Effect of development on land management

1
Effect of development on land management

• A literature comparison
• Margaret Hamilton
• Econ 539
• March 11, 2009

2
population density and timber management

• Wear, Liu, Foreman, and Sheffield
• Examine how expanding populations in western
  Virginia may influence the management of forests
  in 1999.
• Munn, Barlow, Evans, and Cleaves
• Examine how the frequency of timber harvesting
  is influenced by urbanization in Mississippi and
  Alabama in 2002.
• Kline, Azuma Alig
• Examine how population growth in western
• and eastern Oregon affects land management
• activities in 2004 and 2007.

3
similar logit models different variables

• Wear et al. used
• POP SITE-INDEX SLOPE ACCESS-EASY
  ACCESS-HARD
• To describe the comparative advantage
• for commercial forestry.

4
similar logit models different variables.

• Munn et al. used
• HARVEST-HISTORY, SLOPE, TYPE(PINE, HDWD, MIXED,
  OPEN), SITE-INDEX, INVENTORY, SIZEFOREST, ROAD,
  DISTANCE-URBAN, DIST2, POPDEN, INCOME, OWNERSHIP
  (NF, PUB, NIPF).
• Adding socioeconomic factors
• to describe evidence of harvesting.

5
similar logit models different variables.

• Kline et al. used
• BASAL AREAt, BASAL AREAt-1, SITE INDEX, SLOPE,
  ROAD DISTANCE, HARDWOOD, NIPF, BUILDING DENSITYt
  , BUILDING DENSITYt-1.
• To test evidence of stocking,
• harvest, precommercial thinning and
• post-harvest planting.

6
Relationships

• Wear et al. looked for relationship between
• population density and commercial forestry
• Using Census and expert opinion
• Found statistical significance
• Population reduces timberland area and growing
  stock volumes by roughly 40 from their measured
  values.

7

• Munn et al. looked for relationships between
• population density and
• Proximity to cities
• Contiguous forest area
• Harvesting
• Using Census and Forest Service data
• They found all were statistically significant and
  concluded that changes at the urban-rural
  interface may have important influence on the
  future timber supply.

8

• Kline et al. looked for relationships between
  building density and
• Stocking
• Harvesting
• Pre-commercial thinning
• Post-harvest planting
• using Forest Service data
• Found statistical significance in stocking,
  thinning and planting in western Oregon.
• But concluded magnitude of significance may not
  warrant strong conclusions.

• Kline et al. say the results may be statistically
  significant, but the magnitude is small.

9

• Reasons for different findings
• Studies conducted in different regions
• Virginia
• Alabama/Mississippi
• Western and eastern Oregon.
• Population was represented with diffnt data
• Census data was used by Wear et al. and Munn et
  al.
• Building density data was used by Kline et al.
• Dependent variables differed among studies
• Each study was looking for different evidence
• of forest management.

10
conclusions

• Wear et al. concluded that concurrent impacts on
  both timber demand and supply could result in
  increasing market scarcity and continued upward
  pressure on timber prices.
• Munn et al. concluded that changes at the
  urban-rural interface may have important
  influence on the future timber supply.
• Kline et al. agreed there is potential for less
  forestry investment on private forestlands due
  to economies of scale in timber production, and
  change in forest owner characteristics and
  objectives.
• Policy implications
• as the U.S. Forest Service attempts to provide
  continuous supply of timber and other land uses,
  it will need to consider potential decreases in
  timber supply from development and new management
  activities of new owners.

11

• References
• Kline, J. D. Azuma, D. L. 2007. Evaluating
  forest land development effects on private
  forestry in eastern Oregon. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-572.
  Portland, OR U.S. Department of Agriculture,
  Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research
  Station. 18 p.
• Kline, J. D. Azuma, D. L. Alig, R. J. 2004.
  Population growth, urban expansion, and private
  forestry in western Oregon. Forest Science 50(1)
  p. 33-43.
• Munn, I. A. Barlow, S. A. Evans, D. L. and
  Cleaves, D. 2002. Urbanization's impact on timber
  harvesting in the south central United States.
  Journal of Environmental Management 64, 65-76.
• Wear, D. N. Liu, R. Foreman, J. M. Sheffield,
  R. M. 1999. The effects of population growth on
  timber management and inventories in Virginia.
  Forest Ecology and Management 118 107-115.