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Sustainable Development and Climate Change

South African Case Study Harald Winkler
13-14 February 2005
Energy Research CentreUniversity of Cape Town
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Major initiatives in SA energy sector

• New electricity generation capacity
• First tender in 2005 recommissioning mothballed
• 17 000 MW by 2020
• PBMR nuclear, gas, imported hydro, FBC,
  renewables
• Electrification
• Continued goal of universal access
• and affordability poverty tariff
• Southern African Power Pool
• Interconnectors under NEPAD
• Importing hydro from DR Congo
• Natural gasMozambique pipeline, LNG, power plant
• Renewables 10 000 GWh target, biofuels, SWH
• Energy efficiency 12 target
• Institutions single energy regulator, National
  Energy Research Institute
• Climate change response strategy SD Seminar

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African grid map
Source NER 2003, citing Eskom
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South Africa country study energy sector issues

• Fuel mix for electricity supply
• Examine options
• Renewables (target 10 000 GWh)
• natural gas
• imported hydro
• cleaner coal (fluidised bed combustion), and
• PBMR nuclear
• Methodological issues
• consider government base case (IRP)
• in all cases, assume 99 electrification by 2010
• see impact of policy options on cost, local and
  global pollutants
• Coordinated by Harald, input by modeling group

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South Africa country study adaptation policies

• Linkages between CC impacts and energy
• Hydro potential in SADC
• Inga Falls in DR Congo has potential 40 GW
• 6 of water demand in Africa 15 of electricity
  in SSA (dominated by thermal in SA)
• Investigate vulnerability to changes in run-off
• Dependent on availability of down-scaled GCMs
  for the catchment
• Seasonal effects
• Adaptation options what responses are possible?
• Initial scoping by Pierre
• identify need for further research