (A1A2An)
• attraction total marketing effort
• Markt Produktklasse gt Marktvolumen,
  Substitutionskonkurrenz und Marktanteil

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Chapter 2 Individual Customer Level

• scanner data, consumer panels, bar-code scanners
  brand choice store and personal data
• purchase probability Pij exp(Ai) / ? j exp(Aj)
• Aj ?k wkbijk
• multinomial logit model (MNL)
• proportional draw assumption
• gt nested logit model

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Chapter 2 Qualitative Models

• shared experience best practice, PIMS and
  ADVISOR
• rule-based representations, Expertensysteme,
  Instrumente der AI
• Modellwahl
• gt visual response modeling, Conglomerate Case
  Excel Solver

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Chapter 5 Strategic Market Analysis I

• corporate strategy gt ...gt marketing objectives
• strategic / instrumental planning
• overcome limitations
• improper analytic focus, functional isolation,
  ignoring synergy, short-run analysis, ignoring
  competition, ignoring interactions, lack of an
  integrated view, ...

12
Chapter 5 Strategic Market Analysis II

• market demand trend analysis - forecasting
  methods
• judgmental, experts
• market product analysis demoskopische ...
• time-series analysis, univariate
• causal, multivariate
• which? when?

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Chapter 5 Strategic Market Analysis III

• The product life cycle concept
• which variable(s) to observe
• stages
• descriptive? predictive, a forecasting tool?
• consequences
• scale effects
• experience effects, the learning curve
• marketing consequences?

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Not in the textbook Discriminant analysis I

• Discriminant value for case i zi b0 b1 x1i
  ... bn xni
• Mean of zi in group 1 Z1
• Mean of zi in group 2 Z2
• Std.dev. sZ1 und sZ2
• Optimization criterion
• (Z1 - Z2 )2
• _______________ ? Max!
• sZ12 sZ2 2
• _

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Not in the textbook Discriminant analysis II

• Separate the groups at Zkrit
• Z1 Z2
• Zkrit
• 2
• Zi lt Zkrit gt group 1
• Zi gt Zkrit gt group 2

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Not in the textbook Discriminant analysis III

• Test with the classification matrix
• (Vacation trip made during the past 12 months
  yes/no)
• forecasted behavior
• no yes
• no 1496 (66) 786 (34) 2282
• observed
• behavior yes 688 (30) 1622 (70) 2310
• --------------------------------------------------
  ------------------------
• 2184 2408 4592
• correct (14961622)/45.92 68

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Not in the textbook Discriminant analysis IV

• Compare with a random classification
• e.g. 30 travelers, 70 non-, p .30
• maximal chance criterion Cmax
• max(p, 1-p) .70
• proportional chance Cpro
• p2 (1-p)2 .58

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Chapter 6 Models for Strategic Marketing
Decision Making

• Market entry / exit decisions original vs.
  reformulated products
• a decision tree for problem structuring
• the PIMS project, ROI, ROS, PAR, LIM and other
  mysteries
• profit influences

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Chapter 3 Segmentation Targeting I

• m. segment, m. segmentation, target market
• segm. theory practice -- the STP approach
• segmentation criteria ...
• a priori versus a posteriori segmentation
• praktische Durchführung (Phasen 1-5)
• Beispiele benefit segmentation, PBMS
• Segmentierungsstrategien

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Ergänzung I zu Segmentation Targeting
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Ergänzung II zu Segmentation

• A-priori
• marketing objective defines the segments (e.g.
  loyal customers)
• search for correlates (crosstabulation,
  AID/CHAID, DA, ...)

• A-posteriori
• heterogeneity hypothesis (e.g. regarding benefits
  sought)
• create the segments (cluster analysis,
  neurocomputing)
• search for correlates (same as in a-priori s.)

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Ergänzung III zu Segmentation Analytical tools

• A-priori
• contingency tables, crosstabs, mult- response
• Automatic Interaction Detector (AID/CHAID)
• discriminant analysis (DA)

• A-posteriori
• partitioning clustering (e.g. K-means)
• vector quantization (SOM, TRN/DTRN)
• testing with DA
• hierarchical clustering

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Ergänzung IV zu Segmentation Die neue
A-posteriori S. philosophy

• There are naturally predetermined segments.
• The marketing analyst should identify them.
• The manager should assess them in terms of
  potential target groups.

• The marketing manager does not find segments, he
  creates them.
• Creating segments and customer types becomes a
  means of competitive strategy.

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Ergänzung V zu Segmentation Neurocomputing-Meth
oden I
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Ergänzung VI Neurocomputing-Methoden II
Competitive (un)learning in the TRN
data point
prototype
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Chapter 4 Positioning I

• perceptual maps

Ease Comfort /
MyBrand
NewBrand
Scope, Functionality /
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Chapter 4 Positioning II

• perceptual maps extensions

Ease Comfort /
IdealPointSegment1
MyBrand
IdealPointSegment2
NewBrand
Scope, Functionality /
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Chapter 4 Positioning III

• perceptual maps more extensions

Ease Comfort /
IP1
IP2
Scope, Functionality /
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Chapter 4 Positioning IV
1 2 j m
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Chapter 4 Positioning V
challenging
adventure

o




o






exciting






o


o
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Chapter 7 NPD-New Product Decisions I

• core / tangible / augmented product
• stages in the NPD process
• NPD models
• identifying opportunities
• generating ideas
• evaluating ideas
• product design
• NP forecasting and testing

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Chapter 7 NPD-New Product Decisions II

• principles of conjoint analysis
• overall preference gt part-worths (utility
  values)
• product bundle of attributes not directly
  evaluated
• advantages ?
• limitations ?
• example
• levels nr of attributes combinations 34 x 4
  324
• experimental design gt selected combinations
• part-worths gt ideal products

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Ergänzung I zu Conjoint-Analyse
Anwendungsbeispiel Euro pricing I

• capture consumer heterogeneity with
• explanatory variables and a random coefficient
  model
• Euro confidence and
• Euro scepticism (reversed scale)
• mitigate the negative effect of bothersome
  conversion on the factors currency and price

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Ergänzung II zu Conjoint-AnalyseEuro pricing
II
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Chapter 9 Salesforce Channel Decisions I

• personal selling
• selective marketing effort, customized, people,
  costs
• functions performed by salespeople ...
• managing the salesforce
• organization own vs. commission-based
• sizing / allocation intuitive (welche ?) vs.
  model-based procedures
• control compensation schemes

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Chapter 9 Salesforce Channel Decisions II

• strategy direkt vs. indirekt
• location Filialen, Franchise-, Absatzmittler ...
  macro micro (GIS-geoinformation systems)
• logistics physical distribution, inventory
• gravity model
• pij Vij / ?N Vin , Vij S?j / D?in
• A (M1 M2) / D2

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Chapter 9 Salesforce Channel Decisions III

• gravity model ... steps (SCAN/US)
• geographic area gt zones
• data on competing stores
• store-zone distances
• calibration, sales potential gt shares
• locations for new store choice
• limitations IIA assumption, mode of access, ...
  interactive marketing (online shopping)

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Chapter 10 Price Sales Promotion Decisions

• warum spielt Preis in allen Termen eine Rolle?
• profit (unit price unit cost) x quantity sold
• ? (?q/?p) (p/q), lt 1.0, gt 1.0 ?
• cross-price elasticities show ...
• TR pq gt ?TR/?q p q (?p/?q)
• Punkt-, Iso-Elastizitäten q a bp, q ap-b
• limitations ... Kundeninterpretation von
  Preisänderungen ... (Beispiele)

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Chapter 10 Pricing in Practice

• cost-oriented
• Kritik, konstante Grenzkosten, konstante ?
• demand-oriented
• Kritik, value-in-use-Konzept
• reservation price, Preisbereitschaftsmessung
• konkurrenz-orientierte
• web economy auctions and bidding
• yield management

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Chapter 10 Price Discrimination

• heterogene, segmentierte Märket gt consumer
  surplus
• praktische Schwierigkeiten gt Preisdifferenzierung
  sanlässe
• Beispiele
• geographische Preisdifferenzierung
• grey markets, Euro-Einführung, online shopping
• zeitliche Preisdifferenzierung, Abschöpfungs-

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Chapter 10 Sales Promotions I

• temporary advertised price reductions
• Arten, Adressaten Komplementärwirkung
• communication incentive invitation
• typische Marketingziele ...
• (cross-)couponing, cross-merchandising,
• sampling, manufacturer price-off, premium offers,
  in-store displays, feature adv., deals
• Beispiele ...

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Chapter 10 Sales Promotions II

• Empfehlungen
• sales impact
• large share brands
• Abnutzung
• asymmetrische cross-promotion
• store traffic, Frequenzen
• Komplementär- und Substitutivprodukte
• Wirkungsmessprobleme

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Chapter 8 Advertising Communications Decisions
I

• communications mix
• advertising, PR, SP, PS, DM, HR
• Querverbindungen im Marketing Mix
• Entscheidungen innerhalb der Werbeplanung
• welche? Chart und Terminologie
• Interdependenzen
• Werbewirkungen
• response shape, dynamics, interaction

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Chapter 8 Advertising Communications Decisions
II

• Werbedosierung (frequency)
• Lern- und Vergessenskurven (decay)
• Wirkungsschwellen, Sättigung, Reaktanz
• Werbegestaltung (copy effects)
• Gestaltungselemente
• Wirkungsmaße (recognition, recall, ...)
• Pretesting, copy tests, Werbelabor
• psychotechnische Geräte ...

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Chapter 8 Advertising Communications Decisions
III

• advertising budget decisions
• Budgetierungsregeln
• all you can afford
• percentage of sales
• competitive parity
• objective and task
• model-based gt z.B. Adbudg Optimierung

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Chapter 8 Advertising Communications Decisions
IV

• Werbeträger-/Mediaplanung (media decisions)
• Kennzahlen Kontakttsumme (gross rating points),
  (Netto-) Reichweite, mittl. Kontaktdosis,
  impact
• kombinierte kumulierte Reichweite
• 1000-Leser-, 1000-Kontakte-Preis
• Media-Analyse, Streuplanevaluierung,
  Mediaoptimierungsmodelle
• Botschaftsplanung gt Stufenmodell

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Chapter 8 Advertising Communications Decisions
V

• creative quality, Werbemittelanalyse
• Starch-Maße noted, seen-associated, read- most
• Werbetextanalyse
• advertising design
• Expertensysteme (ADCAD) Regelbasis,
  Inferenzmaschine limitations
• Briefing für Kreative Punktation