Technological Change

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??????????????????????????Technological Change

• Chapter 3

2
Competitiveness
Competitive Advantage
Innovation
Knowledge
3
InnovationLinkage between Knowledge and
Productivity
Competitiveness
Productivity
Knowledge Acquisition
Learning
4
Technology v. Science

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  ??????????????????????????? 2 ?????????
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Technological Change

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????? (How to do thing)
  ?????????????????? (How to make thing)
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????

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Technology

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Technology

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
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Technology Cycle

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
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• ????????????????????????? ????????????????????????
  ????????? ????????????????????????????????????????
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Technological Change
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Important Technological Change

• 1901 -1939
• Air Conditioner
• First Flight (Wright)
• Model T (Ford)
• Liquid-fueled rocket
• FM radio
• Jet engine
• Xerography
• Hellicopter

• 1940 -1949
• Color TV
• Manhattan Project
• General purpose,
• electronic, digital computer
• Supersonic flight
• Transistor
• Instant Camera

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Important Technological Change

• 1950 -1969
• Sputnik (USSR)
• NASA
• Integrated circuit
• Operable laser
• First man in space
• Telstar Satellite
• Fiber optics
• Apollo XI

• 1970
• Microprocessor
• Recombinant DNA
• Laser printer
• MRI scanner
• Space shuttle
• Scanning tunneling microscope

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Important Technological Change

• 1990
• Internet
• MP3
• Flat Screen TV
• Digital camera
• 3G Mobile phone
• Hybrid Car

• 2000
• Nano-machine ?
• GM babies ?
• Gene therapy ?
• Stem cells?

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Scientist / Engineer / Innovator

• Scientist search for the FACT of the world
• Engineer create technology to be the best
  solution for the situation, by applying knowledge
  from scientist
• Innovator adopt, adapt and develop new
  technology to meet market

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Technology Cycle

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????????? 50 ??
• Kondratiev Cycle ???? Long Wave Cycle

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Long Wave Cycle

• Developed by Kondratiev in the 1920s
• Comprises a 50 year cycle of economic activity
• Began with the industrial revolution and has now
  reached a fifth wave
• Stretches from recovery through prosperity and
  recession phases to a depression phase
• Each cycle is associated with a new transforming
  technology (Schumpeter,1939) i.e. technological
  change
• Examples include steam power, electricity,
  computers etc

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Long Wave Cycle

• Schumpeter ??????? ???????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???? Technological change (???????????????????)

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Long Wave Cycles

19
Long Wave Cycles

• ????????? ?????????????????????????
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• ???????????????????????????????? 30
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• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
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  ??

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The Long Wave Cycle
Economic activity
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Phases of the Long Wave Cycle

• Recovery
• Increased innovation, new industries emerge,
  entrepreneurial
• Prosperity
• Diffusion of innovations, rising living
  standards, expansion
• Recession
• Risky investments, diminishing returns,
  spectacular collapses
• Depression
• Low growth, rising unemployment, consolidation,
  new industries mature, consolidation, intense
  price competition, inventions discoveries of
  next phase

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Significance of Long Waves

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????? (e.g. assembly lines)
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????
• ??????????????????????? ???? semiconductors
• ????????????????????????????????????? (e.g.
  tabulators, telegram)

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Innovation and the Long Wave

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????? ???? ????????????????????????????????????
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• ?????????????????????????????????
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• ????????????? ???? ?????????????????
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  ???????????????
• ???????? ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ? Kondratiev ?????????

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5th Kondratiev

• 1980s onwards
• Transforming technologies Information
  Communication Technologies
• Begins with development of personal computer
• 1990 creation of WWW and Internet becomes a
  reality
• Late 1990s sees Dot Com bubble
• Late 1990s - diffusion of the Internet especially
  through B2B Ecommerce
• Ecommerce leads to big growth in productivity
• Leads to changes in working lives, business
  models, leisure patterns, structure of business
  organisations etc.

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Implications of the Long Wave Cycle

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Implications of the Long Wave Cycle

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????? ????
  transforming technologies (???????????????? ?????
  ?????? ???????????? ???????? ??????)
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????? ???? ??????????????????????????????????????
  ? (e-commerce, outsource, alliances, virtual
  organization)

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Implications of the Long Wave Cycle

• ???????????????????? 5 ???????????????????????????
  ????????????????????? ???????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????? 1
  ????????????????????????????? (Increase in
  Production) ?????????????????? (Increases in
  Productivity)

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Implications of the Long Wave Cycle

• 2. ????????????????????????????????????????? 2
  ??????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? ?????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????
• 3. ????????????????????????????????????????? 3
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????? Federick W. Taylor
  ????????????????????????????????????????
  (Scientific Management) ??????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????

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Implications of the Long Wave Cycle

• 4. ????????????????????????????????????????? 4
  ???????????????????????????????????? (Mass
  Production) ???????????????? Henry Ford
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????? ??????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? (Vertical Integrated
  Corporation

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Implications of the Long Wave Cycle

• 5. ????????????????????????????????????????? 5
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????? (Alliance)
  ??????????????????? (Joint Ventures)
  ????????????????????????????? (Outsourcing)

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Technological Paradigms

• Technological paradigm
• Sets the rules of the game for innovation
• Defines the field of enquiry
• Forms the technological domain within which
  technologies evolve

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Technological Paradigms

• ??????????????????????? ??? ??????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????? ???? ???????????????????
  ???????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ???????

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Technological Paradigms

• ????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????? (Radical Innovation) ?????????????????????
  ???