South Carolina

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South Carolina Sentencing Reform Commission Data-D
riven Decision Making
John Speir, Ph.D. Applied Research Services, Inc.
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Presentation Objectives

• Sentence Reform Goals 2001 Commission
• Understanding Prison Population Dynamics
• Population Drivers Preliminary Look at
  Pre-Conviction Data

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Presentation Objectives

• What is Evidence-based reform?
• Simple Theory vs. Hard Reality
• Reform vs. Statutory Tinkering
• What Data Will We Examine?
• Testing our Proposals?
• Reform without Guidelines as a Goal?

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Selected 2001 Guideline Goals

• Discretion, fairness, and consistency
• Management tool to better predict plan
  correctional growth
• Encourage intermediate sanctions

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Just Understand the Buckets
Do Not Fill Above Line
County Jails
DOC Intake
Diversion
Solicitors
State Prisons
Pre-Release
Earned Credits
Parole
Courtesy Tim Carr
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Sentence Reform Looks Easy In Theory
Population Drivers

• Demographics/Structural Factors
• Crime Arrest Trends
• Filings/Convictions
• Admissions New Court/ Revocations
• Length-of-Stay

Prison Population
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Not Easy In Reality
SentencingPractices
Sentencing Reform Policies
Crime Arrests Convictions
Prison Population
Adapted from Wicharaya (1995)
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Review of Population Drivers

• State Demographics/Social Structural
• Crime Arrest Trends
• Criminal Filings/Convictions

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Review of Population Drivers

• Admissions New Court Revocations
• Length-of-Stay
• Correctional Alternatives Turned into Supplements
• Unexpected System Response

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State Census Projections

• State Demographics
• Crime Arrest Trends
• Criminal Filings/Convictions

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Census Projections 2009-2015
Change Age Groups 17-24
25-30 SC -2 4 GA
4 6 NC 7
15 US -3 6
Exercise caution using Projections in 2000 which
are based on 2000 Census U.S. Census never
released the final projections in 2005 Next
Census Projections Not Expected Until 2014
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Violent Crime and Incarceration Rate
Violent Crime Rate
Incarceration Rate
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UCR Violent Crime Rate vs. Correctional
Population Rates (per 100,000 pop)
1200
Violent Crime
900
Incarceration Rate
600
Admission Rate
300
0
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2007
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Problem with Rates We Do Not Incarcerate
Rates But People
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Correctional Population
Total Inmate Pop
13 Since 2000
Admissions
26 Since 2000
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Filings, Dispositions, And Pending
Change 2000-07 Filings
16 Dispositions 5 Pending
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Source Judicial Department
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Percent Convictions ()
No Significant Change Over Last 5 years
(40 to 42)
Source Judicial Department
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Understanding the Drop in Crime No Silver Bullets

• Age-out of Baby Boomers
• Abatement of the crack epidemic in late
  1980s-early 1990s
• Increased incapacitation
• Police strategies
• Domestic Violence prevention programs
  on-the-spot arrest policies

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Understanding the Drop in Crime

• Economic Conditions and Low Unemployment

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The goal is manage the prison population
rather than it managing the State
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Convicted Offenders Fall into 3 Basic Groups
?
Absolutely Prison
No Prison
Offense Offender Severity
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Admission and Length-of-Stay
Prison Admissions X Length-of-Stay
Prison Population
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Alternatives to Incarceration or Correctional
Supplements?
Prison Admissions
Court Imposed Sentences
New Program Alternative
Expensive Probation Not True Diversion Potential
Prison Accelerant
Probation Admissions
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What is Evidence-Based Reform How We Do It?
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Evidence.

• Use the best available data
• Use tools to project possible impact and
  unanticipated consequences
• Avoid emotion and wait until the data are
  presented
• Weigh the data against SRC goals.

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Simulation

• Can describe analyze the behavior of a system
• Can answer what if questions
• Eliminates the emotion in decision-making

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Do We Have the Right Data?

• Department of Corrections 5 Years of Admissions,
  Active, and Release Population
• Probation, Parole, and Pardons Admissions,
  Revocations, and Parole Hearing Outcomes
• Judicial Department 10-Years Indictments and
  Dispositions

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Commission Data?

• SLED/Budget Control Board Computerized Criminal
  History (CCH)- rapsheet repository
• Statistical Analysis Center (SAC)
• National Incident-based Reporting System

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Tools Simulating the Potential Impact
Imitate the operation of a real world system
over time. Jerry Banks, 1998. The Handbook of
Simulation.
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Defining a Projected Impact
Designed not to predict what will happenbut
rather explore what would happen if assumptions
unfold in different ways.. Donella Meadows
Thinking in Systems A Primer, 2008
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Simulation

• Can test every aspect of a proposed change
  without committing resources
• Can explore new policies or operating procedures
  without the expense disruption of experimenting
  on the real system

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Demonstration
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Concepts Ideas Other States
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Admissions Front-End

• Alternatives to incarceration based on best
  practices
• Risk Assessment worksheets for alternative
  placement (additional offender information)
• Bench book (electronic) to provide summary of
  statewide practices in similarly situated cases
  (advisory only)
• Revise statutory eligibility criteria

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Admissions Front-End

• Statutory revisions limiting prison as an option
• Statutory prohibition against prison for
  probation/technical violators
• Pre-adjudication alternatives coupled with
  rehabilitative obligations

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Length-of-Stay Front-End

• Offense reclassification
• Redefine violent offense
• Bench book (electronic) to provide summary of
  statewide practices in similarly situated cases
  (advisory only)
• Statutory revisions limiting maximum prison term
  (or reclassification)

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Length-of-Stay Back-End (Prison Release
Mechanisms)

• Parole release decision-making
• Objective parole release guidelines
• Short-term incarceration with intermediate
  sanctions to follow (target inmates with longer
  prison terms)
• Different earned time credits for different
  inmate classes
• Statutory revisions limiting maximum prison term

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Admissions Back-End

• Sentence Conversions following DOC classification

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Discussion
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