Modeling of the

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CS 785, Fall 2001
Modeling of the Problem Solving Process
(Part 2 of 2)
Gheorghe Tecuci tecuci_at_gmu.eduhttp//lalab.gmu.e
du/
Learning Agents LaboratoryDepartment of
Computer Science George Mason University
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Critiquing through task reduction
Critiquing as an expertise task
The Course of Action critiquing challenge problem
The Course of Action critiquing agent
Modeling the critiquing process
Demonstration of the Disciple-COA agent
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Critiquing as an expertise task
Critiquing means expressing judgments about
something according to certain standards.
Example Identifying the strengths and
weaknesses of a military course of action with
respect to the principles of war and the tenets
of army operations. For instance, assess a
particular course of action with respect to the
Principle of Surprise.
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Course of Action critiquing HPKB challenge
problem
Identifies strengths and weaknesses in a military
course of action based on the principles of war
and tenets of army operations. Supports ground
combat planning by the commander and staff -
identifies key combat tasks assigned to units -
analyzes ability of units to accomplish their
tasks - evaluates contributions of these tasks
to the accomplishment of the mission.
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The Course of Action critiquing agent
Source Challenge problem for the DARPAs High
Performance Knowledge Base (HPKB) program
(FY97-99).
Background A military course of action (COA) is
a preliminary outline of a plan for how a
military unit might attempt to accomplish a
mission. After receiving orders to plan for a
mission, a commander and staff analyze the
mission, conceive and evaluate potential COAs,
select a COA, and prepare a detailed plans to
accomplish the mission based on the selected COA.
The general practice is for the staff to generate
several COAs for a mission, and then to make a
comparison of those COAs based on many factors
including the situation, the commanders
guidance, the principles of war, and the tenets
of army operations. The commander makes the final
decision on which COA will be used to generate
his or her plan based on the recommendations of
the staff and his or her own experience with the
same factors considered by the staff.
Agent task Identify strengths and weaknesses in
a COA, based on the principles of war and the
tenets of army operations.
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COA411 the sketch
Graphical depiction of a preliminary plan. It
includes enough of the high level structure and
maneuver aspects of the plan to show how the
actions of each unit fit together to accomplish
the overall purpose.
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COA411 the statement
Explains what the units will do to accomplish the
assigned mission.
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COA411 the statement (cont.)
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COA critiquing task
Answer each of the following questions
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The Principle of Mass (from FM100-5)
Mass the effects of overwhelming combat power at
the decisive place and time. Synchronizing all
the elements of combat power where they will have
decisive effect on an enemy force in a short
period of time is to achieve mass. To mass is to
hit the enemy with a closed fist, not poke at him
with fingers of an open hand. Mass must also be
sustained so the effects have staying power.
Thus, mass seeks to smash the enemy, not sting
him. This results from the proper combination of
combat power with the proper application of other
principles of war. Massing effects, rather than
concentrating forces, can enable numerically
inferior forces to achieve decisive results,
while limiting exposure to enemy fire.
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Sample critiques generated by the COA agent
To what extent does this course of
action conform to the Principle of Mass?
There is a major strength in COA411 with respect
to mass because BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 is the
MAIN-EFFORT1 and it acts on the decisive point of
the COA (RED-MECH-COMPANY4) with a force ratio of
10.6, which exceeds a recommended force ratio of
3.0. Additionally, the main effort is assisted
by supporting action SUPPRESS-MILITARY-TASK1
which also acts on the decisive point. This is
good evidence of the allocation of significantly
more than minimum combat power required at the
decisive point and is indicative of the proper
application of the principle of mass.
There is a strength in COA411 with respect to
mass because BLUE-MECH-COMPANY8 is a
COMPANY-UNIT-DESIGNATION level maneuver unit
assigned to be the reserve. This is considered a
strong reserve for a BRIGADE-UNIT-DESIGNATION
level COA and would be available to continue the
operation or exploit success.
There is a strength in COA411 with respect to
mass because BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 is the main effort
of the COA and it has been allocated 33 of
available combat power but this is considered
just a medium level weighting of the main effort.

Reference FM 100-5 pg 2-4, KF 113.1, KF 113.2,
KF 113.3, KF 113.4, KF 113.5 - To mass is to
synchronize the effects of all elements of combat
power at the proper point and time to achieve
decisive results. Observance of the Principle of
Mass may be evidenced by allocation to the main
effort of significantly greater combat power than
the minimum required throughout its mission,
accounting for expected losses. Mass is evidenced
by the allocation of significantly more than
minimum combat power required at the decisive
point.
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The Principle of Surprise (from FM100-5)
Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a
manner for which he is unprepared. Surprise can
decisively shift the balance of combat power. By
seeking surprise, forces can achieve success well
out of proportion to the effort expended. Rapid
advances in surveillance technology and mass
communication make it increasingly difficult to
mask or cloak large-scale marshaling or movement
of personnel and equipment. The enemy need not be
taken completely by surprise but only become
aware too late to react effectively. Factors
contributing to surprise include speed, effective
intelligence, deception, application of
unexpected combat power, operations security
(OPSEC), and variations in tactics and methods of
operation. Surprise can be in tempo, size of
force, direction or location of main effort, and
timing. Deception can aid the probability of
achieving surprise.
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Sample critique generated by the COA agent
To what extent does this course of
action conform to the Principle of Surprise?
"There is a strength with respect to surprise in
COA411 because the enemy is unlikely to be
prepared for the heavy concentration of combat
power applied by BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 as MAIN-EFFORT1
in action PENETRATE1. In this action,
MAIN-EFFORT1 is applying a force ratio of 10.6
which is more than double the recommended force
ratio 3.0. Applying this much combat power for
this action is likely to surprise the enemy and
is indicative of the proper application of the
principle of surprise."

Reference FM 100-5 pg 2-5, KF 118.1, KF 118.2,
KF 118.3 - Surprise is achieved by
striking/engaging the enemy in a time, place or
manner for which he is unprepared. The enemy can
be surprised by the tempo of the operation, the
size of the force, the direction or location of
the main effort, and timing. Factors contributing
to surprise include speed, effective
intelligence, deception, application of
unexpected combat power, operations security, and
variations in tactics and methods of operation.
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Modeling the critiquing process
Modeling the critiquing process overview
Modeling the process of critiquing military
courses of action with respect to the Principle
of Surprise
Modeling the process of critiquing military
courses of action with respect to the Principle
of Offensive
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Modeling the critiquing process overview
To assess a course of action with respect to a
specific principle or tenet one needs a certain
amount of information about that course of
action, information related to that principle or
tenet. This information is obtained by asking a
series of questions. The answer to each
question allows one to reduce the current
assessment task to a more specific and simpler
one. This process continues until one has
enough information to recognize a weakness or a
strength.

T1
S1
Q1

A1n
A11
S1n
S11
T1n
T11a
Q11a

A11am

A11a1
S11am
S11a1
Each leaf is a solution (a weakness or a
strength). The solution corresponding to a node
is the union of the solutions of its immediate
children
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The Principle of Surprise (from FM100-5)
Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a
manner for which he is unprepared. Surprise can
decisively shift the balance of combat power. By
seeking surprise, forces can achieve success well
out of proportion to the effort expended. Rapid
advances in surveillance technology and mass
communication make it increasingly difficult to
mask or cloak large-scale marshaling or movement
of personnel and equipment. The enemy need not be
taken completely by surprise but only become
aware too late to react effectively. Factors
contributing to surprise include speed, effective
intelligence, deception, application of
unexpected combat power, operations security
(OPSEC), and variations in tactics and methods of
operation. Surprise can be in tempo, size of
force, direction or location of main effort, and
timing. Deception can aid the probability of
achieving surprise.
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coa411-surprise
Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa4
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Does the COA assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider the presence of surprise factors
I consider enemy reconnaissance
Assess surprise wrt surprise factors for-coa
coa411
Assess surprise wrt countering enemy
reconnaissance for-coa coa411
I consider the application of surprising levels
of combat power
I consider the presence of deception actions
Assess surprise wrt deception actions for-coa coa
411
Assess surprise wrt force ratio for-coa coa411
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coa411-surprise
Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa4
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Does the COA assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider the presence of surprise actions
Assess surprise wrt surprise actions for-coa
coa411
Does the COA include surprise actions?
Yes, ...
No, the COA does not have any surprise action
Report weakness in surprise because there are no
surprise actions assigned for-coa
coa411 for-nbr-actions 0 with-importance high
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coa411-surprise
Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa4
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Does the COA assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider the application of surprising levels
of combat power
Assess surprise wrt force ratio for-coa coa411
Do the main or supporting efforts use a
surprising amount of combat power ?
Main effort is applying a force ratio of 10.6 for
penetrate1 which is more than twice the
recommended force ratio.
NO....
Report strength in surprise because of using
overwhelming combat power for-coa coa411 for-u
nit blue-task-force1 for-effort main-effort1 for
-action penetrate1 for-force-ratio 10.6 for-surp
rise-force-ratio 6.0 with-importance "high"
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coa411-surprise
Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa4
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Does the COA assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider the presence of deception actions
Assess surprise wrt deception actions for-coa
coa411
Are deception actions assigned in the COA?
No, there are no deception actions
Yes, ...
Report weakness in surprise because there are no
deception actions assigned for-coa
coa411 for-nbr-actions 0 with-importance
medium
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coa411-surprise
Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa4
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Does the COA assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider enemy reconnaissance
Assess surprise wrt countering enemy
reconnaissance for-coa coa411
Is an enemy reconnaissance unit present?
Yes, RED-CSOP1 which is performing the
reconnaissance action SCREEN1
No, ...
Assess surprise when enemy recon is
present for-coa coa411 for-unit
red-csop1 for-recon-action screen1
Is the enemy reconnaissance unit destroyed?
No, ...
Yes, RED-CSOP1 is destroyed by DESTROY1
Report strength in surprise because of countering
of enemy recon for-coa coa411 for-unit
red-csop1 for-recon-action screen1 for-action
destroy1 with-importance high
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Modeling based on COA421
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coa421-surprise
Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa4
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Does the COA assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider enemy reconnaissance
Assess surprise wrt countering enemy
reconnaissance for-coa coa421
Is an enemy reconnaissance unit present?
Yes, RED-CSOP1 which is performing the
reconnaissance action SCREEN1
No, ...
Assess surprise when enemy recon is
present for-coa coa421 for-unit
red-csop1 for-recon-action screen1
Is the enemy reconnaissance unit destroyed?
No, RED-CSOP1 is not destroyed
Yes .
Report weakness in surprise because enemy recon
is not countered for-coa coa421 for-unit
red-csop1 for-recon-action screen1 with-import
ance high
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Modeling based on COA51
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COA 5.1
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coa51-surprise
Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa5
1
Does the COA assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider the presence of deception actions
Assess surprise wrt deception actions for-coa
coa51
Are deception actions assigned in the COA?
No, there are no deception actions
Yes, there is 1 deception action
Report strength in surprise because there are
deception actions assigned for-coa
coa51 for-nbr-actions 1 with-importance medium
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coa51-surprise
Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa5
1
Does the COA assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider the presence of surprise factors
Assess surprise wrt the presence of surprise
factors for-coa coa51
Is there surprise timing or surprise actions
present in the COA?
I am considering the presence of surprise actions
I am considering surprise timing of operations
Assess surprise wrt surprise timing
for-coa coa51
Is there surprise timing for this operation?
Yes, .
No
Report weakness in surprise because no surprise
timing for-coa coa51 for-nbr-actions 1 with-imp
ortance high
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The Principle of Offensive (from FM100-5)
Seize, retain, and exploit the initiative.
Offensive action is the most effective and
decisive way to attain a clearly defined common
objective. Offensive operations are the means by
which a military force seizes and holds the
initiative while maintaining freedom of action
and achieving decisive results. This is
fundamentally true across all levels of war.
Commanders adopt the defensive only as a
temporary expedient and must seek every
opportunity to seize the initiative. An offensive
spirit must therefore be inherent in the conduct
of all defensive operations. The side that
retains the initiative through offensive action
forces the enemy to react rather than act.
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coa411-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa411
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the number of offensive actions
I consider the presence of end statements
Assess offensive wrt the number of offensive
actions for-coa coa411
Assess offensive wrt the presence of end
statements for-coa coa411
I consider the presence of special offensive
actions such as penetrations
I consider the presence of independent actions
Assess offensive wrt the presence of special
offensive actions for-coa coa411
Assess offensive wrt the presence of independent
actions for-coa coa411
I consider the presence of sequential actions
I consider the presence of follow on forces
Assess offensive wrt the presence of follow on
forces for-coa coa411
Assess offensive wrt the presence of sequential
actions for-coa coa411
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coa411-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa411
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the number of offensive actions
Assess offensive wrt the number of offensive
actions for-coa coa411
Does the COA include offensive actions?
Yes, the COA has 6 offensive actions
No, ...
Assess offensive when there are offensive
actions for-coa coa411 for-nbr-offensive-actions
6
Is the main effort assigned offensive actions?
Yes, the main effort is assigned 1 offensive
action
No, ...
Assess offensive when main effort has offensive
actions for-coa coa411 for-nbr-offensive-acti
ons 6 for-nbr-main-effort-offensive-actions 1
Are the supporting efforts assigned offensive
actions?
Yes, the supporting efforts are assigned 4
offensive actions
No, ...
2
Report strength in offensive because both the
main and the supporting efforts have offensive
actions for-coa coa411 for-nbr-offensive-acti
ons 6 for-nbr-main-effort-offensive-actions
1 for-nbr-supporting-efforts-offensive-actions
4 with-importance ...
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coa411-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa411
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the presence of special offensive
actions such as penetrations
Assess offensive wrt the presence of special
offensive actions for-coa coa411
Does the COA include special offensive actions,
such as penetrations?
I consider the presence of penetrations
Assess offensive wrt the presence of
penetrations for-coa coa411
Does the COA include a penetration?
Yes, the COA includes penetrate1, which is a
penetration
Report strength in offensive because of presence
of penetration for-coa coa411 with-importance ..
.
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coa421-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa421
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the presence of follow on forces
Assess offensive wrt the presence of follow on
forces for-coa coa421
Are follow on forces available to retain and
exploit the initiative ?
Yes, blue-mech-battalion1 follows and supports
the main effort
Report strength in offensive because there are
maneuver forces to follow and support main
effort for-coa coa421 for-unit blue-mech-battali
on1 for-task follow-and-support1 with-importance
...
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coa421-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa421
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the presence of follow on forces
Assess offensive wrt the presence of follow on
forces for-coa coa421
Are follow on forces available to retain and
exploit the initiative ?
Yes, blue-mech-battalion1 follows and supports
the main effort
Report strength in offensive because there are
maneuver forces to follow and support main
effort for-coa coa421 for-unit blue-mech-battali
on1 for-task follow-and-support1 with-importance
...
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coa421-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa421
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the presence of end statements
Assess offensive wrt the presence of end
statements for-coa coa421
Does the COA include an end state statement to
provide units guidance on where and when they can
take initiative?
No
Report weakness in offensive because there are no
end statements for-coa coa421 with-importance
...
36
coa51-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa51
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the number of offensive actions
Assess offensive wrt the number of offensive
actions for-coa coa51
Does the COA include offensive actions?
Yes, ...
No
Report weakness in offensive because no offensive
actions for-coa coa51 for-nbr-offensive-actio
ns 0 with-importance ...
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coa51-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa51
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the number of offensive actions
Assess offensive wrt the number of offensive
actions for-coa coa51
Does the COA include offensive actions?
Yes, ...
No
Report weakness in offensive because no offensive
actions for-coa coa51 for-nbr-offensive-actio
ns 0 with-importance ...
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coa51-offensive
Assess COA with respect to Principle of
Offensive for-coa coa51
Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive
- gaining, retaining and exploiting the
initiative?
I consider the presence of independent actions
Assess offensive wrt the presence of independent
actions for-coa coa51
Does the COA include independent actions?
Yes, the COA has 2 independent action
Report strength in offensive because of presence
of independent actions for-coa coa51 for-nbr-act
ions 2 with-importance ...
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Demonstration of the Disciple-COA agent
DiscipleCOADemo
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Identification through task reduction
Identification as an expertise task
The Center of Gravity concept
The Center of Gravity identification agent
Modeling the identification process
Demonstration of the Disciple-CoG agent
47
Identification as an expertise task
Identification means recognizing an entity as
being a certain thing.
Example Identification of the strategic center
of gravity candidates in military conflicts.
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The Center of Gravity (CoG) concept
The center of gravity of an entity (state,
alliance, coalition, or group) is the foundation
of capability, the hub of all power and movement,
upon which everything depends, the point against
which all the energies should be directed. Carl
Von Clausewitz, On War, 1832. If a combatant
eliminates or influences the enemys strategic
center of gravity, then the enemy will lose
control of its power and resources and will
eventually fall to defeat. If the combatant fails
to adequately protect his own strategic center of
gravity, he invites disaster.
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The center of gravity identification agent
Agent taskIdentify strategic Center of Gravity
(CoG) candidates for a military
scenario. InputA description of a military
scenario, such as the World War II invasion of
Sicily by the Anglo allies, in 1943. Output Strat
egic center of gravity candidates for each
opposing force and its members (e.g. Anglo
allies, US, Britain).The agent will also provide
a detailed description of its lines of reasoning.
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The Sicily 1943 Scenario
The Allied decision to invade Sicily following
the successful operation in North Africa was a
critical element of World War II (WWII). The
commitment of such a large force to continue
operations in the Mediterranean theater meant
that the cross-channel invasion of Europe would
be delayed. American military leaders strongly
favored the cross-channel invasion at the
earliest possible opportunity. This meant giving
this invasion force first priority for troops,
shipping and equipment. The British favored an
indirect approach that would see a major effort
continue in the Mediterranean. The Allies
settled on the Mediterranean approach at the
Casablanca conference in January 1943 and began
planning for Operation Husky, the invasion of
Sicily. Situated ninety miles off the north
coast of Africa and two and one-half miles from
the toe of the Italian peninsula, Sicily was both
a natural bridge between Africa and Europe and a
barrier dividing the Mediterranean Sea. It was
an unsinkable air and naval fortress from which
Axis forces interdicted Allied sea lines of
communications through the Mediterranean.
Operation Husky was the largest amphibious
operation ever conducted up to that time. The
operation encountered numerous difficulties and
gained the Allies valuable experience that would
be critical for the successful invasion of
Europe. Operation Husky was the last U.S. and
British combined operation of WWII in which
roughly equal numbers of British and US ground
forces would be committed. British ground forces
would initially be the main effort of the
operation but by its conclusion US ground forces
would have the lead. After Sicily, US forces
would constitute the largest element of Allied
combat power for the remainder of the war. The
German defense of Sicily is one of the finest
examples of defensive warfare in modern history.
The bulk of the Axis forces available for the
campaign were Italian, but despite competent
leadership and decision-making at the General
Officer level, the Italian forces were mostly
ineffective. Greatly outnumbered and out-gunned,
the Germans effectively delayed the allied
advance for weeks, allowing German units to
reinforce Italy. The campaign ended with a
brilliant evacuation of German forces and
equipment from Sicily despite Allied air and
naval superiority.
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Strategic COG candidates identified by the agent
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Sicily_1943 scenario

The will of the Anglo_allies_1943 is a strategic
COG candidatefor Anglo_allies_1943 which is an
equal partner alliance
The cooperation between the subgroups of
Allied_forces_operations_Huskywhich conduct
combined and joint operations is a strategic
COG candidatefor Anglo_allies_1943
President_Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
for US_1943 whichis a representative democracy
and a member of Anglo_allies_1943
The will of the people of US_1943 is a
strategic COG candidate for US_1943which is a
representative democracy and a member of
Anglo_allies_1943
Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 is a strategic COG
candidatefor US_1943 which is a member of
Anglo_allies_1943

Army_of_Germany_1943 is a strategic COG candidate
for for Germany_1943 which is a member of
European_Axis_1943
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Modeling the identification process

To identify a center of gravity candidate for a
given scenario (e.g. Sicily_1943) one needs a
certain amount of information which is obtained
by asking a series of questions. The answer to
each question allows one to reduce the current
identification task to a more specific and
simpler one. This process continues until one
has enough information about an entity in the
scenario to identify it as a center of gravity
candidate.
T1
S1
Q1

A1n
A11
S1n
T1n
S11
T11a
Q11a

A11am
A11a1

S11am
S11a1
Each leaf of the tree is a solution (a COG
candidate). The solution corresponding to a node
is the union of the solutions of its immediate
children.
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Sample modeling the Sicily_1943 scenario
1
I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Sicily_1943 scenario
Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943
scenario?
Anglo_allies_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for
Anglo_allies_1943
Is Anglo_allies_1943 a single member force or a
multi-member force?
Anglo_allies_1943 is a multi-member force
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Anglo_allies_1943which is a multi-member force
continues on
2
European_Axis_1943
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Sample modeling (cont. from )
1
2
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Anglo_allies_1943which is a multi-member force
What type of strategic COG candidates should I
consider for a multi-member force?
I consider the candidates corresponding to the
multi-member nature of the force
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates
corresponding tothe multi-member nature of the
force for the Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
3
I consider the candidates corresponding to the
members of the multi-member force
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates
corresponding tothe members of the
Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
6
I consider the candidates corresponding toother
sources of strength and power of Anglo_allies_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates
corresponding to other sources of strength and
power of Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
11
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Sample modeling (cont. from )
2
3
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates
corresponding tothe multi_member nature of the
force for the Anglo_allies_1943
What type of strategic COG candidates should I
considerfor the multi_member nature of the force?
I consider the relationships between the members
of the force
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect tothe relationships between the members
of the Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
4
I consider the type of operations being conducted
by the members of the force
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the type of operationsbeing conducted
by the members of the Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
5
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Sample modeling (cont. from )
3
4
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect tothe relationships between the members
of the Anglo_allies_1943
Is the Anglo_allies_1943 an equal partner or a
dominant partner alliance or coalition?
Anglo_allies_1943 is an equal partner alliance
Therefore I conclude that
The will of the Anglo_allies_1943 is a strategic
COG candidatefor Anglo_allies_1943, an equal
partner alliance
57
Sample modeling (cont. from )
3
5
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the type of operationsbeing conducted
by the members of the Anglo_allies_1943
Which is the primary force element that will
conduct the campaign for Anglo_allies_1943?
Allied_forces_operations_Husky
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the type of operations being conducted
by Allied_forces_operations_Husky, the primary
force element of the Anglo_allies_1943
Is Allied_forces_operations_Husky made up of a
true single group or are there subgroups?
Allied_forces_operations_Husky is made up of
several subgroups
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the type of operationsbeing conducted
by Allied_forces_operations_Husky, a multi_group
forcewhich is the primary force element of the
Anglo_allies_1943
What types of operations are being conducted
bythe subgroups of Allied_forces_operations_Husky
?
Combined and joint operations
Therefore I conclude that
The cooperation between the subgroups of
Allied_forces_operations_Husky, which
conduct combined and joint operations is a
strategic COG candidate for Anglo_allies_1943
58
Sample modeling (cont. from )
2
6
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates
corresponding tothe members of the
Anglo_allies_1943
Which is a member of the Anglo_allies_1943?
Britain_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for
Britain_1943,a member of Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
7
US_1943
59
Sample modeling (cont. from )
6
7
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for
Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943
What type of strategic COG candidates should I
consider for Britain_1943?
I consider strategic COG candidates with respect
to the controlling element of Britain_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the controllingelement of
Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
8
I consider strategic COG candidates with respect
to the governing element of Britain_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the governingelement of Britain_1943,
a member of Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
9
I consider strategic COG candidates with respect
to the civilization of Britain_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the civilizationof Britain_1943, a
member of Anglo_allies_1943
continues on
10
I consider strategic COG candidates with respect
to other sourcesof strength and power of
Britain_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to other sources of strength and power
of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943
60
Sample modeling (cont. from )
7
8
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the controllingelement of
Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943
Who or what is the primary controlling element of
Britain_1943,setting its objectives and making
the main decisions?
PM_Winston_Churchill
Therefore I conclude that
PM_Winston_Churchill is a strategic COG candidate
for Britain_1943,a parliamentary democracy and a
member of Anglo_allies_1943
61
Sample modeling (cont. from )
7
9
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the governingelement of Britain_1943,
a member of Anglo_allies_1943
What type of governing body controls Britain_1943?
Britain_1943 is a parliamentary democracy
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the governing element of
Britain_1943,a parliamentary democracy and a
member of Anglo_allies_1943
Who or what is the dominant governing element of
this parliamentary democracy?
The will of the people
Therefore I conclude that
The will of the people of Britain_1943 is a
strategic COG candidate for Britain_1943,a
parliamentary democracy and a member of
Anglo_allies_1943
62
Sample modeling (cont. from )
7
10
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the civilizationof Britain_1943, a
member of Anglo_allies_1943
At what level is the civilization of Britain_1943
organized?
Britain_1943 is an industrial civilization
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates with
respect to the industrial civilizationof
Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943
Who or what is a strategically critical
industrial civilization element in Britain_1943?
Industrial_capacity_of_Britain_1943
Therefore I conclude that
Industrial_capacity_of_Britain_1943 is a
strategic COG candidatefor Britain_1943, a
member of Anglo_allies_1943
63
Sample modeling (cont. from )
2
11
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates
corresponding to other sources of strength and
power of Anglo_allies_1943
Which or what is a source of strength and power
of Anglo_Allies_1943?
Strategic_mobility_of_Anglo_Allies_1943
Therefore I conclude that
Strategic_mobility_of_Anglo_Allies_1943 is a
strategic COG candidate for Anglo_allies_1943
64
Demonstration of the Disciple-CoG agent
DiscipleCoGDemo
65
Guidelines for the modeling process
General guidelines
Specific guidelines
66
General guidelines

• Partition the domain into classes of problems.
• Select representative problems for each class.
• Model one class at a time.
• Model one example solution at a time.
• Organize the top level part of the problem
  solving tree to identify the class of the problem.

67
Partition the domain into classes of problems
Workaround Domain
Workaround damaged tunnels
Workaround damaged bridges with fording
Workaround damaged bridges with fixed bridges
Workaround damage
Workaround damaged bridges
Workaround damaged bridges with floating bridges
Workaround damaged bridges with rafts
Workaround damaged roads
68
Partition the domain into classes of problems
COA Domain
Each principle and tenet leads to a different
class of critiquing task.
69
Partition the domain into classes of problems
CoG Domain
Major theater war
Counter insurgency
Type of scenario
Counter terrorism
Peace keeping
Drug/law enforcement
70
Specific guidelines for the modeling process
1. Identify the problem to be solved, then form
a task name by writing a clear, thorough, natural
language sentence describing that
problem. 2. Follow each task or sub-task with a
single, concise, question relevant to solving the
named task. - Ask small, incremental questions
that are likely to have a single category of
answer (but not necessarily a single answer).
This usually means ask who, or what, or
where, or what kind of, or is this or that
etc., not complex questions such as who and
what, or what and where, 3. Follow each
question with one or more answers to that
question. - Express answers as complete
sentences, restating key elements of the question
in the answer. - Even well formed, simple
questions are likely to generate multiple
answers. Select the answer that corresponds to
the example solution being modeled and continue
down that branch. Go back and explore possible
branches in a solution tree when you are ready to
model a new example solution.
71
Specific guidelines for the modeling process
(cont.)
4. Evaluate the complexity of each question and
its answers. When a question leads to apparently
overly complex answers, especially answers that
contain an and condition, rephrase the question
in a simpler, more incremental manner leading to
simpler answers. 5. For each answer, form a new
sub-task, or several sub-tasks, or a solution
corresponding to that answer, by writing a clear,
thorough, natural language sentence describing
the new sub-tasks or solution. - To the extent
that it is practical, incorporate key relevant
phrases and elements of preceding task names in
sub-task names to portray the experts chain of
problem solving thought and the accumulation of
relevant knowledge. - If the answer has led to
several sub-tasks, then model their solutions in
a depth-first order.
72
Specific guidelines for the modeling process
(cont.)

• 6. After completing a solution tree for an
  example solution, revisit the potential branches
  of that tree to model additional example
  solutions within that category of solutions,
  reusing existing model components to the greatest
  extent possible.
• Utilize the tools and learning ability of
  Disciple to the greatest extent possible to
  minimize the amount of modeling required.
• Only completely model solutions that are unique
  in their entirety. Entirely unique solutions
  will be rare.

73
Illustration of the guidelines
I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Sicily_1943 scenario
Which are the opposing forces in the Sicily_1943
scenario?
Rephrase this question in a simpler, more
incremental manner, leading to simpler answers
Anglo_allies_1943 and European_Axis_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for
Anglo_allies_1943
Identify the strategic COG candidates for
European_Axis_1943
I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Sicily_1943 scenario
Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943
scenario?
Anglo_allies_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for
Anglo_allies_1943
74
Illustration of the guidelines
I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Sicily_1943 scenario
Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943
scenario?
Anglo_allies_1943
Disciple can develop the modeling for
European_Axis_1943 by following the model for
Anglo_Allies_1943
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for
Anglo_allies_1943
Is Anglo_allies_1943 a single member force or a
multi-member force?
Anglo_allies_1943 is a multi-member force
Therefore I need to
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Anglo_allies_1943which is a multi-member force

European_Axis_1943
75
A systematic approach to agent teaching
Identify the strategic COG candidates for the
Sicily_1943 scenario
Anglo_allies_1943
European_Axis_1943
other factors
8
other factors
alliance
alliance
4
individual states
individual states
1
5
Italy_1943
Germany_1943
US_1943
Britain_1943
7
6
2
3