Initial meeting, EPSRC CSP

1
Forecasting and inventory management Bridging
the gap
Opening session Aris A. Syntetos and John E.
Boylan
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Outline
Research background
1
EPSRC EP/D062942/1 (Aris)
2
EPSRC EP/F012632/1 (Aris and John)
3
Agenda for our meeting
4
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Research background (1 of 3)

• Johns research with Roy Johnston in forecasting
  and stock control, with particular emphasis on
  intermittent demands
• Aris PhD under Johns supervision Forecasting
  of intermittent demand
• Our work necessitated the clarification of what
  is intermittent demand in operational terms?

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Research background (...2 of 3)

• Consequent work in the classification of demand
  patterns for forecasting and stock control
  purposes

Williams (1984)
Eaves and Kingsman (2004)
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Research background (...3 of 3)

• Joint work with John Croston resulted in the
  proposal of a theoretically sound categorisation
  solutions, for forecasting purposes only

• Further work into this area demonstrated the
  complexity arising due to the interaction between
  forecasting and stock control.

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EPSRC EP/D062942/1

• On the development of theory-informed
  operationalised definitions of demand patterns
• A simulation intensive investigation that aims at
  the development of useful, universally
  applicable, rules for classifying demand patterns
• Theory-data loops to reflect the complexity of
  the problem and the interaction between
  forecasting and stock control
• We will be talking more about this project later
  today Forecasting stock control interactions I
  (Aris and Zied)
• This is a 2-year project started last October.
• Very fruitful research area four papers already
  submitted for peer review
• John is contributing as part of the project
  review team.

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EP/D062942/1 - Industrial collaborators
Brother International, UK
Computer Science Corporation
Valves Instrument Plus, Ltd
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Collaboration for Success through People (CSP)

• EPSRC call under the CSP initiative for
  expanding the scope of curent projects through
  the exploitation of inter-disciplinary
  opportunities
• Funds were made available for people based
  activities and exchanges
• That resulted in our joint proposal (Aris and
  John) that led to our project
• This is a 9-month project with no specific
  deliverables, other than exploring and hopefully
  utilising potential synergies, establishing
  longer-term contacts and identifying promising
  new avenues for further research
• The aim of this project is to bring together the
  strengths of statistical and judgemental
  forecasting with the complementary benefits of
  System Dynamics (SD), to initiate a new research
  agenda for inventory modelling.

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Objectives - EP/F012632/1

• The aim is reflected on the following objectives
• To explore how statistical forecasting models
  (which focus on mean demand and forecast error
  variability) and System Dynamics (SD) models
  (which focus on changes in mean demand) can be
  integrated.
• To explore the effects of judgemental forecasting
  (or judgemental adjustments to statistical
  forecasts) on levels and variability of forecasts
  and the potential for their incorporation in
  System Dynamics models.
• To extend this investigation to examine the
  effect on inventory systems, for a range of
  inventory policies.
• To examine how SD can be used to inform and
  educate those involved in judgemental forecasting.

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Collaborators
Academics Institution Expertise
Professor John Boylan BCUC Co-ordination
team Dr Aris Syntetos Salford
University Co-ordination team Dr Stephen
Disney Cardiff University System Dynamics
Professor Henk Akkermans Tilburg
University System Dynamics Professor Leo
Strijbosch Tilburg University Forecasting/Inven
tory Dr Tarkan Tan Eindhoven
University Inventory Modelling Professor Nada
Sanders Texas Christian Univ. Judgemental
Forecasting Dr S (Vish) Viswanathan Nanyang
University Forecasting/Inventory
Practitioners Company Specialisation Dr
Wolfgang Schutz SAF AG Forecasting
software Dr Stephan Kolassa SAF AG
Forecasting software Dr Bob Eberlein Ventana
Systems, Inc System Dynamics Software
Reviewers Institution Expertise Professor
Paul Goodwin Bath University Judgemental
forecasting Professor Brian Dangerfield Salford
University System Dynamics Supporters Zied
Babai, Mohammad Ali and Mona Mohammadipour
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Meetings and dissemination

• Physical meetings to be conducted between John
  and Aris and the other collaborators during the
  course of the project
• We have also introduced web-based conference
  communications in order to i) keep the costs
  down ii) introduce some flexibility and the
  possibility for ad-hoc virtual meetings
• A web-site hosted by the University of Salford
  has already been created
• We are looking at making this facility an
  interactive mode of communicating and posting
  ideas
• Progressive incorporation of the outcomes of our
  meetings, research findings etc
• Any ideas that you may have in improving this
  facility would be very welcomed
• Dissemination of our work through System
  Dynamics Review (Wiley) and International Journal
  of Production Economics (Elsevier)

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Initial meeting

• One-hour discussion sessions where the group can
  be updated on latest developments, reflecting
  your perspective and expertise
• Open and relaxed discussions allowing the time
  for constructive comments to be made and explore
  the synergies between the various areas
• As we are all often working within fairly well
  defined small research communities, basic
  questions would not do any harm on the contrary
  they may facilitate a better understanding of the
  common ground between us
• Breakfast is served from 07.30 08.45 am
• The dinner tonight is at 07.00 pm

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Proposed timetable

• Sessions (Tuesday) Facilitator(s)
• Opening session John and Aris
• System Dynamics Brian
• Software perspective (Forecasting) Stephan
• Forecasting stock control interactions I Aris
  and Zied
• Forecasting stock control interactions II Leo
• Forecasting stock control interactions
  III Tarkan
• Session (Wednesday) Facilitator(s)
• System Dynamics Bullwhip I Steve
• System Dynamics Bullwhip II John and Mohammad
• Concluding session John and Aris

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Looking forward to an exciting project
Questions ? http//www.mams.salford.ac
.uk/CORAS/Projects/Bridging_The_Gap/